The Orange Bowl

[iueyedoc99]

Final Score: Wisconsin 34, Miami 24
(This was essentially a home game for U)

Number of players on the roster with a 4* or higher Rivals rating:
Wisconsin 8, Miami 46

Recruiting to your system is huge. Coaching is huge. There is hope for IU.

 

[td75]

This has to be one of the most interesting stats coming out of these bowl games. I pointed this out earlier in the year when I realized Wisconsin was running over teams with three star offensive lineman.

This is the Wisconsin, Iowa, and even Northwestern recipe for winning games and winning seasons. They are excellent developmental programs. There's no reason Indiana can't be a very strong, developmental football program.

 

[fpeaugh]

Final Score: Wisconsin 34, Miami 24

Number of players on the roster with a 4* or higher Rivals rating:
Wisconsin 8, Miami 46

Recruiting to your system is huge. Coaching is huge. There is hope for IU.

You’re pointing to the anomaly, not the norm. It’s important to understand this. The percentages show it’s very unlikely to win big with 3 star players, albeit not impossible.

 

[td75]

I don't know about that, Iowa, Louisville, Wisconsin and Northwestern just to name a few, win lots of games with rosters entirely dominated by 3 star kids.

There's others out there, situations where the roster is 90% 3 star material.

 

[4IUSox2]

Too lazy to do the research, but I'm guessing A&M vs Wake had a similar differential in 4* guys to compare.

 

[fpeaugh]

I don't know about that, Iowa, Louisville, Wisconsin and Northwestern just to name a few, win lots of games with rosters entirely dominated by 3 star kids.

There's others out there, situations where the roster is 90% 3 star material.

That’s why I said it’s improbable not impossible. Go look at just about every roster that missed a bowl this year. They’re all dominated by 3 star recruits. But really good coaching can overcome this in certain systems.

 

[TDHoosier]

Final Score: Wisconsin 34, Miami 24

Number of players on the roster with a 4* or higher Rivals rating:
Wisconsin 8, Miami 46

Recruiting to your system is huge. Coaching is huge. There is hope for IU.

This is not the norm, I love these type of scenarios but realize the very low chance this would work for many teams. I also tend to think Wisconsin kids are probably ranked a bit lower than Florida kids which is probably part of the the discrepancy in the numbers.

 

[82hoosier]

Go Army! Go Navy!

 

[i'vegotwinners]

Wisc has the entire state to itself, and no one but NW and Minn right off their border. (and not much Wisc population all that close to Minneapolis).

not a whole lot of divided loyalties, U Wisc is the state team.

kids growing up in Indiana are quite divided as to loyalties.

IU has PU and ND in state to compete with, NW, MSU, UM, OSU, UL, and UK, an easy drive for many in state kids, Ill not that far either, and importantly and rarely mentioned, only central Indiana kids get IU and PU as the 'home schools" of local tv and radio.

northern Indiana where population is high gets much of their media out of Chicago and South Bend, and much of southern Indiana gets their media out of Louisville and Cincinnati, so IU is maybe 3rd place at best in "home team" coverage, even "in state", by the media in much of Indiana.

head scratcher how U Wisc had the down times they did.

that said, while no doubt UW has good coaching, i'm guessing a lot of those recruits are under rated, and it isn't just a case of various UW coaches all being miracle workers. (till they leave UW anyway).

i don't follow UW recruiting, but i wonder how many Wisc kids UW goes hard after, they lose to other programs.

on a side note, while maybe IU neglected FB before most here were born, since the current stadium was built, i don't think "neglect" has been the issue some here seem to want to make it out to be.

more so the fragmented loyalties mentioned above due to geography, media, and the state having 3 big 5 schools.

as to "neglect", the big "neglect" IU has been guilty of isn't facilities or coaches, it's failing to put out even minimal effort to put butts in seats, rather than always caring more about revenue per ticket, and more importantly, hoping for a miracle as the primary strategy to improve attendance.

filling that stadium, or at least filling much of it, obviously hasn't been thought of as an "investment" in the program by it's caretakers.

the administrations have obviously always thought of filling seats as the head coaches' job, and the coaches' failure when that strategy didn't work. (definition of insanity kicks in).

disgraceful that IU has barely lifted a finger to drive attendance their entire history.

IU could do much better attendance wise, they flat out don't try, and haven't ever. (save your spin 89, that's the fact Jack).

atmosphere matters. just ask some of the kids who go to Iowa City.

 

[iueyedoc99]

Wisc has the entire state to itself, and no one but NW and Minn right off their border. (and not much Wisc population all that close to Minneapolis).

not a whole lot of divided loyalties, U Wisc is the state team.

kids growing up in Indiana are quite divided as to loyalties.

IU has PU and ND in state to compete with, NW, MSU, UM, OSU, UL, and UK, an easy drive for many in state kids, Ill not that far either, and importantly and rarely mentioned, only central Indiana kids get IU and PU as the 'home schools" of local tv and radio.

northern Indiana where population is high gets much of their media out of Chicago and South Bend, and much of southern Indiana gets their media out of Louisville and Cincinnati, so IU is maybe 3rd place at best in "home team" coverage, even "in state", by the media in much of Indiana.

head scratcher how U Wisc had the down times they did.

that said, while no doubt UW has good coaching, i'm guessing a lot of those recruits are under rated, and it isn't just a case of various UW coaches all being miracle workers. (till they leave UW anyway).

i don't follow UW recruiting, but i wonder how many Wisc kids UW goes hard after, they lose to other programs.

on a side note, while maybe IU neglected FB before most here were born, since the current stadium was built, i don't think "neglect" has been the issue some here seem to want to make it out to be.

more so the fragmented loyalties mentioned above due to geography, media, and the state having 3 big 5 schools.

as to "neglect", the big "neglect" IU has been guilty of isn't facilities or coaches, it's failing to put out even minimal effort to put butts in seats, rather than always caring more about revenue per ticket, and more importantly, hoping for a miracle as the primary strategy to improve attendance.

filling that stadium, or at least filling much of it, obviously hasn't been thought of as an "investment" in the program by it's caretakers.

the administrations have obviously always thought of filling seats as the head coaches' job, and the coaches' failure when that strategy didn't work. (definition of insanity kicks in).

disgraceful that IU has barely lifted a finger to drive attendance their entire history.

IU could do much better attendance wise, they flat out don't try, and haven't ever. (save your spin 89, that's the fact Jack).

atmosphere matters. just ask some of the kids who go to Iowa City.

I was told by a “friend of a friend” who knows Wilson well that KW knew the IU job would be a battle, but his one serious miscalculation in orchestrating a turnaround was how tough it turned out to be getting Indiana kids to commit to IU. Just too many other quality programs within easy driving distance, split fan bases all over the state, etc. Coming from OK, where he was mainly just competing with TX for recruits, this was a cold dose of reality for the man!

 

[Fosterharper]

I was told by a “friend of a friend” who knows Wilson well that KW knew the IU job would be a battle, but his one serious miscalculation in orchestrating a turnaround was how tough it turned out to be getting Indiana kids to commit to IU. Just too many other quality programs within easy driving distance, split fan bases all over the state, etc. Coming from OK, where he was mainly just competing with TX for recruits, this was a cold dose of reality for the man!

I think it went beyond that. There was and is an apathy surrounding IU football that both Hep and Wilson were surprised / upset by. There was a general frustration that the best recruiting atmosphere to bring kids on campus featured a home basketball game rather than a football one, where players and their parents would walk into a half filled stadium at the beginning, and it would empty out at halftime. If winning ever happens, I hope the fans will do their part like they have at places like Iowa and Wisconsin and even Purdue.

 

[Superstar84b]

I believe that Wisconsin is a clear example that there’s no causation between star rankings and having a better team. It just so happens that there’s a correlation, but not necessarily causation. Urban Meyer is a good example. He has highly rated classes, but is that why they win? Probably not. There’s exceptional scouting so they rarely get busts. There’s great player development, and he’s a great coach. That’s why he could win at Utah, with virtually all 2*’s, and develop multiple NFL players there, and then win at Florida, and then win at Ohio State. Remember, his most successful QB (Alex Smith) was a 2* prospect, and is STILL producing.

What Wisconsin and Iowa have is exceptional scouting and their coaches lack the typical emotion/biases that go into recruiting. A good example was George Kittle, a Tight End at Iowa who is now starting for the 49ers. He was a low rated prospect, and CKW flat out said that he wouldn’t have offered Kittle anything more than a walk on opportunity. Both Danny friend and Fuchs were rated higher. But were they more talented out of high school? Probably not. Based on many factors, Kittle was rated lower, yet was better. Reports out of Iowa said that athletically, the guy was similar to gronkowski, and he was a freak having played against him. It wasn’t all player developement, the guy Came in with amazing ability, and on film When preparing for them, I was convinced he was the best TE in the conference at that time. Why would Iowa take him when no one else did? Because Ferentz recruits with no emotion or bias. Most coaches do recruit with emotion and what I call the “how many stars do you have” bias. It just so happens that the best coaches/scouters/developers like Meyer are correlated with higher classes, but if he had to, he could find the under the radar 2/3* guys and win. On the NFL level, the Patriots are the most obvious example of lacking any bias when they select players, and winning with some guys who couldn’t play for any other team, that people haven’t even heard of. That’s similar to what northwestern, Iowa and Wisconsin are willing to do.

The good news is that I don’t think that CTA buys into the “how many stars do you have” bias. I think that he’ll take anyone who he thinks can play. This is a statement of faith since this is his first class, but I think that he did a great job of discarding rankings, and picking guys who fit the system. TJ ivy was “dropped” from West Virginia, and CTA still brought him in. That showed me a lot from CTA to ignore the noise and just for for guys who fit the system, and ignore ratings. I think that trend will continue at IU which is good for the future. Can make us very similar to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern in the future.

 

[Fosterharper]

I believe that Wisconsin is a clear example that there’s no causation between star rankings and having a better team. It just so happens that there’s a correlation, but not necessarily causation. Urban Meyer is a good example. He has highly rated classes, but is that why they win? Probably not. There’s exceptional scouting so they rarely get busts. There’s great player development, and he’s a great coach. That’s why he could win at Utah, with virtually all 2*’s, and develop multiple NFL players there, and then win at Florida, and then win at Ohio State. Remember, his most successful QB (Alex Smith) was a 2* prospect, and is STILL producing.

What Wisconsin and Iowa have is exceptional scouting and their coaches lack the typical emotion/biases that go into recruiting. A good example was George Kittle, a Tight End at Iowa who is now starting for the 49ers. He was a low rated prospect, and CKW flat out said that he wouldn’t have offered Kittle anything more than a walk on opportunity. Both Danny friend and Fuchs were rated higher. But were they more talented out of high school? Probably not. Based on many factors, Kittle was rated lower, yet was better. Reports out of Iowa said that athletically, the guy was similar to gronkowski, and he was a freak having played against him. It wasn’t all player developement, the guy Came in with amazing ability, and on film When preparing for them, I was convinced he was the best TE in the conference at that time. Why would Iowa take him when no one else did? Because Ferentz recruits with no emotion or bias. Most coaches do recruit with emotion and what I call the “how many stars do you have” bias. It just so happens that the best coaches/scouters/developers like Meyer are correlated with higher classes, but if he had to, he could find the under the radar 2/3* guys and win. On the NFL level, the Patriots are the most obvious example of lacking any bias when they select players, and winning with some guys who couldn’t play for any other team, that people haven’t even heard of. That’s similar to what northwestern, Iowa and Wisconsin are willing to do.

The good news is that I don’t think that CTA buys into the “how many stars do you have” bias. I think that he’ll take anyone who he thinks can play. This is a statement of faith since this is his first class, but I think that he did a great job of discarding rankings, and picking guys who fit the system. TJ ivy was “dropped” from West Virginia, and CTA still brought him in. That showed me a lot from CTA to ignore the noise and just for for guys who fit the system, and ignore ratings. I think that trend will continue at IU which is good for the future. Can make us very similar to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern in the future.

I'm aware of two all Big Ten level "receivers" who expressed interest in IU and couldn't get invited to visit by Wilson and staff. Both would've contributed early and, while one has an injuries throughout his career that have limited his productivity, the other will play in the NFL.

 

[Hoosier_Hack]

I believe that Wisconsin is a clear example that there’s no causation between star rankings and having a better team. It just so happens that there’s a correlation, but not necessarily causation. Urban Meyer is a good example. He has highly rated classes, but is that why they win? Probably not. There’s exceptional scouting so they rarely get busts. There’s great player development, and he’s a great coach. That’s why he could win at Utah, with virtually all 2*’s, and develop multiple NFL players there, and then win at Florida, and then win at Ohio State. Remember, his most successful QB (Alex Smith) was a 2* prospect, and is STILL producing.

What Wisconsin and Iowa have is exceptional scouting and their coaches lack the typical emotion/biases that go into recruiting. A good example was George Kittle, a Tight End at Iowa who is now starting for the 49ers. He was a low rated prospect, and CKW flat out said that he wouldn’t have offered Kittle anything more than a walk on opportunity. Both Danny friend and Fuchs were rated higher. But were they more talented out of high school? Probably not. Based on many factors, Kittle was rated lower, yet was better. Reports out of Iowa said that athletically, the guy was similar to gronkowski, and he was a freak having played against him. It wasn’t all player developement, the guy Came in with amazing ability, and on film When preparing for them, I was convinced he was the best TE in the conference at that time. Why would Iowa take him when no one else did? Because Ferentz recruits with no emotion or bias. Most coaches do recruit with emotion and what I call the “how many stars do you have” bias. It just so happens that the best coaches/scouters/developers like Meyer are correlated with higher classes, but if he had to, he could find the under the radar 2/3* guys and win. On the NFL level, the Patriots are the most obvious example of lacking any bias when they select players, and winning with some guys who couldn’t play for any other team, that people haven’t even heard of. That’s similar to what northwestern, Iowa and Wisconsin are willing to do.

The good news is that I don’t think that CTA buys into the “how many stars do you have” bias. I think that he’ll take anyone who he thinks can play. This is a statement of faith since this is his first class, but I think that he did a great job of discarding rankings, and picking guys who fit the system. TJ ivy was “dropped” from West Virginia, and CTA still brought him in. That showed me a lot from CTA to ignore the noise and just for for guys who fit the system, and ignore ratings. I think that trend will continue at IU which is good for the future. Can make us very similar to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern in the future.

I think most fans would agree that the stars don’t matter if the results are there to measure. To me, the scouting, and coaching you speak of is something that can be effected by the admin/University. What I mean by this is money for these “people” should not be an issue ever for the program. If CTA wants someone he should have him. Simple.

I think it would be great if the Admin/Glass came out and made it a point publicly that money is no object for the coaching staffs and will not be used as an excuse. If CTA wants him all he has to do is ask.

We wouldn’t need to do these things if our history isn’t what it is. However, because we have a history of choking up on the bat, we should recognize it, address it, and make it a non issue. I’d love to be able to say without any doubt, that the next coach that gets fired at IU just didn’t measure up and was given every opportunity to succeed.

 

[Spartan4ever]

[QUOTE="..Most coaches do recruit with emotion and what I call the “how many stars do you have” bias. It just so happens that the best coaches/scouters/developers like Meyer are correlated with higher classes, but if he had to, he could find the under the radar 2/3* guys and win. On the NFL level, the Patriots are the most obvious example of lacking any bias when they select players, and winning with some guys who couldn’t play for any other team, that people haven’t even heard of. That’s similar to what northwestern, Iowa and Wisconsin are willing to do...[/QUOTE]

I disagree with your comment that most coaches recruit on emotion or are concerned about how many stars a recruit has.

I was a walk on at MSU, worked with the punters and placekickers at WFU for three seasons, and now my nephew is an graduate assistant strength and conditioning coach at FAU under Kiffin, and I never experienced this attitude. Not saying it may not happen, but in my experience I have never seen it.

Mark Dantonio recently offered a player for the 2019 class that has been listed as a 3-star recruit. Several MSU fans have expressed their disappointment as to why Dantonio would offer a 3-star so early. Some have expressed that the reason for him being offered is because the plan A recruits at this position will likely not sign, so it is better that MSU get a jump on their plan B recruits. Then this recruit starts receiving offers from Alabama, OSU, and Georgia as well and all of a sudden these disgruntled fans realize that this recruits 3-star rating is because he has only played one year of football. He literally was an unknown because 2017 was his first year of playing high school football. Now the talk is that this same recruit will soon be re-evaluated and ranked a high 4-star or possibly a low 5-star.

Would you say that MSU's offer was based on emotion and his star ranking, or was it based on his performance and the staffs evaluation of his abilities? My personal bias sides with the coaches making the offer solely on performance and evaluation. Dantonio has repeatedly stated that early offers are only extended to plan A recruits regardless of their star ranking.

If you believe that Nick Saban, Urban Meyer or Dabo Swinney wait for Rivals, 247, or ESPN recruiting rankings to be published to identify who they should offer, you are relying too much on the subjective opinion of a recruiting service, and not the actual talent evaluation of a coach.

 

[Baller23Boogie]

I'm aware of two all Big Ten level "receivers" who expressed interest in IU and couldn't get invited to visit by Wilson and staff. Both would've contributed early and, while one has an injuries throughout his career that have limited his productivity, the other will play in the NFL.

Who were those receivers?

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

Final Score: Wisconsin 34, Miami 24

Number of players on the roster with a 4* or higher Rivals rating:
Wisconsin 8, Miami 46

Recruiting to your system is huge. Coaching is huge. There is hope for IU.

What’s “huge” is a Wisconsin line.

 

[Fosterharper]

Who were those receivers?

One played in the Orange Bowl

 

[iueyedoc99]

What’s “huge” is a Wisconsin line.

I know. Really wish we had put some effort into Tippman.

 

[Fosterharper]

I know. Really wish we had put some effort into Tippman.

Did IU not recruit him?

 

[Baller23Boogie]

I know. Really wish we had put some effort into Tippman.

We did try. He publicly said we were in his top 3.

 

[Fosterharper]

We did try. He publicly said we were in his top 3.

Tough to recruit against Wisconsin's offensive line legacy.

 

[Superstar84b]

[QUOTE="..Most coaches do recruit with emotion and what I call the “how many stars do you have” bias. It just so happens that the best coaches/scouters/developers like Meyer are correlated with higher classes, but if he had to, he could find the under the radar 2/3* guys and win. On the NFL level, the Patriots are the most obvious example of lacking any bias when they select players, and winning with some guys who couldn’t play for any other team, that people haven’t even heard of. That’s similar to what northwestern, Iowa and Wisconsin are willing to do...

I disagree with your comment that most coaches recruit on emotion or are concerned about how many stars a recruit has.

I was a walk on at MSU, worked with the punters and placekickers at WFU for three seasons, and now my nephew is an graduate assistant strength and conditioning coach at FAU under Kiffin, and I never experienced this attitude. Not saying it may not happen, but in my experience I have never seen it.

Mark Dantonio recently offered a player for the 2019 class that has been listed as a 3-star recruit. Several MSU fans have expressed their disappointment as to why Dantonio would offer a 3-star so early. Some have expressed that the reason for him being offered is because the plan A recruits at this position will likely not sign, so it is better that MSU get a jump on their plan B recruits. Then this recruit starts receiving offers from Alabama, OSU, and Georgia as well and all of a sudden these disgruntled fans realize that this recruits 3-star rating is because he has only played one year of football. He literally was an unknown because 2017 was his first year of playing high school football. Now the talk is that this same recruit will soon be re-evaluated and ranked a high 4-star or possibly a low 5-star.

Would you say that MSU's offer was based on emotion and his star ranking, or was it based on his performance and the staffs evaluation of his abilities? My personal bias sides with the coaches making the offer solely on performance and evaluation. Dantonio has repeatedly stated that early offers are only extended to plan A recruits regardless of their star ranking.

If you believe that Nick Saban, Urban Meyer or Dabo Swinney wait for Rivals, 247, or ESPN recruiting rankings to be published to identify who they should offer, you are relying too much on the subjective opinion of a recruiting service, and not the actual talent evaluation of a coach.[/QUOTE]
I don’t think that MSU is a good example because they basically built their program on underrated recruits. Whether it be Kirk Cousins, or Le’veon Bell who was a two star with no other major offers, I think that you can basically put MSU in the same category as Wisconsin and Iowa ect. I remember early in high school, around 07’/08’ MSU was in the stages of building that program up, and we’re doinf it with fairly under the radar guys. By 2011 they were in the Big Ten championship and steamrolled us.

I do agree with your point that not every coach recruits on emotion, and star ratings, but You see a ton of programs that do that. I got the impression that CKW did more and more as time went on. His 12’ class was ranked I think second to last in the conference, but may have had the most players actually contribute. His last classes were ranked higher, but a lot of those guys didn’t fit the system. I think that over time he felt more pressure/emotion to get the higher rated recruits. For example, Riley Neil, the starter at Ball State would’ve been a good grab. In the same class, Austin king was rated much higher. I get the impression that the king offer was also impacted by the reality that he had a better offer list. Neil was a kid in our backyard, a guy that maybe a school like Iowa offers. Those who say that IU has a lot of competition within the state for recruits are correct, but there are plenty of unheralded guys left over. Jason Spriggs is another example. You’ll always find a lot of kids like that in state, who are not from major programs, and I think that CTA will find them. The safety that he got in this class is a good example. The young man who was a Mr. Football finalist, but lacked the major offers. Those are the kind of kids I think CTA will remain unbiased against, and get in here when no one else wants um.

 

[iueyedoc99]

Did IU not recruit him?

Got in very late (pretty sure not a peep from IU until after Wiscy offered). The response from “sourced posters” was he doesn’t fit Hillers scheme and IU had no interest. Then Wiscy and ND got involved and IU apparently got interested as he did eventually get an IU offer. He was clearly not a priority.

Not going to argue the scheme point, or what kids they want or don’t, just wish it had worked out differently. Brohm took a FW kid and was in the media saying he is locking down the state, and the response from IU was pretty tepid IMO. Dwenger is a good program with two walk ons on the roster already, and not sure frankly we are in on anybody better, but that’s just the view from a fan who lives up here.