thoughts on the stock market?

[dbmhoosier]

Does anyone think we've hit a bottom or is there a ways to go? I've got a good amount I've been waiting to invest and this seems as good a time as any. No one ever seems to time the market, right? What's the general thought on an all in one fund, like a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund for someone who doesn't want to do a lot of work and has a long-term (20+ year) time horizon?

 

[C-$]

Does anyone think we've hit a bottom or is there a ways to go? I've got a good amount I've been waiting to invest and this seems as good a time as any. No one ever seems to time the market, right? What's the general thought on an all in one fund, like a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund for someone who doesn't want to do a lot of work and has a long-term (20+ year) time horizon?

Decline imminent.

Hold off and then buy everything.

 

[burnthemallralphie]

 

[T.M.P.]

Does anyone think we've hit a bottom or is there a ways to go? I've got a good amount I've been waiting to invest and this seems as good a time as any. No one ever seems to time the market, right? What's the general thought on an all in one fund, like a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund for someone who doesn't want to do a lot of work and has a long-term (20+ year) time horizon?

Thoughts? Sure.

That the world's financial security is based on a stupid game invented for a bunch of flower buying phags from the 1600's is beyond retarded. Only religion is as outdated and asinine.

There ya go.

 

[burnthemallralphie]

 

[HoosierPeach]

My thought is that I'm damn glad I have a long time until I retire.

 

[cryano]

Playing the stocks isnt all that much different than playing my weekly NFL Locks...its a gamble in a game that there is way more information that you could in no way have access to.

Lucky for you, unlike my nfl locks, the stock market has a good return. So my advice is go ahead and invest now and let it grow.
If your $8k was any more than that, you'd probably have already put it to earnings anyway. And if its less than $8k, who gives 2 shits, take it to casino and do red roulette, bumping your win possibility by $500 each time - not likely to hit 4 straight not-red right?

Why $8k - any more than that and you'd be able to afford seeking advice from people better than the free IU fan site and not mind thier fees.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Playing the stocks isnt all that much different than playing my weekly NFL Locks...its a gamble in a game that there is way more information that you could in no way have access to.

Lucky for you, unlike my nfl locks, the stock market has a good return. So my advice is go ahead and invest now and let it grow.
If your $8k was any more than that, you'd probably have already put it to earnings anyway. And if its less than $8k, who gives 2 shits, take it to casino and do red roulette, bumping your win possibility by $500 each time - not likely to hit 4 straight not-red right?

Why $8k - any more than that and you'd be able to afford seeking advice from people better than the free IU fan site and not mind thier fees.

This why you're a bad gambler. I hope you're joking about this.

Imagine:
Win on first spin = win $500
Lose on first, win on second = lose $500, win $1000 = win $500
Lose on first two, win on third = lose $1500, win $1500 = win $0
Lose on first three, win on fourth = lose $3000, win $2000 = lose $1000
Lose on all four = lose $5000

Your first option has a 47.4% chance of happening.
Second = 24.9% chance
Third = 13.1% chance
Fourth = 6.9% chance
Fifth = 7.7% chance

The problem is, you'll win $500 most goes, but eventually, hit that big loss. As a result, you're losing an average of about $18.50 per bet.

The only way to guarantee a win is to double your bet each time, not just add to it, but that only works if:
1. You have unlimited money.
2. There is no table maximum.

This, by the way, is exactly why tables have maximums.

 

[cryano]

I said bump your win possibilty by $500...

But really was just makibg the point that if its funny money that the advice of the OTF will determine...why not add this as an option?

However - the table maximum is interesting...I wonder how many times you could guarantee doubling the minimum before you reached the maximum on the average table

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I said bump your win possibilty by $500...

But really was just makibg the point that if its funny money that the advice of the OTF will determine...why not add this as an option?

However - the table maximum is interesting...I wonder how many times you could guarantee doubling the minimum before you reached the maximum on the average table

Most casinos only let you double three to five times before hitting a table max, depending on the game. And it's precisely because of people who had the same idea as you that they do it. After doubling about 5 times, your odds of winning (again, depending on the game) start creeping close to your favor, so that's why they won't allow it.

 

[C-$]

Thoughts? Sure.

That the world's financial security is based on a stupid game invented for a bunch of flower buying phags from the 1600's is beyond retarded. Only religion is as outdated and asinine.

There ya go.

I HAVE A LARGE BONER RIGHT NOW

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I HAVE A LARGE BONER RIGHT NOW

Drunk.

 

[toastedbread]

Most casinos only let you double three to five times before hitting a table max, depending on the game. And it's precisely because of people who had the same idea as you that they do it. After doubling about 5 times, your odds of winning (again, depending on the game) start creeping close to your favor, so that's why they won't allow it.

You can get table maxes raised. Doubling a 6th, 7th, 8th time has absolutely no effect on your odds of winning. The house will take that bet every time.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

You can get table maxes raised. Doubling a 6th, 7th, 8th time has absolutely no effect on your odds of winning. The house will take that bet every time.

Not true. The more times you are allowed to double, the more likely you can ensure winning a profit of the minimum bet.

 

[toastedbread]

Not true. The more times you are allowed to double, the more likely you can ensure winning a profit of the minimum bet.

The house has deeper pockets than you. There is no legitimate casino that will turn down your double bet. None.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

The house has deeper pockets than you. There is no legitimate casino that will turn down your double bet. None.

They might let you do it a few times, but they'll always cut you off eventually. The only way they can ensure that you won't win with a double-down strategy is to cut you off eventually. If you are allowed to double-down on a roulette wheel as much as you want, these are your chances of eventually winning your money back (with a minimum bet profit) with each successive spin:

47.3684%
72.2992%
85.4206%
92.3266%
95.9614%
97.8744%
98.8813%
99.4112%
99.6901%
99.8369%
99.9142%
99.9548%
99.9762%
99.9875%
99.9934%

Obviously, each individual spin is only 47.3684% in your favor, so before each spin, the house is at an advantage to accept your bet. But if the house knows you will continue doubling your bets forever, and that you have more than enough money to do it (of course, you probably don't), their only solution is to cut you off at some point, and that's why they usually set arbitrary table limits based on whatever level of comfort that particular casino has for people playing this strategy.

 

[C-$]

Drunk.

Shit yeah

 

[toastedbread]

They might let you do it a few times, but they'll always cut you off eventually. The only way they can ensure that you won't win with a double-down strategy is to cut you off eventually. If you are allowed to double-down on a roulette wheel as much as you want, these are your chances of eventually winning your money back (with a minimum bet profit) with each successive spin:

47.3684%
72.2992%
85.4206%
92.3266%
95.9614%
97.8744%
98.8813%
99.4112%
99.6901%
99.8369%
99.9142%
99.9548%
99.9762%
99.9875%
99.9934%

Obviously, each individual spin is only 47.3684% in your favor, so before each spin, the house is at an advantage to accept your bet. But if the house knows you will continue doubling your bets forever, and that you have more than enough money to do it (of course, you probably don't), their only solution is to cut you off at some point, and that's why they usually set arbitrary table limits based on whatever level of comfort that particular casino has for people playing this strategy.

So how much is the initial bet in the scenario we are talking about?

 

[twenty02]

Does anyone think we've hit a bottom or is there a ways to go? I've got a good amount I've been waiting to invest and this seems as good a time as any. No one ever seems to time the market, right? What's the general thought on an all in one fund, like a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund for someone who doesn't want to do a lot of work and has a long-term (20+ year) time horizon?

Yes and yes. Do it. I upped my contributions significantly this week, going forward. We hit the magic 10% correction level. The drop is 'mostly' due to the endless rout of oil prices....which has to end at some point.

 

[Tony20]

Does anyone think we've hit a bottom or is there a ways to go? I've got a good amount I've been waiting to invest and this seems as good a time as any. No one ever seems to time the market, right? What's the general thought on an all in one fund, like a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund for someone who doesn't want to do a lot of work and has a long-term (20+ year) time horizon?

I think now is as good as time as any. Rarely does the casual investor ever time it perfectly but to me 10%+ off most indexes is a good spot if you've been on sidelines for this block of cash.

 

[Ungar16]

Yes and yes. Do it. I upped my contributions significantly this week, going forward. We hit the magic 10% correction level. The drop is 'mostly' due to the endless rout of oil prices....which has to end at some point.

Was it you and Tony20 in December who said I was crazy for thinking the market was on the verge or a big dump? I guess a dumbarse gets lucky every now and then. The oil rout isn't over it will continue I see oil trading in the low 20's high teens for a few months. Iran is going to start pumping 500,000 barrels a day into an already oversupplied market. I still believe the market will drop below 15,000 I think a 20% correction is what we will see. The data coming out of China is going to continue to kill the market. Amazon was/is over priced Google was and is over priced Apple was over priced, and Facebook and Twitter was and is overpriced. Once those companies get back in to line with where they should be the market will start the turn around. Those were the main drivers of the market last year and with out them reaching record stock prices the market would have been down about 10% last year.

HOWEVER if you are keeping a tight pulse on the oil market you could make huge gains in the next 3-5 years. OPEC is going to have to cut supply.. the big players don't want to do that because they are afraid of losing market share, however the smaller players in OPEC want it and are begging for it. US and Canada oil is getting tighter and more efficient there will be some small players in the US and Canada market that go under and are bought up by the big boys. The debt on the small guys is going to be to much and banks are going to start asking to be paid. With oil trading where it they won't be able to make the payments (already starting to happen).. those wells will be shut off and supply will start to shrink. We are really setting ourselves up for a perfect storm. I am hedging my bets (yes I used bets) long term oil prices increasing and the big players EOG, Chevron, Exxon etc... ETF XLE is what I have been buying up.... we will see what happens hell it is just money...

 

[Tony20]

It very well might have been me....I don't recall. From a technical standpoint I'm officially at concerned level but most of my investments are long term so I rarely get worried. I use Feb 2009 as exhibit A. Dow was at 7500 and world was ending.

Interesting on oil. I'll start to study. I've always been hesitant on oil but your points seem valid. I've always been a bank guy. C going from $60 in July to $40 currently is completely unwarranted...same goes for BAC going from $18 to $13. Those are two I'm buying at these levels.

 

[twenty02]

Was it you and Tony20 in December who said I was crazy for thinking the market was on the verge or a big dump? I guess a dumbarse gets lucky every now and then. The oil rout isn't over it will continue I see oil trading in the low 20's high teens for a few months. Iran is going to start pumping 500,000 barrels a day into an already oversupplied market. I still believe the market will drop below 15,000 I think a 20% correction is what we will see. The data coming out of China is going to continue to kill the market. Amazon was/is over priced Google was and is over priced Apple was over priced, and Facebook and Twitter was and is overpriced. Once those companies get back in to line with where they should be the market will start the turn around. Those were the main drivers of the market last year and with out them reaching record stock prices the market would have been down about 10% last year.

HOWEVER if you are keeping a tight pulse on the oil market you could make huge gains in the next 3-5 years. OPEC is going to have to cut supply.. the big players don't want to do that because they are afraid of losing market share, however the smaller players in OPEC want it and are begging for it. US and Canada oil is getting tighter and more efficient there will be some small players in the US and Canada market that go under and are bought up by the big boys. The debt on the small guys is going to be to much and banks are going to start asking to be paid. With oil trading where it they won't be able to make the payments (already starting to happen).. those wells will be shut off and supply will start to shrink. We are really setting ourselves up for a perfect storm. I am hedging my bets (yes I used bets) long term oil prices increasing and the big players EOG, Chevron, Exxon etc... ETF XLE is what I have been buying up.... we will see what happens hell it is just money...

10% down last year without FANG? That's just wrong.

https://www.aqr.com/cliffs-perspective/snafu-situation-normal-all-fanged-up

 

[Ungar16]

It very well might have been me....I don't recall. From a technical standpoint I'm officially at concerned level but most of my investments are long term so I rarely get worried. I use Feb 2009 as exhibit A. Dow was at 7500 and world was ending.

Interesting on oil. I'll start to study. I've always been hesitant on oil but your points seem valid. I've always been a bank guy. C going from $60 in July to $40 currently is completely unwarranted...same goes for BAC going from $18 to $13. Those are two I'm buying at these levels.

I have been following the banks very closely as well I agree they seem like very good buys right now. I like Citi and BAC... we will see how this market moving plays out.

 

[Chester Fried]

Does anyone think we've hit a bottom or is there a ways to go? I've got a good amount I've been waiting to invest and this seems as good a time as any. No one ever seems to time the market, right? What's the general thought on an all in one fund, like a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund for someone who doesn't want to do a lot of work and has a long-term (20+ year) time horizon?

It's impossible to time the market. Just save 15-20% of your income and invest in a balanced portfolio of low-cost index funds (I like Vanguard personally) and you will be fine. If you are retiring 20+ years from now, the market movement of this month is just noise. This is really boring advice, but it will work in the long-run. If it doesn't, it means the market has really messed up and we will all have much larger problems on our hands.

 

[dusto nomo]

I have been following the banks very closely as well I agree they seem like very good buys right now. I like Citi and BAC... we will see how this market moving plays out.

BAC is a dog...JPM is the only bank stock worth buying. Trade the VIXX, market volatility will rule the day until oil stabilizes.

 

[MillerTime]

AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, CRM, CMG

 

[Ungar16]

BAC is a dog...JPM is the only bank stock worth buying. Trade the VIXX, market volatility will rule the day until oil stabilizes.

May have to look into that... I follow the market pretty closely and what the economy is doing. I follow the Fed religiously because it can affect my job. These low interest rates have killed our industry the last 8 years. We need some higher rates to drive premiums out of a soft market but I am guessing we won't see that for some time.

I started following oil closely the last couple years. Not sure why I guess it just interest me. I love to learn new things and following the market is a constant learning experience.