I wish I could say I was hopeful. But I'd be lying. I'd guess in the 7-10 range.
And I also have to say that it's depressing to see a post from an IU fan saying these two things:
1) A good coach should do well
2) I say 6th
6th isn't "well" -- it's middling. So either you have a different definition than I do of what "doing well" is, or you don't think Archie is a "good coach."
Either way, it's a sad commentary.
I've been watching a ton of old Arizona games and it's striking how similar the Miller brothers teams look from a style.
Sean Miller, as we know from the FBI stuff, has had a ton of five stars...but what's interesting is his offense, like Archie isn't really set up for one guy to dominate the ball.
He does wear you down defensively, tries to strike quickly in transition and tends to have a bunch of dudes scoring in double figures vs again, a dominant scorer.
It's our offense and it can get stagnant but...he's won a ton and was a constant top five team after a couple great showings at Xavier.
Before the FBI mess, Sean was the supposed favorite for UNC. That's pretty high praise.
I think a lot of people are upset simply because we had Romeo and didn't dominate. I don't think the Millers are best set to feature a star offensively.
Arizona had the #1 team in the country and the longest winning streak with the following lineup.
C - Tarczewski (seven foot goon, came in a five star and left undrafted).
PF - 6'9" Brandon Ashley (he couldn't shoot much out five to ten feet)
SF - 6'7" Stanley Johnson (came in as a top 3 recruit as a freshman. Averaged around 14 pts per game at 28 minutes. Surprisingly shot almost 40% from 3 as he is known in the NBA as a guy who can't shoot).
SG - 6'3" Gabe York (I believe he was an unranked guard out of HS)
PG - 6'1" TJ McConnell (I believe he was an unranked guard who transferred from Duquesne).
Their first guy off the bench was Hollis Jefferson. An athletic energy guy who subbed for Johnson or Ashley and was atrocious from 3 (around 20%).
Johnson was their leading scorer at a little less than 14 a game.
They had four guys in double figures (Johnson, Ashley, Hollis Jefferson and McConnell) and two guys just under 10 with York and Tarczewski.
If Hunter can play and is the real deal...I think we can compare structurally to that team.
Tarczewski to Davis/Brunk (beefy goon)
Ashley to TJD (shot blocking pogo stick who can't score from outside 10 feet)
Johnson/Jefferson to Hunter/Smith (6'7" rim runners)
York to Green (6'3" shooting guards)
McConnell to Rob (6'1" fast and steady points).
If you take ten points off that Arizona team's results (which is a massive handicap) you get around a 22-8 record going into the post season.
If things break well injury wise...I think that's doable.