Politico: The secret backstory of how Obama let Hezbollah off the hook

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

A serious 2 state solution could potentially resolve a lot of conflicts in the ME. Many cause du jours would be eliminated overnight.

But it's not in the political interest of any of the political leaders !!

I don't think that's true. I think the Saudis, Egyptians and Israelis all want a two-state solution. But none of them can agree on important details. For the Arab states, Palestinian territorial integrity is critical (and rightfully so, if you're going to call it "two-state"), but integrity is impossible without getting rid of the settlements Israel refuses to abandon. Then, of course, is the Jerusalem question.

Anyway, I think the major players agree on the principle. They just don't agree on anything necessary to bring that principle to life.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I kinda doubt the publics in those states would riot in the event of act against Lebanon. I'm missing all the outrage for what's happening in Yemen right now. The only meaningful actor in an action against Iran is Egypt, and they are trying to tamp down the risk of conflict. Sisi has enough internal problems.

It's not about the public. It never is with most of those states. It's about keeping Iran isolated. Nothing is more important to SA. That's why they pushed so hard against Qatar.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

No it was not.

Bush tried the stupid approach we have tried since basically Vietnam to spread democracy to the world. That shit does not work. The choice is to utterly destroy the opponent until they are beaten into submission (see Germany and Japan after WW2) or to not bother toppling the government at all. Anything short of decimating the country always ends in failure when you are trying to force your will on them.

Bush made 2 mistakes, one was toppling Saddam to begin with and the second was letting pissants like Al Sadr hide out in religious buildings all while causing huge issues without dropping a couple of 500 pounders on his head. Modern society has this notion that you can get away with just dipping your toe into war. It is a stupid notion. Either you are in it to win it or you do not get involved in the first place. Half measures in the Middle East have been our problem since the First Gulf War.

With respect, you don’t understand COIN. COIN is not as simple as decimating a country. In japan and Germany, the bad guys were recognizable and the battles took place in fields and in empty towns. This is not the modern case.

Decimating Hezbollah is virtually impossible without a major armed conflict. They have the support of the people and can easily hide amongst them. Goat is right, you have to bargain with reality, and reality is that Hezbollah is a fringe player that would require trillions of dollars and thousands of American boots on the ground to eradicate.

 

[toastedbread]

I don't think that's true. I think the Saudis, Egyptians and Israelis all want a two-state solution. But none of them can agree on important details. For the Arab states, Palestinian territorial integrity is critical (and rightfully so, if you're going to call it "two-state"), but integrity is impossible without getting rid of the settlements Israel refuses to abandon. Then, of course, is the Jerusalem question.

Anyway, I think the major players agree on the principle. They just don't agree on anything necessary to bring that principle to life.

No, you missed my point. Any resolution is the worst case scenario for all political leaders. Netanyahu, Khaled Mashal, Nasrallah, and Khamenei. Perhaps Abbas is the lone exception.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

A serious 2 state solution could potentially resolve a lot of conflicts in the ME. Many cause du jours would be eliminated overnight.

How would that look? A two-state solution doesn't seem realistic from a geographic and security standpoint, which is why it has never moved forward over the past couple of decades.

 

[toastedbread]

It's not about the public. It never is with most of those states. It's about keeping Iran isolated. Nothing is more important to SA. That's why they pushed so hard against Qatar.

Yea, what are any of those countries doing to isolate Iran? Those countries had no trade ties with Iran to begin with. FYI, UAE is one of Iran's largest trading partners and they are used as a banking gateway for Iranian companies. Qatar can't possibly end ties with Iran because they share a MAJOR gas field. Also, I think the case of Qatar is more than just Iran.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Yea, what are any of those countries doing to isolate Iran? Those countries had no trade ties with Iran to begin with. FYI, UAE is one of Iran's largest trading partners and they are used as a banking gateway for Iranian companies. Qatar can't possibly end ties with Iran because they share a MAJOR gas field. Also, I think the case of Qatar is more than just Iran.

I think this time it's you missing my point. It's not about what those countries can do. They obviously can't do much. It's about the fact that there are two regional powers - SA and Iran - and for now, Iran is the isolated one. That's what Yemen is all about. SA doesn't want Iran on both sides of it. Even if these other countries are pissants, SA wants them on their side, not Iran's.

After all, we didn't need Guatemala, Nicaragua, or Vietnam to win the Cold War, but we'd rather have them on our side, than on the USSR's.

 

[toastedbread]

How would that look? A two-state solution doesn't seem realistic from a geographic and security standpoint, which is why it has never moved forward over the past couple of decades.

That's way beyond my pay grade. I suppose some resolution would be reached first between Gaza and the WB unless the WB eventually decides to push for their own state? complicated.

 

[toastedbread]

I think this time it's you missing my point. It's not about what those countries can do. They obviously can't do much. It's about the fact that there are two regional powers - SA and Iran - and for now, Iran is the isolated one. That's what Yemen is all about. SA doesn't want Iran on both sides of it. Even if these other countries are pissants, SA wants them on their side, not Iran's.

After all, we didn't need Guatemala, Nicaragua, or Vietnam to win the Cold War, but we'd rather have them on our side, than on the USSR's.

The irony is that it was only Saudi's involvement which brought Iran further into Yemen.

Iran suffered under years of punishing sanctions by the major world powers. My opinion is that the position of those microstates is mostly irrelevant. Sure, it's nice to have them on your side, but it doesn't amount to much. Throwing Qatar into the arms of Iran and Turkey is the much bigger deal and arguably a strategic blunder.