What's the upside on this team?

[mushroomgod_1]

IU's RPI is #12 & poll rating is #22......of the two, I would consider #22 to be the more legit # right now....

My question for the board is not where we are right now, but what is your optimistic forecast of where we can be in the Spring?

Looking at the Butler game.....3 point win over what is arguably a top 30 team, imo......

And that was with Morgan having an amazing game---12/14, with 4/4 on 3s. Right off the bat, with just a good game from him we lose big, all other things being equal (I know, I know....). Lets say he was 8/14 with 2 3s...that would have been 18 points.

So....that's a lot of points to catch up & surpass, on the face of it, to try to crack the top 15 or so....

How to get there? Here's some thoughts....

--More urgency in the first half.....We seem to have a pretty laid back roster. There don't really seem to kick it into gear until Morgan gets them going. Is there someone else on the roster that can get these guys going early on? McRoberts, Phinisee? I do feel like it has to come from the players themselves....

--Related to above, better defense in the 1st half....the old saying is "defense travels". CAM seems to think that defense should be this team's identity....I hope they take that to heart and don't continue to wait to clamp down until we're 10 points down.....I understand teams are never going to play with equal intensity over 40 minutes...I think they can double the time they are playing full-out on D.

--Romeo being more aggressive and finding his outside shot.

--DeRon rounding into shape. He's recently demonstrated again how important he can be, and not just as a sub for Morgan.. The two looked pretty comfortable playing together v. Butler.

--Smith being a beast on defense and on the boards, taking the open jump shots, and driving only when there's a clear path to the basket......

--DG continuing to improve......I've been a critic, but he's been pretty good recently, especially in cutting down errors & shot selection. Recent games probably prove Al's not yet ready to be a consistent scoring option---when he starts out bad, it stays that way. DG's got to provide some scoring off the bench.

--The wildcard---can Hunter return? It certainly doesn't look like it right now, but he's not officially been ruled out.

To me, these seems like the most likely areas of improvement....there are some other things that could happen, like RP taking a few more shots, McRoberts finding his offense again, Race coming back, and Jake/Moore contributing, but those are not things that would make a huge difference in winning & losing.

Thoughts?

 

[Hatchets7times]

Upside. .In the tournament most games slow down. More half court games..This team has shown it can grind games out..And they don't seem to panic ever..Just a dad more offense..From whoever. .I don't ever see Hunter suiting up..Which is a big bummer. A Race sighting would be great..Any help on the front line would be a big plus..11-9 12-8 in conference.
One win the NCAA tournament. A sweet sixteen appearance if we get another dagger at the buzzer. Jmo.

 

[rikki-tikka-tava]

You forgot about Aljami? Seemed he was ready/going to break out before he posted back to back goose eggs scoring-wise. Haven't checked his stats but strikes me a good defender, loathe to dismiss him as a reliable scorer before the Season's done.

Anticipate the defense improving all year long, biggest question for my money is whether some real additional offensive production arises from anyone not named Juwan or Romeo. De'Ron is a definite and perhaps even likely candidate for 10-12 pts. a game, but Aljami, Justin, Rob, Devonte and Evan all have the potential to consistently deliver far more than what we're seeing. Would like to say the same about Zach but he seems more focused on not making mistakes than scoring, think occasional threes or put-backs are about all one can expect.

Hoping that the light holiday schedule and need to only play two games against lesser programs over a three week period results in a lot more cohesion and productivity by Conference play. Right now IU is right on the cusp of being top 20 on defense per KenPom, while the offense is just inside the top 40. B10 play isn't generally where Teams post gaudy scoring numbers, but cutting down the TOs in conjunction with some combination of De'Ron playing more, Justin finishing better around the rim, Aljami regaining form, getting Evan open for looks and and Devonte & Rob scoring the way guards need to for Teams that excel, would make a huge difference in IU's ability to compete at a high level and minimize the risk of so many 'come from behind' and/or skin of their teeth' wins.

Spring ceiling? No way to know, but did like the Team's energy after Butler, looked but didn't see anyone who wasn't totally into the celebration. That and the story this week on Clifton, Damezi and Jake pushing for minutes allows me to imagine that the chemistry and Team aspects that were disrupted by all the early injuries may be back in the ascendant and rapidly catching up to where it might have been otherwise. Recall this a very young Team, ranked #50 per Paterfamilias in terms of experience among Power 6 Conferences - it was all but certain that growing pains and freshman play were inevitable, but as Juwan said, "They're not freshmen anymore". Only thing I know is that we haven't yet seen anything close to the best from this Team or its Players, and that thrills aplenty await. Should be a wicked ride.

 

[IU? I'm Fine]

IU's RPI is #12 & poll rating is #22......of the two, I would consider #22 to be the more legit # right now....

My question for the board is not where we are right now, but what is your optimistic forecast of where we can be in the Spring?

Looking at the Butler game.....3 point win over what is arguably a top 30 team, imo......

And that was with Morgan having an amazing game---12/14, with 4/4 on 3s. Right off the bat, with just a good game from him we lose big, all other things being equal (I know, I know....). Lets say he was 8/14 with 2 3s...that would have been 18 points.

So....that's a lot of points to catch up & surpass, on the face of it, to try to crack the top 15 or so....

How to get there? Here's some thoughts....

--More urgency in the first half.....We seem to have a pretty laid back roster. There don't really seem to kick it into gear until Morgan gets them going. Is there someone else on the roster that can get these guys going early on? McRoberts, Phinisee? I do feel like it has to come from the players themselves....

--Related to above, better defense in the 1st half....the old saying is "defense travels". CAM seems to think that defense should be this team's identity....I hope they take that to heart and don't continue to wait to clamp down until we're 10 points down.....I understand teams are never going to play with equal intensity over 40 minutes...I think they can double the time they are playing full-out on D.

--Romeo being more aggressive and finding his outside shot.

--DeRon rounding into shape. He's recently demonstrated again how important he can be, and not just as a sub for Morgan.. The two looked pretty comfortable playing together v. Butler.

--Smith being a beast on defense and on the boards, taking the open jump shots, and driving only when there's a clear path to the basket......

--DG continuing to improve......I've been a critic, but he's been pretty good recently, especially in cutting down errors & shot selection. Recent games probably prove Al's not yet ready to be a consistent scoring option---when he starts out bad, it stays that way. DG's got to provide some scoring off the bench.

--The wildcard---can Hunter return? It certainly doesn't look like it right now, but he's not officially been ruled out.

To me, these seems like the most likely areas of improvement....there are some other things that could happen, like RP taking a few more shots, McRoberts finding his offense again, Race coming back, and Jake/Moore contributing, but those are not things that would make a huge difference in winning & losing.

Thoughts?

A couple of posters, including kkott, have been saying DD should play at the same time as JM and RP. Clearly, this would help kick-start the game, too.

 

[TR32]

The upside is getting more consistently from Davis, Smith, and Green, and giving Fitzner's minutes to Thompson, Moore, and or Anderson by the end of the season.

I would like DeRon to be in the post any time Morgan isn't, and I agree with Archie that getting Ro the ball where he can get into the lane (via screens and cuts) is an easy way to improve.

 

[chaboom]

We have to somehow find more efficiency on offense. Last season over 31 games we averaged 12.46 turnovers per game with an ATM (assist to turnover margin) of 1.13. This season through 11 games we're averaging 15.0 turnovers per game with an ATM of 0.99.

I think we will get more scoring out of McRoberts - he just needs a few more games after being out a month. Similar situation with DD, we need more out of him especially against the right match-ups.

Referring to a couple of posts above -- so a 3-out & 2-in set on offense with DeRon & Juwan inside, Rob at point, Romeo at a wing and then Justin or Devonte at the other wing. You could have Juwan flow from playing on a block, to a little high post or stretch outside to convert it to a 4-around-1 set. I think Yes, I'd like to see that.

 

[Eurocyldon]

I'd expect conference teams to throw size and numbers at Morgan and pack it in to slow down Romeo. Good teams will force others to beat them from outside. IU won't go away from those two guys but it's going to take a better effort of finding/taking good shots outside by the right players.

Specifically, RP has to be more aggressive getting into the lane and forcing the defense to move. Then guys have to be ready to shoot and knock down shots at a respectable percentage. ZM has to take some shots and make the defense respect that possibility. Otherwise they are playing 4 on 5. Romeo needs to cut down on the threes if he is not hitting them (think Calbert taking it to the FT line for easy jumpers). Fitz needs to get to his spots and knock them down when he has a chance. AD hopefully continues to shoot it well.

More than anything, and as everyone has noted repeatedly, just taking care of the ball and hitting FTs makes them a tough team to beat as long as they play D.

 

[TR32]

Good post Eurocyldon.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

We have to somehow find more efficiency on offense. Last season over 31 games we averaged 12.46 turnovers per game with an ATM (assist to turnover margin) of 1.13. This season through 11 games we're averaging 15.0 turnovers per game with an ATM of 0.99.

I think we will get more scoring out of McRoberts - he just needs a few more games after being out a month. Similar situation with DD, we need more out of him especially against the right match-ups.

Referring to a couple of posts above -- so a 3-out & 2-in set on offense with DeRon & Juwan inside, Rob at point, Romeo at a wing and then Justin or Devonte at the other wing. You could have Juwan flow from playing on a block, to a little high post or stretch outside to convert it to a 4-around-1 set. I think Yes, I'd like to see that.

Boy I love the idea of having Morgan play the high post and getting DD as close to the basket as he can get......I'd like to see Morgan having a good ratio of passing to shooting......that is, I don't want JM to neglect his excellent passing because he'shaving so much success shooting. Good way to do that is to post him just above the FT line. Only issue is DD clogs the middle a bit for Romeo, but you can't have everything.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

I'd expect conference teams to throw size and numbers at Morgan and pack it in to slow down Romeo. Good teams will force others to beat them from outside. IU won't go away from those two guys but it's going to take a better effort of finding/taking good shots outside by the right players.

Specifically, RP has to be more aggressive getting into the lane and forcing the defense to move. Then guys have to be ready to shoot and knock down shots at a respectable percentage. ZM has to take some shots and make the defense respect that possibility. Otherwise they are playing 4 on 5. Romeo needs to cut down on the threes if he is not hitting them (think Calbert taking it to the FT line for easy jumpers). Fitz needs to get to his spots and knock them down when he has a chance. AD hopefully continues to shoot it well.

More than anything, and as everyone has noted repeatedly, just taking care of the ball and hitting FTs makes them a tough team to beat as long as they play D.

I think your first paragraph is a good reason why we need to play inside-out and encourage DD's & JM's passes out of the low post.........

I know DD has been hurt, but I don't think he's passing as well out of the post as he was at the beginning of last year.

 

[TR32]

DeRon is a space eater and they both command a lot of space in the paint and probably shouldn't play together all that much. Morgan is absolutely exceptional with his back to the basket but it doesnt work if DeRon's man can help.

It is really Smith who needs to be more of a weapon offensively to enable Morgan to feed him or to get weakside put backs. I don't know why they dont send McRoberts to screen away for Smith to get free for an easy dish from Morgan. Romeo seems to make a good cut down the lane sometimes for the feed, but making Smith a first priority would be best because theoretically he should be able to dunk on anyone at point blank range.

 

[ufo33]

Get Romeo the ball at the top of the key and let him create with space and no sideline and baseline to trap him. So Romeo can drive, step back 3, drive and step back mid-range jumper, drive and finger-roll, drive all the way to the rack forca dunk, drive and dish forca wide open 3 from Phinesee, Morgan, Fitzner, Durham, Green, McRoberts, Anderson, drive and feed for layup or dunk by Morgan, DeRon, Smith, Fitzner, McRoberts, Moore, Forrester, Race.

 

[TR32]

Romeo isn't quick enough for clearouts, and he isn't a good enough shooter to just rely o pull ups. (In fact, that is one argument i would make as to why he isn't ready to face Oladipo or Anunoby next year).

I like that Archie is running screens for him instead.

 

[fpeaugh]

I’d say upside is a top 15-20 team. That could be first round exit or a deep run depending on the draw and some things going our way.

I do think this team could get hot and make a run. That always makes March more exciting. Especially considering the last decade of IU basketball.

 

[ndhuntington]

If we can get a constant third scorer I say top 10 team. I hoping Al or Rob step up because you know Morgan and Langford are going to put in 40 a night between them.