Probably not a coincidence that this showed up in my feed today. For any Dem voters inclined to swallow the cynical nonsense the MAGA types are trying to put out about whether or not a POTUS can withdraw from a re-election campaign and not resign from office, this should be instructional. I was only 12 yrs old (and a Nixon sympathizer) at the time, so I didn't pay much attention to this. moment in history. In retrospect I think LBJ's decision to withdraw was correct, but his lack to endorse any of the 3 competing candidates was a huge mistake.
Most of the people (esp cynical MAGA types) bemoaning the fact that Biden endorsed Harris as a "betrayal of Democracy" are either trolling or have no understanding of history. The reality is that since 1900 no current WH party (Dem or GOP) has ever successfully retained the Presidency when there was an open seat (so no incumbency) and the nominee emrged from a bitter primary process. Dems in particular have focused on nominating a candidate with "electability" and the results have been disastrous like Clinton in 2016, for example.
To be fair to BO, he couldn't throw his support behind Biden, because Biden declined to run. But if anyone doubts that Biden made the correct decision by withdrawing and also endorsing KH history (and Prof Lichtman) disgarees. When you have created a set of keys based on studying US elections since 1860 and devloping a model for what each winning candidate has in common losing the incumbency key is huge. You can't compound that by losing the contest key thru a divisive primary process because the opposition party only needs 6 keys total to be predicted to win.
At present the Dems have lost 3 keys (incumbency,incumbency charisma and mandate) by virtue of Biden not running and Dems hving (barely) lost the House in 2022. Lichtman only has 4 shaky keys unresolved. so the difference between Trump needing to secure 3 vs 2 is huge.
If you watch this video note how Roger Mudd broaches the possibility of the NVA being convinced to "hold off" till after the election in the hopes of getting a better deal. And that is exactly the deal Nixon and Kissinger worked out successfully. I read a source that said LBJ was aware of Nixon's actions, considered them treasonous, but was reluctant to expose them. I just found it interesting in watching this video for the first time the way Mudd semi-predicted that's exactly what could happen.
Most of the people (esp cynical MAGA types) bemoaning the fact that Biden endorsed Harris as a "betrayal of Democracy" are either trolling or have no understanding of history. The reality is that since 1900 no current WH party (Dem or GOP) has ever successfully retained the Presidency when there was an open seat (so no incumbency) and the nominee emrged from a bitter primary process. Dems in particular have focused on nominating a candidate with "electability" and the results have been disastrous like Clinton in 2016, for example.
To be fair to BO, he couldn't throw his support behind Biden, because Biden declined to run. But if anyone doubts that Biden made the correct decision by withdrawing and also endorsing KH history (and Prof Lichtman) disgarees. When you have created a set of keys based on studying US elections since 1860 and devloping a model for what each winning candidate has in common losing the incumbency key is huge. You can't compound that by losing the contest key thru a divisive primary process because the opposition party only needs 6 keys total to be predicted to win.
At present the Dems have lost 3 keys (incumbency,incumbency charisma and mandate) by virtue of Biden not running and Dems hving (barely) lost the House in 2022. Lichtman only has 4 shaky keys unresolved. so the difference between Trump needing to secure 3 vs 2 is huge.
If you watch this video note how Roger Mudd broaches the possibility of the NVA being convinced to "hold off" till after the election in the hopes of getting a better deal. And that is exactly the deal Nixon and Kissinger worked out successfully. I read a source that said LBJ was aware of Nixon's actions, considered them treasonous, but was reluctant to expose them. I just found it interesting in watching this video for the first time the way Mudd semi-predicted that's exactly what could happen.
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