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Trump Tariffs

I know it's fun for people to just chalk it up to Trump is dumb, but some other thoughts. I think it has more with wanting to onshore. China is kicking our ass and we’re f#cked if a war breaks out. Giving the world treasuries (paper) for goods is great until you realize you can’t win a war because it takes actual bullets to win. The Russian/ Ukraine war woke enough people up to this fact and it's become a matter of national security.

Also, if the economy stalls from tariffs and countries stops buying treasuries they have a great reason to lower rates and the FED can start yield control. This would cause a weaker dollar, which is what they need to reshore, run a hot economy, and elevated inflation (help with debt). They need to run the economy hot as shit if they are going to get the debt to GDP down. There’s going to be some pain and high inflation in my humble opinion, but a lot of growth. Someone has to pay for all the debt we ran up. I think this is the least shitty way to do it.
Can we agree on a few things here?

1)There were much less disruptive ways to accomplish any goal this administration has/had.

2) Trump owns this economy now. He inherited challenges, but so did his predecessor. Given #1, and the fact that the large rise in M1 happened on his watch with his FRC.


3) The under on Willie hosting the next meaningful Farm Aid just got juiced to +400.
 
Can we agree on a few things here?

1)There were much less disruptive ways to accomplish any goal this administration has/had.
I disagree. Raising taxes to increase revenues would have been much worse for Americans and there aren't many cuts politically feasible right now. Also, if the economy slows down from the tariffs he'll get his rate cuts, which will be further savings. I think there is 7 trillion in debt that needs to be rolled over this year.
2) Trump owns this economy now. He inherited challenges, but so did his predecessor. Given #1, and the fact that the large rise in M1 happened on his watch with his FRC.


3) The under on Willie hosting the next meaningful Farm Aid just got juiced to +400.
Eventually, it becomes his economy either way. If his objective was to reshore, cut government/regulations, and lower rates it needed to happen quickly. There is going to be pain, but growth could be humming around in 12-24 months if they get lucky. This is assuming he's serious about the tariffs.
 
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Until we don't.

There are already a bunch of countries that have agreed to trade in multiple currencies. If China and Russia wanted to break our leverage, all they would have to do is tell their trading partners to start trading in Euros. Drive a bigger wedge between the US and Europe while also breaking our economic leverage at the same time. And that choice would be likely to get all those European countries to say, "Ok!"
Russia and China (proxy) are fighting a war currently against NATO (Europe). There isn't a chance they're going to tell their trading partners to settle in Euros and strengthen their enemies currency and position.

Edit: Also, Crazy, China has reduced their holdings of U.S. debt for years now. They knew we were going to have to print our money and don't want to be holding it as it continues to devalue. The euro and Europe is much worse of than the dollar and us.
 
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A fact no one is considering that if Canada reacts to the tariffs by encouraging its citizens to stop traveling to the U.S. our highways will become incredibly more safe. The world’s worst drivers are those with Ontario license plates on their vehicles.

It is known.
Eh. The most dangerous place in the world for pedestrians and motorists is Athens, Georgia. Unless UGA has an away football game.
 
Russia and China (proxy) are fighting a war currently against NATO (Europe). There isn't a chance they're going to tell their trading partners to settle in Euros and strengthen their enemies currency and position.
Why not? Maybe not Russia, but why not China? The leader of the West with the reserve currency has slapped the EU with tariffs, is threatening to seize territory from one of them, and is indicating reducing the amount of military cooperation between them all. What does China lose by switching the #2 economy on the planet's reserve currency to the Euro? It is already a currency of one of their competitors. What do you think Trump's reaction would be if China, Brazil, India, and South Africa all switched to the Euro? And then if those countries convinced Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries to do the same?

Listen, I was and am all about tilting the teeter totter a little bit back this way but what happens if all these countries we are bullying decide it isn't worth it anymore and they are better served to go deal with a different bully? And oh yeah, this bully doesn't care one iota how they act in their own backyards, they just want commerce.

The problem with the last two weeks is that the people in charge aren't thinking too far down the road. I felt in the past that I was a pretty conservative guy. I have never voted for a Democrat to Federal office. Never. If things continue on this path I will be voting to oust Victoria Spartz. There are no Senators up in 2026 but I would be voting against them if I had the chance too. Not because I am a Democrat, dear lord they suck, but there is no other alternative to put the brakes on the absolute bull shit that has occurred the past two weeks.

The Republicans have turned into unthinking assholes lead by two internet trolls who are eating up the lap dog sycophants cheering them on through social media. I am out.
 
A fact no one is considering that if Canada reacts to the tariffs by encouraging its citizens to stop traveling to the U.S. our highways will become incredibly more safe. The world’s worst drivers are those with Ontario license plates on their vehicles.

It is known.
Never trust anyone who is THAT polite about everything, no matter how bad it is!
"EH, you cut off my arm, it's ok really. I have two so no harm no foul".
 
Eh. The most dangerous place in the world for pedestrians and motorists is Athens, Georgia. Unless UGA has an away football game.
We’re 45 minutes from Athens when we’re down here. We’ve been there several times. All you have to do is dive under the jacked-up pickup barreling towards you. There’s plenty of ground clearance.
 
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I disagree. Raising taxes to increase revenues would have been much worse for Americans and there aren't many cuts politically feasible right now. Also, if the economy slows down from the tariffs he'll get his rate cuts, which will be further savings. I think there is 7 trillion in debt that needs to be rolled over this year.

Eventually, it becomes his economy either way. If his objective was to reshore, cut government/regulations, and lower rates it needed to happen quickly. There is going to be pain, but things could be humming around in 12-24 months if they get lucky. That's assuming he's serious about the tariffs.
I left "goals" in #1 generic for a reason. There have been multiple goals discussed.

I understand the theories behind your post above. I'm not sure onshoring is feasible. What's the justification for broad onshoring, if we have an already type labor market? Especially, how does that square with bringing in H1B's to take jobs at a 50% cut in pay?

It's interesting that Murt's number one economic gripe was inflation, and now you're advocating for it.

I do understand that economic changes are not a zero-sum game, but there are always tradeoffs. The definition of a tax is one thing, but the ultimate cost of some policies lead to results similar to a tax.

I don’t see any way someone could look at our situation and think, what we need are corporate tax cuts and tax cuts for the wealthy. (And that has nothing to do with revenues, or debt.) Added to M1 and other factors, we're adding fuel to the fire. It’s not going to end well. The timing and relationship to how M1 is handled will be key.
 
Canada as the 51st would ensure no R ever won the oval again. It would be a big, beautiful, blue state. Some say the most beautiful blue state.
Trump would have still beaten Hillary and Harris. But yes, it would be a lot more difficult.

Some people, like Trump, are willing to put their love of the country over political interests.
 
The problem with the last two weeks is that the people in charge aren't thinking too far down the road. I felt in the past that I was a pretty conservative guy. I have never voted for a Democrat to Federal office. Never. If things continue on this path I will be voting to oust Victoria Spartz. There are no Senators up in 2026 but I would be voting against them if I had the chance too. Not because I am a Democrat, dear lord they suck, but there is no other alternative to put the brakes on the absolute bull shit that has occurred the past two weeks.

The Republicans have turned into unthinking assholes lead by two internet trolls who are eating up the lap dog sycophants cheering them on through social media. I am out.


Did you not see this as a pretty obvious outcome during the election season?
 
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