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What's your non-conference prediction?

MJE

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Sep 5, 2001
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I got:
- Southern Illinois : 97% likelihood of a W
- Fla International: 98%
- Western Kentucky: 65%
- @Wake Forest: 60%

I think that puts us at at least 3-1 entering the O$U game.
 
I got:
- Southern Illinois : 97% likelihood of a W
- Fla International: 98%
- Western Kentucky: 65%
- @Wake Forest: 60%

I think that puts us at at least 3-1 entering the O$U game.
October 3rd.......4-0 O$U versus 4-0 upstart IU.
 
I think 4 and 0 is a real possibility, although the Western Kentucky game will be a shootout and a tough test for our inexperienced secondary. If the Hoosiers can get some pressure on their QB Brandon Doughty, it would definitely improve our chances. He's not what you would call a scrambling threat. Wake Forest also has some nice pieces, namely tight end Cam Serigne, who made 54 grabs for 531 yards and five TD's last season. Also, while FIU doesn't concern me as a whole, they have a talented TE in Jonnu Smith, who led all tight ends in all major receiving categories.
 
I really hate to come off as cynical, but I see 2-2.

I do think we beat Southern Illinois going away.

Western Kentucky has a strong pass offense that could torch our new secondary. Gun to my head, we lose that game. Their offense is *fantastic*, and they're trained in winning shoot-outs.

I'm not confident in winning a game on the road, even against a weak Wake Forest team.

I don't think the FIU game is a shoe-in - their defense is actually really strong against the run, and forced a ton of turnovers last year. They actually could be pretty tough this year. Check out Bill Connelly's prediction for more. They had a top 25 pass rush and top 20 defense on passing downs, both stats we were *terrible* in last year on our offense (even before Sudfeld's injury).

I could see 3-1 if the cornerback situation shakes out better than we expect. If the defense is a tire fire (as it's been for a few years now), I could see 1-3.

Considering the quality of these teams 4 and 0
You're wrong here. Western Kentucky would beat Purdue and Rutgers 8 times out of 10.
 
I really hate to come off as cynical, but I see 2-2.

I do think we beat Southern Illinois going away.

Western Kentucky has a strong pass offense that could torch our new secondary. Gun to my head, we lose that game. Their offense is *fantastic*, and they're trained in winning shoot-outs.

I'm not confident in winning a game on the road, even against a weak Wake Forest team.

I don't think the FIU game is a shoe-in - their defense is actually really strong against the run, and forced a ton of turnovers last year. They actually could be pretty tough this year. Check out Bill Connelly's prediction for more. They had a top 25 pass rush and top 20 defense on passing downs, both stats we were *terrible* in last year on our offense (even before Sudfeld's injury).

I could see 3-1 if the cornerback situation shakes out better than we expect. If the defense is a tire fire (as it's been for a few years now), I could see 1-3.


You're wrong here. Western Kentucky would beat Purdue and Rutgers 8 times out of 10.
If IU starts out 2-2, Wilson won't keep his job after 2015. Not saying I favor that, but you can't go 2-2 against that OOC schedule in Year 5 and get to Year 6.
 
If IU starts out 2-2, Wilson won't keep his job after 2015. Not saying I favor that, but you can't go 2-2 against that OOC schedule in Year 5 and get to Year 6.
It's actually a tougher conference schedule than it might have seemed like when Glass and co scheduled it. I think 2-2 is more likely than it is not.

FIU is a quickly improving roster. It's a major faux-pas, though, anyway. As a general policy, if you're scheduling a cupcake, they should never, ever be from the Southeast. Even the minnows down there have serious speed from local guys who fell through the cracks. FIU will have a faster roster than we will.

Western Kentucky is a fantastic mid-major program. They're well coached, and have a system that they believe in. If our offense isn't ready for a shootout, those guys could take us to the woodshed.
 
I really hate to come off as cynical, but I see 2-2.

I do think we beat Southern Illinois going away.

Western Kentucky has a strong pass offense that could torch our new secondary. Gun to my head, we lose that game. Their offense is *fantastic*, and they're trained in winning shoot-outs.

I'm not confident in winning a game on the road, even against a weak Wake Forest team.

I don't think the FIU game is a shoe-in - their defense is actually really strong against the run, and forced a ton of turnovers last year. They actually could be pretty tough this year. Check out Bill Connelly's prediction for more. They had a top 25 pass rush and top 20 defense on passing downs, both stats we were *terrible* in last year on our offense (even before Sudfeld's injury).

I could see 3-1 if the cornerback situation shakes out better than we expect. If the defense is a tire fire (as it's been for a few years now), I could see 1-3.


You're wrong here. Western Kentucky would beat Purdue and Rutgers 8 times out of 10.

You don't see us winning a game on the road? Let's see, last year we beat the SEC East champs on the road and led the eventual NC late in the game on the road with a true freshman qb. If you are basing your opinion on history, then recent history says you are wrong. 4-0
 
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You don't see us winning a game on the road? Let's see, last year we beat the SEC East champs on the road and led the eventual NC late in the game on the road with a true freshman qb. If you are basing your opinion on history, then recent history says you are wrong. 4-0
I think our defense will be worse than it was this past season. We've currently got an Antonio Banderas blow-up doll and a chair in the top of the depth chart at CB. We lost *everything* at that spot.
 
I think our defense will be worse than it was this past season. We've currently got an Antonio Banderas blow-up doll and a chair in the top of the depth chart at CB. We lost *everything* at that spot.
Not necessarily true. You're always so negative.

I recall Fant playing CB quite a bit late in the season and specifically remember a few PBU's. I also think Tyler Green will be a nice addition. An unknown is what Padmore can contribute. If what I hear is correct then he could be a nice surprise at the other corner opposite Fant.
 
I think our defense will be worse than it was this past season. We've currently got an Antonio Banderas blow-up doll and a chair in the top of the depth chart at CB. We lost *everything* at that spot.

You may be right, but it's hard to say until you see them. How does everything mesh? The second year in the new system should help. If the O is 2013 like then a marginal improvement on D from that year could lead to several wins.
 
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Not necessarily true. You're always so negative.

I recall Fant playing CB quite a bit late in the season and specifically remember a few PBU's. I also think Tyler Green will be a nice addition. An unknown is what Padmore can contribute. If what I hear is correct then he could be a nice surprise at the other corner opposite Fant.
Hey, think whatever you want, but I'm absolutely not categorically negative. If you'd read any of my posts (or heard my podcasts) before last season, I was projecting major, major success last year, based on my numbers and what I saw.

This year, looking at the roster and projecting using last year's numbers, I just don't see it. I'd love to be thinking we'll see 8 wins, but it's just not reasonable based on the talent level at some key spots.

We're very talented at the lines, which I'm totally pumped about. I think our O-Line will win us some games on their own. I think we have one of the three best quarterbacks in the conference and a guy who will go on to be a good pro in Nate Sudfeld. I love our RB corps.

But we're historically weak at cornerback, and the same issues we had with the passing game (inexperience and question marks at wide receiver, no backup for Nate) last year are back again this year. There's too many question marks for me to project a new normal.

I still think we'll beat Purdue by 20 this year.
 
It's actually a tougher conference schedule than it might have seemed like when Glass and co scheduled it. I think 2-2 is more likely than it is not.

FIU is a quickly improving roster. It's a major faux-pas, though, anyway. As a general policy, if you're scheduling a cupcake, they should never, ever be from the Southeast. Even the minnows down there have serious speed from local guys who fell through the cracks. FIU will have a faster roster than we will.

Western Kentucky is a fantastic mid-major program. They're well coached, and have a system that they believe in. If our offense isn't ready for a shootout, those guys could take us to the woodshed.
If you're right then Wilson is done. You can't be making sufficient progress if you go 2-2 against that schedule. No disrespect to thos teams but if IU can't beat them all, there will be a new guy next season.
 
Hey, think whatever you want, but I'm absolutely not categorically negative. If you'd read any of my posts (or heard my podcasts) before last season, I was projecting major, major success last year, based on my numbers and what I saw.

This year, looking at the roster and projecting using last year's numbers, I just don't see it. I'd love to be thinking we'll see 8 wins, but it's just not reasonable based on the talent level at some key spots.

We're very talented at the lines, which I'm totally pumped about. I think our O-Line will win us some games on their own. I think we have one of the three best quarterbacks in the conference and a guy who will go on to be a good pro in Nate Sudfeld. I love our RB corps.

But we're historically weak at cornerback, and the same issues we had with the passing game (inexperience and question marks at wide receiver, no backup for Nate) last year are back again this year. There's too many question marks for me to project a new normal.

I still think we'll beat Purdue by 20 this year.
Not sure how you saw last year as you did or how you can see this year's predictions as you do (Sudfeld as one of the top three quarterbacks in the BiG, the running back view).
 
I really hate to come off as cynical, but I see 2-2.

I do think we beat Southern Illinois going away.

Western Kentucky has a strong pass offense that could torch our new secondary. Gun to my head, we lose that game. Their offense is *fantastic*, and they're trained in winning shoot-outs.

I'm not confident in winning a game on the road, even against a weak Wake Forest team.

I don't think the FIU game is a shoe-in - their defense is actually really strong against the run, and forced a ton of turnovers last year. They actually could be pretty tough this year. Check out Bill Connelly's prediction for more. They had a top 25 pass rush and top 20 defense on passing downs, both stats we were *terrible* in last year on our offense (even before Sudfeld's injury).

I could see 3-1 if the cornerback situation shakes out better than we expect. If the defense is a tire fire (as it's been for a few years now), I could see 1-3.


You're wrong here. Western Kentucky would beat Purdue and Rutgers 8 times out of 10.
I get the concern about WKU, but come on. Wake is awful. They have no home field advantage. FIU is awful. I know we've lost plenty of games we "should" win before, but if we're ever going to go anywhere, I don't think expecting to beat these teams is too much to ask.

And we don't know what we have at CB yet.
 
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I get the concern about WKU, but come on. Wake is awful. They have no home field advantage. FIU is awful. I know we've lost plenty of games we "should" win before, but if we're ever going to go anywhere, I don't think expecting to beat these teams is too much to ask.

And we don't know what we have at CB yet.
I don't disagree at all on Wake. They were horrible last year, and don't return much. That's more of a swing game to me than the Western game (and one that we *should* win). But it's still concerning to me that Bill Connelly from SBNation projects that one as a "toss-up" - dude knows his stuff.

You're also 100% correct that CB is simply unknown at this stage, and not *yet* a negative. But when we're projecting and making guesses on next year, I take inexperience and unknowns as hard "checks" in the negative column. We lost so, so much there, and historically, we haven't been able to replace talent immediately with talent at that spot. It could definitely change, but until it does, I'm assuming that it won't.

We *should* be at a point where this schedule is an easy 4-0. I don't know that we are yet, so when making an educated guess, I'm leaning 2-2.

Edit: Only one I take issue with is that FIU looks like their defense will be very, very good this year - top 40 at least. Their offense will continue to be an abomination, but that's definitely a "strength on strength" matchup.
 
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With the talent brought in to the program the last two recruiting cycles, coupled with the veteran presence of Sudfeld, Mangieri, etc., I go with 4-0.
 
2-2 non-conference

and based on some of KW's comments, I'm not sure he gives a damn about keeping the job

I think he'd be thrilled to take $800k-1M to be somebody's OC in the SEC
 
With a healthy qb the Hoosiers could be 4-0; without, 0-4 could be a possibility.
 
Until IU football proves me wrong I will go with a 2-2 record because it always seems like we lose to teams in the non conference that we should beat.
 
Hey, think whatever you want, but I'm absolutely not categorically negative. If you'd read any of my posts (or heard my podcasts) before last season, I was projecting major, major success last year, based on my numbers and what I saw.

This year, looking at the roster and projecting using last year's numbers, I just don't see it. I'd love to be thinking we'll see 8 wins, but it's just not reasonable based on the talent level at some key spots.

We're very talented at the lines, which I'm totally pumped about. I think our O-Line will win us some games on their own. I think we have one of the three best quarterbacks in the conference and a guy who will go on to be a good pro in Nate Sudfeld. I love our RB corps.

But we're historically weak at cornerback, and the same issues we had with the passing game (inexperience and question marks at wide receiver, no backup for Nate) last year are back again this year. There's too many question marks for me to project a new normal.

I still think we'll beat Purdue by 20 this year.
I do agree with you about being nervous at backup QB and at the CB spots.
 
If you're right then Wilson is done. You can't be making sufficient progress if you go 2-2 against that schedule. No disrespect to thos teams but if IU can't beat them all, there will be a new guy next season.

Cleveland State
Richmond
Chaminade

A good team is a good team.
Western Kentucky can beat half our league on any given night.
 
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Cleveland State
Richmond
Chaminade

A good team is a good team.
Western Kentucky can beat half our league on any given night.
Perhaps, but if they beat IU in Bloomington this season, there's no basis for saying that the program is progressing. Wilson will be done.
 
Perhaps, but if they beat IU in Bloomington this season, there's no basis for saying that the program is progressing. Wilson will be done.

Based on track record, I don't even think it will be much of an upset. How many points do you expect IU to give?
 
I get the concern about WKU, but come on. Wake is awful. They have no home field advantage. FIU is awful. I know we've lost plenty of games we "should" win before, but if we're ever going to go anywhere, I don't think expecting to beat these teams is too much to ask.

And we don't know what we have at CB yet.

Past history says IU will find a way to lose a game in the OOC they should win.
 
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What comments?
I am not a huge post kinda guy but few people follow IU football as closely as I do. The job is clearly tougher than even Kevin Wilson thought. I just cringed his rookie year when he said "we're close....these football players are not that far off from what Oklahoma has". Building Indiana's football foundation and culture is not for the faint hearted. More to the point, Imo Wilson very happy here in Bloomington....not to mention his family and five kids in our school system. He is fully and totally aware of his won loss record and the various disappointments. He is also fully aware you recruit midwestern lineman and continue to build that I-75 pipeline to the Sunshine State. He has done that quite well. His players academic standing is unparalled which was one of his goals. Wilson knows he needs more w's and it should happen this year. I think what we need to be more concerned with is at the end of this season is hanging on to two of the most coveted assistants in the country.....Frey and McCullough. How many times can these guys say "no, not interested but thanks".
 
4-0. I think we go 7-5. I don't have any concerns with the offense if we stay healthy. That OL will dominate most teams and we will have a balanced attack. Patrick is as good as advertised and the stable of WR talent is the best we have ever had. Improved TE play also helps.

The secondary is scary young, but there us talent. If we don't get a pass rush, it could get ugly against good teams. But I really have a lot of confidence in Knorr.
 
4-0. I think we go 7-5. I don't have any concerns with the offense if we stay healthy. That OL will dominate most teams and we will have a balanced attack. Patrick is as good as advertised and the stable of WR talent is the best we have ever had. Improved TE play also helps.

The secondary is scary young, but there us talent. If we don't get a pass rush, it could get ugly against good teams. But I really have a lot of confidence in Knorr.

I'm with you trusting Knorr. I saw some positives in our defense last year that got overshadowed with the state of the Offense. My thought is that you will some more improvement with it being year 2 in the system in the front 7. If the defense can be strong against the run that sets up more third and longs that should benefit our backend. I'm not expecting 9 wins, but the foundation is there for 6.
 
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I think our defense will be worse than it was this past season. We've currently got an Antonio Banderas blow-up doll and a chair in the top of the depth chart at CB. We lost *everything* at that spot.

While our secondary was far from stellar last year and very well may take a step back this year, the lack of a pass rush really hung them out to dry and made look worse than they were last year.

If the pass rush improves significantly, our secondary and defense as a whole will look much better.

To me, improving the pass rush is 10x more important than finding production the secondary.
 
What comments?

When asked about keeping his job, Wilson made an off-hand, joking comment that he's not worried because OC's make pretty good money.

Its probably true on some level, but that's far from meaning "he doesn't give a damn about keeping his job" . I took it as that he's just not motivated by FEAR/DESPERATION going into the season which is the absolutely correct way to view things. I think he sounds motivated as hell - for the players, the staff, and the school
 
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I skimmed the schedule the other day in order to get my "first impression" feel for the season. 3-1 non-conference, 5-7 or 6-6 overall. 7-5 feels like the ceiling.

Those who know me know how much of an eternal optimist I am, so these lukewarm predictions probably seem out of character. I'll say this: about the time I usually start becoming pessimistic, that's when good things finally start happening.

Crap. That is making me feel optimistic.

Well, fiddlesticks.

Is it September yet?
 
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3-1 with the loss coming at the hands of Wake Forest. Why Wake? Because I am going to that game and IU is 0-3 in the games I've been to in the Wilson era.
 
Still sticking with my earlier prediction of 3 wins.....total.

We go 2-2 in the non-conference and manage to win 1 conference game somewhere at home.
 
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