ADVERTISEMENT

So what is realistic floor & ceiling in terms of NCAA seeding?

R

Raul Duke

Junior
Nov 26, 2001
1,326
18
38
My guess is a 5 seed is probably highest seed if we finish with 11 or 12 wins in BIG which seems within realm of possibility based on remaining schedule (5-2 or 4-3 finish in our remaining 7 games).

If the plane crashes into the mountain and we go 3-4 or 2-5 with one BIG tournament win, then probably 9/10 seed?

I'm going to guess we finish 4-3, win one game in tournament for 22-11 (11-7) regular season record and we get a 7 seed. A 6 seed if we win 2 games in B1G tournament.
 
Depends what you mean on "realistic."

I agree a 5 is possible, but not if we finish with 11 or 12 wins. We'd need to pretty much run the table to get to a 5. There is an upper limit to how good our resume can look, thanks to scheduling.

If things fall apart, we could still miss the tournament.

I suspect we will end up with something in the 8-10 range.

goat
 
I think 7, 8 or 9 is the most realistic regardless of what happens.

Getting to Saturday in Chicago could net us a 6, but that's dreaming big.
 
Re: Our RPI was 32 entering today

that's an 8 in my book.
could def get to 5.

I'm seeing at least 5 more wins in conf. which is 22-9, 12-6. Win 1 or 2 in conference tourney, and
I'd assume we'd get somewhere from 4-6 seed.
 
We are likely a 6 or 7 seed as of right now

Here is Bracketology from CBS & ESPN before today's games, we are 6 in one, 7 in the other.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/220

I would think a 5-2 finish with at least one B1G tournament win would be enough to get to a 5 as we would possibly have a few more top 50 RPI wins. We have as many or more quality wins (top 25/50 RPI) as any team outside of the top 15 in rankings.
 
I think that's fair "right now."

We have an impressive "right now" resume. The problem is we have a weaker second half schedule. Absent a huge B1G tourney run, I don't think 4 or 5 more wins will be enough to stay a 6.

This is a bad luck year for seeding. We had a wimpy non-con schedule, and the B1G has underperformed as a whole. One of those two things we could do something about, but not the other.

If you really want a pie-in-the-sky projection, I think if we run the table and win the B1G tourney, we could conceivably lay claim to a 4, maybe even a 3 if the right teams drop off at the end of the season. But we'd have to win out and get some help.

If we truly want to fight for a good seed, we MUST beat Maryland. They are our last best chance for a really good victory.

goat
 
Re: if we run table AND win B1G tourney we'd be a 2-3 seed

not gonna happen, but just saying ...
 
That's probably asking too much.

There are going to be at least 8 teams with better resumes than us, even if we run the table. Probably at least 12, which is why I said we'd need some help.

goat
 
Re: if we run table AND win B1G tourney we'd be a 2-3 seed

Winning the btt would be as big of a surprise as winnnig the national title. I think our track record in the btt is one or the worst if not the worst of any big ten teams in its history. I cant stand it because I know IU is usually one or two and done.
 
What?

wins over Iowa, MSU, and Purdue will all be considered good wins as those are all potential tournament teams as of today.
 
Okay, you can add Iowa.

They have an RPI of 24 right now. But Maryland at 14 is our only top-20 team left.

MSU is 38, Purdue is 71.

Still, beating Maryland will do more for our resume than any other win could, unless we meet up with and beat Wiscy in the BTT.
 
All top 50 wins are good for the resume

MSU will be considered a good win.

I still think Purdue will make the tournament, so that also will end up being considered a good win.

Of course, we still have actually win the games.
 
The way MD is playing right now, it's a DIYD, DIYD game.

A win and everybody points to how MD has struggled vs. NW and PSU in addition to getting blown out on the road by us, OSU and IOWA. A loss and everybody points to us as being unable to beat a team that struggled vs. NW and PSU and who would be 3-7 away from AH.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
 
That's all true.

But please note, I said "really good win." Should have put really in bold type or something. What I meant was, Maryland is our last guaranteed opponent who would really be a Big Extra Shiny Star on the resume should we beat them.

According to my math, it's also the only game we have left where we'll be underdogs.

goat
 
Luckily, only fans and pundits engage in those mental gymnastics.

The committee is looking for whom you beat. At this point, Maryland is our top win in RPI, and beating them twice would look very good.

goat
 
I know what you said. But all you have to do is look at Iowa

last year. At one point, they were 19-6. They proceeded to lose 6 of their last 7 (including a game in Bloomington) and dropped all the way from an NCAA lock to being in a play-in game (which they also lost). They became the team you wanted to see in your bracket.

Maryland appears to be heading down that same path--peaking way too early and struggling mightily now. (Truth be told, we're kind of in that boat as well.)

At this point, home wins (if we can get them) over PUR, IOWA and MSU would be more impressive than winning at MD (especially PUR and MSU, given how they cleaned our clocks).
 
Eh.

You might be right in your predictions. I take issue only with your "At this point." At this point, Maryland is our best remaining opponent. That could change.

Since they are also our best win to date, we probably don't want that to change.

goat
 
Since BUT and SMU are also really good wins, MD sliding

behind them wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. It's not like BUT or SMU is way behind MD in the RPI (MD is 14 entering today, BUT 18, SMU 22). Maryland will probably fall a notch or two after the bitchslapping by Iowa.
 
Every win is worth the same in the RPI.

It doesn't take into account bitchslapping.

It does worry me a little that it's very possible our best wins will all be non-con games. I know the committee doesn't judge "conferences," per se, so it's not really a seeding thing. But I wonder if the entire conference is overrated* and we're going to see another B1G flameout in the tourney.

goat

* Or "more overrated than we think" depending on your current opinion.
 
I got that--the "bitchslapping" comment was merely a comment

and not an inference that it would be the reason MD falls. Even a loss by 1 point would have the same effect, but wanted to call the performance what it was--a bitchslapping. :)

The committee's charge has always been to judge the whole body of work. I actually don't mind that two of our better wins are OOC--since we're not likely to play someone in our conference in the NCAAs, and it removes a little of the stench of the OOC ranking.

The OOC is for all intents and purposes what kept us out of the 2005 tourney (Mike Davis' "But we were the fourth seed" team). That year, our best wins were in conference, and we had 10 of them. But we struggled mightily OOC (including two teams that we should've beaten and really were the reason we were relegated to the NIT--ND and MIZZ). You always want resume builders throughout your schedule, whether in conference or OOC. Playing a great schedule doesn't help you if you don't beat anybody in it. (By the same token, playing nothing but creampuffs as we did last year doesn't help either--of course, we lost to one of those creampuffs in ND [and that was a team that had lost to INST and several others with Grant, then beat us].)


This post was edited on 2/8 3:43 PM by SRIV94
 
Good point.

Our wins definitely help to mitigate the stench (good term, btw) of our schedule. Not as much as a victory over UL would have done, but, wish in one hand, and all that.

On a related point, though, doesn't it seem like the NCAA has been paying more attention to the "Last 10 games" in recent years? Increases the importance of finishing strong and doing well in the conference tourney, if so.

goat
 
I think the committee actually no longer considers last 10-12

games (that change took place five years ago). Not to say the games won't be considered as a part of the overall body of work, but they're not going to just look at last 10-12 as an official criteria. Teams will want to finish strong anyway regardless.
 
Running the table, which IU will not, puts us at a 4 seed.

IU would have 24 wins, not counting if they do anything in the Big Ten tourney
 
Running the table and winning Big Ten tourney gets us a 3

for sure. That would be a 27 and 7 record in a tough conference.
 
There's no for sure about that.

To get that good of a seed would require other teams in other conferences doing what we want.

But it would certainly be realistic.

goat
 
FWIW, I have us as a 7 right now playing COST in Pittsburgh.

Winner likely gets Villanova. Wouldn't face UK until the title game (but we'd likely have to get through IAST, DUKE and UVA after VILL).

Other B1G first rounders:

ILL/MISS (play-in game in Dayton--winner gets 5-seed UNI in Seattle)
MD/TEM (6/11 in Jacksonville)
OKST/IOWA (8/9 in Louisville--you know who the winner gets)
WIS/NCCU (2/15 in Columbus)
OSU/CIN (8/9 in Seattle)
SMU/MSU (7/10 in Omaha)

Purdue is in my next four out.
 
I'd be happy to see IU play UK this year

I don't see IU advancing too far in the NCAA Tournament, but I'd love a chance to take down Goliath.

Plus, I've missed the IU/UK series.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

IUNorth

My own mock CFP projections

Replies
30
Views
1K
IU Football Board
bum4iu2
B
A

24-25 IU Basketball Season Prediction Thread

Replies
24
Views
1K
TheHoosier.com IU Hoop Forum
Falky22
F
K

Anthony Leal is great, but if I was in charge of IU athletics

Replies
9
Views
1K
TheHoosier.com IU Hoop Forum
abraxis
A
IUNorth

Latest Bracketology, released yesterday

Replies
29
Views
3K
TheHoosier.com IU Hoop Forum
IUNorth
IUNorth
IUclover

CFP - Planning a Trip

Replies
4
Views
400
IU Football Board
Hoosiers Rising
Hoosiers Rising
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back