1) IU beats Iowa today, good guys have their heads on straight and bad guys don't know how to handle it, will be thinking a little too much abstract about possibilities and may be prone to losing the tenacity and confidence it takes to fly on all cylinders. I'm thinking IU by 2 touchdowns late in the fourth and hold them off at the end. Not too optimistic about the next three games, but one will fall the right way for a totally undeserved 6-6 season if they take care of business today.
2) A lot has been said about IU's exhibition games, much I agree with. As hoped, there is some promise to expect Max, Morgan, and OG "you're my only hope" Ananoby to provide the frontcourt depth IU needs. OG looks to provide the bigger plays and I'm still curious to see how he handles power forwards defensively as he has built up a lot of strength the last six months, but Morgan and Max may be closer to being steady and heady players on both side of the ball. Morgan is a freshman so there will be plenty of exceptions this year, but he will make people make real nice plays to beat him, which will happen of course, but he'll make solid plays and help a lot. Max proved himself last year starting the last three games of the season and did fine, he's stronger this year and is a very smart player that will help these guys off the bench. Its a bench role though, Hartman is just too good imo to play Max over him when he's not tired. Hartman will struggle a little defensively against elite power forwards, but there won't be too many on the schedule like that and everybody struggles with guys like that including other elite power forwards. I'm thinking Troy and Hartman start together, both play the same 3 on offense and Hartman guards fours and Troy guards threes most of the time.
3) Looking more and more like RJ going to come off the bench. Hartman and RJ are both very good players and worthy of starting and both good candidates to be solid defenders, but there is a frontcourt bench and there is not a backcourt bench so lots of minutes have to go to 2 guard lineups so might as well start em unless you are ready to see Nick play 30 mpg. He's a good player to have, but 22-24 mpg is a nice ceiling for him in competitive games unless he takes a step defensively or is the hot hand late in the game then screw it. Even if they start RJ instead of Hartman, they will still have to use the big lineup half the time due to lack of guard depth and not wanting to expose Nick defensively to 30 mpg.
4) Yogi should benefit more than anyone in the country from the new rules freeing movement and rewarding the offensive player for drawing contact, he should have an exceptional year and everything for him depends on team play, he's the best individual player in the Big Ten but as a point guard we need some toughness from the crew to appreciate him for everything he does. Imo he's IU's best defender, but the defensive lapses and the selective effort from him down the stretch on the defensive end killed his well earned rep as a pretty good defender. IU needs to be able to to turn him loose defensively in the first half more and limit his minutes more than last year imo, let him disrupt the other team's offense getting across halfcourt and rest him more. He needs to toughen up just an iota and that will lead to pushing his teammates harder when chips are down and not letting himself lead the surrender like last March on defense. Yogi could easily be leaving IU as a top five all time scorer, by far and away leading assist man with nice a/to numbers, two all big ten team selections, two number one seed teams under his belt, and his continuing evolution as a leader will be the way past success stories were written, not as a guy that shows up as a star but a guy who is good and becomes great. Its all in his grasp. I don't think that's all in the cards, but its not only attainable but right there in front of him ready for him to seize if he's hungry enough. If he's tough enough (and Bryant stays healthy he isn't a wizard who can be an elite pg without a legit big man), he's a NPOY candidate and IU is a top five team.
5) IU's defense will make a huge jump this year, not quite as big as the fall from the year before, but huge. They have three solid defensive talents in RJ, Colin, and Yogi and those guys will have a rim protector in there this year which of course we all know is all important. Bryant is going to be good defensively and Morgan, Max, and OG's feel for the game will turn IU's biggest weakness last year into a slight strength this year (being physically and mentally outmatched in the frontcourt). But our statistical minded brethren have overreacted some to the fact that national title teams have elite defenses, IU's elite offense and so-so defense is a common format for final four teams but its a lot harder to win six games against the best of the best than four. I haven't seen anything from Troy or JBJ to indicate they have taken that step defensively that would turn this into a good defensive team. I'll continue to cross my fingers, but think its more likely we will see incremental improvement there from both and see them making some defensive plays but still being the guys the other team targets most of the time late in the shot clock.
6) I touched on the easy to grasp potential of this team, they really could be a final four favorite if they keep themselves sharp mentally at the end of the year. But the trend we've seen is players not being in flow in March and sometimes earlier with this coach. This club has to buck that trend. The coach lightened up their physical loads late in the year last couple of years, and maybe that helps here or there but I am not sure its physical. We saw RMK's teams wilt down the stretch most of the time his last decade at IU and they weren't pushed more physically than his earlier teams, I think its more mental and the mental pressure from a mad genius with all the internet era scrutiny made it really hard to be sharp at the end of the year. Sports like basketball and football especially rely not just on talent and good coaching, but also awareness and confidence and flow like a golf shot. You have to feel comfortable and be having just a little bit of fun. This coach's relentless style is unlike any I've witnessed on a consistent basis (most coaches are crazy sometimes, but not always) and the over the top attempts to limit off court problems will contribute to more mental fatigue late in the year than most. This leads to my season prediction...
7) 24-7 regular season, within 2 games of first in the BIG weather that's 2nd or a tie for 5th, 2-2 in the posteason. This is almost the same regular season record I predicted for the 12/13 team and far better than any other prediction I've made for an IU team since I've been around here. I think it comes in the form of excellent pre-March play and losing a couple of late season games and sputtering from there.
2) A lot has been said about IU's exhibition games, much I agree with. As hoped, there is some promise to expect Max, Morgan, and OG "you're my only hope" Ananoby to provide the frontcourt depth IU needs. OG looks to provide the bigger plays and I'm still curious to see how he handles power forwards defensively as he has built up a lot of strength the last six months, but Morgan and Max may be closer to being steady and heady players on both side of the ball. Morgan is a freshman so there will be plenty of exceptions this year, but he will make people make real nice plays to beat him, which will happen of course, but he'll make solid plays and help a lot. Max proved himself last year starting the last three games of the season and did fine, he's stronger this year and is a very smart player that will help these guys off the bench. Its a bench role though, Hartman is just too good imo to play Max over him when he's not tired. Hartman will struggle a little defensively against elite power forwards, but there won't be too many on the schedule like that and everybody struggles with guys like that including other elite power forwards. I'm thinking Troy and Hartman start together, both play the same 3 on offense and Hartman guards fours and Troy guards threes most of the time.
3) Looking more and more like RJ going to come off the bench. Hartman and RJ are both very good players and worthy of starting and both good candidates to be solid defenders, but there is a frontcourt bench and there is not a backcourt bench so lots of minutes have to go to 2 guard lineups so might as well start em unless you are ready to see Nick play 30 mpg. He's a good player to have, but 22-24 mpg is a nice ceiling for him in competitive games unless he takes a step defensively or is the hot hand late in the game then screw it. Even if they start RJ instead of Hartman, they will still have to use the big lineup half the time due to lack of guard depth and not wanting to expose Nick defensively to 30 mpg.
4) Yogi should benefit more than anyone in the country from the new rules freeing movement and rewarding the offensive player for drawing contact, he should have an exceptional year and everything for him depends on team play, he's the best individual player in the Big Ten but as a point guard we need some toughness from the crew to appreciate him for everything he does. Imo he's IU's best defender, but the defensive lapses and the selective effort from him down the stretch on the defensive end killed his well earned rep as a pretty good defender. IU needs to be able to to turn him loose defensively in the first half more and limit his minutes more than last year imo, let him disrupt the other team's offense getting across halfcourt and rest him more. He needs to toughen up just an iota and that will lead to pushing his teammates harder when chips are down and not letting himself lead the surrender like last March on defense. Yogi could easily be leaving IU as a top five all time scorer, by far and away leading assist man with nice a/to numbers, two all big ten team selections, two number one seed teams under his belt, and his continuing evolution as a leader will be the way past success stories were written, not as a guy that shows up as a star but a guy who is good and becomes great. Its all in his grasp. I don't think that's all in the cards, but its not only attainable but right there in front of him ready for him to seize if he's hungry enough. If he's tough enough (and Bryant stays healthy he isn't a wizard who can be an elite pg without a legit big man), he's a NPOY candidate and IU is a top five team.
5) IU's defense will make a huge jump this year, not quite as big as the fall from the year before, but huge. They have three solid defensive talents in RJ, Colin, and Yogi and those guys will have a rim protector in there this year which of course we all know is all important. Bryant is going to be good defensively and Morgan, Max, and OG's feel for the game will turn IU's biggest weakness last year into a slight strength this year (being physically and mentally outmatched in the frontcourt). But our statistical minded brethren have overreacted some to the fact that national title teams have elite defenses, IU's elite offense and so-so defense is a common format for final four teams but its a lot harder to win six games against the best of the best than four. I haven't seen anything from Troy or JBJ to indicate they have taken that step defensively that would turn this into a good defensive team. I'll continue to cross my fingers, but think its more likely we will see incremental improvement there from both and see them making some defensive plays but still being the guys the other team targets most of the time late in the shot clock.
6) I touched on the easy to grasp potential of this team, they really could be a final four favorite if they keep themselves sharp mentally at the end of the year. But the trend we've seen is players not being in flow in March and sometimes earlier with this coach. This club has to buck that trend. The coach lightened up their physical loads late in the year last couple of years, and maybe that helps here or there but I am not sure its physical. We saw RMK's teams wilt down the stretch most of the time his last decade at IU and they weren't pushed more physically than his earlier teams, I think its more mental and the mental pressure from a mad genius with all the internet era scrutiny made it really hard to be sharp at the end of the year. Sports like basketball and football especially rely not just on talent and good coaching, but also awareness and confidence and flow like a golf shot. You have to feel comfortable and be having just a little bit of fun. This coach's relentless style is unlike any I've witnessed on a consistent basis (most coaches are crazy sometimes, but not always) and the over the top attempts to limit off court problems will contribute to more mental fatigue late in the year than most. This leads to my season prediction...
7) 24-7 regular season, within 2 games of first in the BIG weather that's 2nd or a tie for 5th, 2-2 in the posteason. This is almost the same regular season record I predicted for the 12/13 team and far better than any other prediction I've made for an IU team since I've been around here. I think it comes in the form of excellent pre-March play and losing a couple of late season games and sputtering from there.
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