Pat Coogan

[Middawg]

Looking at our opponents that have bye weeks before playing us you have.


Oregon
Maryland
Purdue

IU also with a bye before Purdue, to nullify theirs.



To me, that's much more favorable schedule compared to last season when it seemed like every week we were playing a team coming off their open week.


QB play will decide if we are 10-2 or better or 8-4 or worse.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

This year's roster looks loaded. Indiana is bringing back 3 AA on defense alone!! Offensively, they've added key additions in Mendoza, Coogan, several splashy WRs, the big Tennessee TE and Beebe at RB.

Indiana will show the Big Ten in their opener by thumping Illinois. Mendoza will have a monster season; I would put the floor at 8 wins. That said, I predict 10 wins and possibly a CFP spot.

This roster does appear better than last year's.

Love your positive attitude.

I look at that schedule and keep seeing 8 wins.

So much depends on the Ill game IMO.

 

[CG Paul]

Hence starting the sentence with the phrase 'I think'. From there, I THINK there's some logical conclusions you can make about the rest of the statement in that it is MY OPINION that the Illinois game is a toss up.

Sure, if you say so. It’s just a more aggressive/abrasive way to phrase it.

Just like you did to me with your response.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

IU also with a bye before Purdue, to nullify theirs.

Then lets just move it up a week, weather might be better and away from Turkey day.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

With next season's schedule, I think 9 wins is the floor. I expect Vegas to once again undervalue us and put us at like 7.5 wins for the O/U for next season. I pray they put us at 6.5, but I doubt they go that low. Here are my predictions:

NON CONFERENCE

Aug. 30 – Old Dominion WIN
Sept. 6 – Kennesaw State WIN
Sept. 13 – Indiana State WIN

CONFERENCE

Sept. 20 – vs. Illinois WIN
Sept. 27 – at Iowa TOSS UP
Oct. 11 – at Oregon LOSS
Oct. 18 – vs. Michigan State WIN
Oct. 25 – vs. UCLA WIN
Nov. 1 – at Maryland WIN
Nov. 8 – at Penn State LOSS
Nov. 15 – vs. Wisconsin WIN
Nov. 29 – at Purdue WIN

Since we have mostly filled out our roster at this point, I feel pretty confident about my picks. I think we have upgraded in the the portal and overachieved in retaining our top talent. Kamara went through Senior Day and was definitely going to get drafted if he went pro. Getting him to come back for one more season was bigger than any defensive upgrade we could have possibly gotten in the portal. Mendoza is an upgrade over Rourke, which is crazy to say since Rourke was outstanding. Coogan is the biggest prize on the Oline and he's a major upgrade at whatever position he plays. The rest of our holes have been filled with what seem to be very productive players who should at least maintain the level of play we saw on the field last season.

If we beat Iowa in Iowa City and go 10-2, I think we make the CFP again. Unless we get shellacked at both PSU and Oregon, 10-2 will probably be good enough to get into the CFP. Honestly, 10-2 should be good enough for B10 and SEC teams to make the playoffs each year with those 2 conferences clearly being the top dogs and producing the best teams. 9-3 is where the bubble talk will start imo. I think we can start getting used to at least being in the CFP discussion on a yearly basis as long as Cig is in charge.

I'm not sure exactly what you mean when you say "9 wins is the floor". If you mean 9 wins is the minimum that will make you feel good as a fan, that's one thing. But I don't think it's realistic as a possible minimum # of likely wins......

I like to take emotions out and look at it statistically....

I'll start with one big caveat......that we don't have a big run of injuries or lose Mendoza, Kamara, Ponds, or Fisher for any extended time .......if we do all bets are off....

If not, I estimate the probability of winning any particular game as follows, being realistically optimistic:

--OD.........95
--KS..........95
--ISU.........1.00
--ILL...........60
--at Iowa...55
--at ORE...25
--MSU........85
--UCLA......85
--at MD......65
--at PSU....25
--WIS..........70
--at PUR....90

Total Expected Wins...8.5

As an example of what I mean....as fans looking at the schedule we might think "There's no way we lose to MSU, UCLA, MD, WIS, or Purdue" when actually the odds of losing to at least one of those games is certainly more than 50%.....using the #s above, it's 70%. It's human nature to think otherwise, which is the reason that 80% of fan forums are pissed by the end of any given season............

 

[Seyton]

I follow Illinois and I can tell you that they've been recruiting very well this offseason. That will be a very difficult game - one of those games where simply being at home makes all the difference.

I think we can play very, very well and go 8-4, though I'm predicting 9-3, but I think 10-2 is doable as well.

 

[DANC]

I see where Rhule has cancelled their annual spring game with an explanation of; “no use with opponents having film to steal your plays.”

Wow, they get HUGE crowds for their Spring game, too.

 

[DANC]

With next season's schedule, I think 9 wins is the floor. I expect Vegas to once again undervalue us and put us at like 7.5 wins for the O/U for next season. I pray they put us at 6.5, but I doubt they go that low. Here are my predictions:

NON CONFERENCE

Aug. 30 – Old Dominion WIN
Sept. 6 – Kennesaw State WIN
Sept. 13 – Indiana State WIN

CONFERENCE

Sept. 20 – vs. Illinois WIN
Sept. 27 – at Iowa TOSS UP
Oct. 11 – at Oregon LOSS
Oct. 18 – vs. Michigan State WIN
Oct. 25 – vs. UCLA WIN
Nov. 1 – at Maryland WIN
Nov. 8 – at Penn State LOSS
Nov. 15 – vs. Wisconsin WIN
Nov. 29 – at Purdue WIN

Since we have mostly filled out our roster at this point, I feel pretty confident about my picks. I think we have upgraded in the the portal and overachieved in retaining our top talent. Kamara went through Senior Day and was definitely going to get drafted if he went pro. Getting him to come back for one more season was bigger than any defensive upgrade we could have possibly gotten in the portal. Mendoza is an upgrade over Rourke, which is crazy to say since Rourke was outstanding. Coogan is the biggest prize on the Oline and he's a major upgrade at whatever position he plays. The rest of our holes have been filled with what seem to be very productive players who should at least maintain the level of play we saw on the field last season.

If we beat Iowa in Iowa City and go 10-2, I think we make the CFP again. Unless we get shellacked at both PSU and Oregon, 10-2 will probably be good enough to get into the CFP. Honestly, 10-2 should be good enough for B10 and SEC teams to make the playoffs each year with those 2 conferences clearly being the top dogs and producing the best teams. 9-3 is where the bubble talk will start imo. I think we can start getting used to at least being in the CFP discussion on a yearly basis as long as Cig is in charge.

10-2 would not have gotten us in this year.

We need to beat either PSU or Oregon to get in next year, imo. Otherwise, they'll say we didnt beat anyone.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

I follow Illinois and I can tell you that they've been recruiting very well this offseason. That will be a very difficult game - one of those games where simply being at home makes all the difference.

I think we can play very, very well and go 8-4, though I'm predicting 9-3, but I think 10-2 is doable as well.

Also, Fat Boy is a darn good coach.............

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Wow, they get HUGE crowds for their Spring game, too.

They'll remember him cancelling the spring game if they win a game or two less than they expect.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

10-2 would not have gotten us in this year.

We need to beat either PSU or Oregon to get in next year, imo. Otherwise, they'll say we didnt beat anyone.

I agree. More than likely we'll need 11-1 again. Our preseason schedule is a joke.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Also, Fat Boy is a darn good coach.............

Fat Boy absolutely Mind Fvcked Shane Beamer.

 

[DANC]

They'll remember him cancelling the spring game if they win a game or two less than they expect.

I just remember Allen cancelling a Spring game and really de-emphisizing them. That's a kick in the groin to long time fans, imo.

And that's us, where we draw maybe 3k or so. I'll be interested to see tha attendance this year - I bet it'll be close to 10k.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Wow, they get HUGE crowds for their Spring game, too.

I see where Rhule has cancelled their annual spring game with an explanation of; “no use with opponents having film to steal your plays.”

When I read that, I mentally read it as "...steal your players". That would be a bigger concern if I was a HC......losing players in the portal.....Stealing your plays is BS....

 

[DANC]

I agree. More than likely we'll need 11-1 again. Our preseason schedule is a joke.

I mean, if we beat Illinois and they have a 9 or 10 win season and we beat Iowa and they have a strong record (winning in Iowa City is tough) and have strong games vs PSU and Oregon, then maybe 10-2 gets us in.

But you know the pressure will be on to downgrade us next year. The SEC can't stand it.

Personally, I think we have a good chance vs both Oregon and PSU. I bet our game vs Oregon is a shootout. If we can manage any offense against PSU, I think our defense is strong enough to hold PSU's offense and pull out a win.

 

[Tammany Hall]

10-2 with our schedule we’ll get in. Two wins would be home Illinois or at Iowa/PSU/Oregon. Metrics will be too strong to ignore.

I’m worried about the Illinois opener for now though… we have a ways to go before worrying about the playoff again.

 

[DANC]

10-2 with our schedule we’ll get in. Two wins would be home Illinois or at Iowa/PSU/Oregon. Metrics will be too strong to ignore.

I’m worried about the Illinois opener for now though… we have a ways to go before worrying about the playoff again.

You'd think. But as soon as we beat any of those teams, they will drop like a rock in the rankings

 

[CG Paul]

You'd think. But as soon as we beat any of those teams, they will drop like a rock in the rankings

I don’t see that happening next season (edit: nearly as much). Just another benefit from the great season they just had.

IU should be ranked in top 25 (we’ll see). Where last season I think we started around 55. Also, the pundits will remember last season and just may realize, now, this is a pretty darn good program.

 

[DANC]

I don’t see that happening next season (edit: nearly as much). Just another benefit from the great season they just had.

IU should be ranked in top 25 (we’ll see). Where last season I think we started around 55. Also, the pundits will remember last season and just may realize, now, this is a pretty darn good program.

Hope you're right. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Tammany Hall]

I just remember Allen cancelling a Spring game and really de-emphisizing them. That's a kick in the groin to long time fans, imo.

And that's us, where we draw maybe 3k or so. I'll be interested to see tha attendance this year - I bet it'll be close to 10k.

With all these new players I’m very excited about the Spring game. Midday Saturday start time vs Thursday night last year will help too, plus of course we have way more fan interest now.

10K crowd and it would outdraw the last Hoosier Hysteria… football school vbg.

 

[82IU]

Agree with most of what you said, but I’m reluctant to say “Mendoza is an upgrade over Rourke”. When I heard Rouke went through the entire season without an ACL, he became one of my top 3:Hoosiers of all time.

Hard to top Mike Harkrader. He supposedly played a game with 2 broken legs or so legend would have it!!
82

 

[DANC]

With all these new players I’m very excited about the Spring game. Midday Saturday start time vs Thursday night last year will help too, plus of course we have way more fan interest now.

10K crowd and it would outdraw the last Hoosier Hysteria… football school vbg.

Kudos to Cig and/or Dolson for giving IU FB a prime time spot.

Maybe it's to make up for the money-grab 'seat license' scam.

 

[DANC]

Hard to top Mike Harkrader. He supposedly played a game with 2 broken legs or so legend would have it!!
82

I think one was broken and then he broke the other one after Purdue tackled him into a fence that was about 30 feet out of bounds. No call, of course. He went out of the game after that one.

 

[zeke4ahs]

Absolutely, our success is dependent on staying basically injury-free. Our S & C with Coach Owings & staff should carry us a long way toward that goal.

Injury free is so huge. That’s part of what made this a magical season. Playing our hearts out, a favorable schedule, and being injury free. How many years did we get snake bit with really bad a numerous injuries? We were super lucky Rourke was such a bad ass.

 

[zeke4ahs]

Then lets just move it up a week, weather might be better and away from Turkey day.

I hate playing that game Thanksgiving weekend without many of the students. Although kudos to them this year, as so many came back. Students are going to be fired up for football this year!

 

[CG Paul]

Injury free is so huge. That’s part of what made this a magical season. Playing our hearts out, a favorable schedule, and being injury free. How many years did we get snake bit with really bad a numerous injuries? We were super lucky Rourke was such a bad ass.

Yes, and we also found out that CIG keeps news regarding any injuries very quiet (which is fine).

 

[kmathum]

I mean, if we beat Illinois and they have a 9 or 10 win season and we beat Iowa and they have a strong record (winning in Iowa City is tough) and have strong games vs PSU and Oregon, then maybe 10-2 gets us in.

But you know the pressure will be on to downgrade us next year. The SEC can't stand it.

Personally, I think we have a good chance vs both Oregon and PSU. I bet our game vs Oregon is a shootout. If we can manage any offense against PSU, I think our defense is strong enough to hold PSU's offense and pull out a win.

The opportunities for another special season are certainly going to be there.

 

[Irregulars]

Absolutely, our success is dependent on staying basically injury-free. Our S & C with Coach Owings & staff should carry us a long way toward that goal.

Like the vast majority of B1G teams our second unit is not as good as our first but I think our second unit is thinner than most B1G teams, mainly because our first unit OL is a real step up from the middle of the pack B1G's first units. Our first unit will be the second or third best O-line in the B1G. Can we keep it healthy?? The million $ question.

 

[Irregulars]

Then lets just move it up a week, weather might be better and away from Turkey day.

We would be the only rivalry game that Saturday. Students would still be in town. But we don't control anything about a Purdue home game.