OT-KenPom Ratings. I know some treat them as gospel...
- Thread starter Tony20
- Start date
I love the position that we are in at the moment, but the
difference between IU and Minnesota might not be as great as you think. Counting Maryland, IU will likely be the underdog in 5 of the next 7 games. Hopefully we can pull a surprise or two, but it would be far from shocking for IU to be 6-6 heading in to our home tilt with Minnesota. The Gophers could be 5-7 themselves at that point.
The Big 10 is so even that only Wisconsin is immune to a bad stretch. Crean and the team have done an outstanding job of putting themselves in a great position, but it will be a dogfight to maintain that position through the next 7 games.
The conference season has been a fun ride so far, but there's a long way to go yet.
difference between IU and Minnesota might not be as great as you think. Counting Maryland, IU will likely be the underdog in 5 of the next 7 games. Hopefully we can pull a surprise or two, but it would be far from shocking for IU to be 6-6 heading in to our home tilt with Minnesota. The Gophers could be 5-7 themselves at that point.
The Big 10 is so even that only Wisconsin is immune to a bad stretch. Crean and the team have done an outstanding job of putting themselves in a great position, but it will be a dogfight to maintain that position through the next 7 games.
The conference season has been a fun ride so far, but there's a long way to go yet.
IU worst case scenario will be 7-5 after 12 games.
Rutgers and Michigan are wins and I expect IU to win at least 1 of 3 against Maryland, OSU and Purdue. Don't sell this team short.
Rutgers and Michigan are wins and I expect IU to win at least 1 of 3 against Maryland, OSU and Purdue. Don't sell this team short.
No, it's not a joke. Our Defense has been a joke.
Our lower tier schedule has been a joke. And those my friend are the reasons for our Kenpom ranking you claim as a joke. The fact that we pulled out some close victories that could've gone either way don't have any bearing on Kenpom's ranking system. We EASILY could have lost to Illinois and O$U. Even PSU for that matter, but let's stick with the first two.
About 4-5 plays going the other way in those 2 games would put us at 12-6 (2-3 B10), and obviously deservedly unranked. And since Ken doesn't care about wins and losses, those 4-5 plays wouldn't swing our numbers that much from their current levels, maybe 4-5 spots. So, our ranking would be probably in the 58-60 range. Sounds about right to me.
The way I interpret Ken's ranking is that we have a razor thin margin for error. That is largely why I'm pretty nervous for the upcoming 5-6 games. I'm afraid his ranking of us could become quite accurate toward the end of that stretch.
I'm sure others, like yourself, see it differently but that is my view.
Our lower tier schedule has been a joke. And those my friend are the reasons for our Kenpom ranking you claim as a joke. The fact that we pulled out some close victories that could've gone either way don't have any bearing on Kenpom's ranking system. We EASILY could have lost to Illinois and O$U. Even PSU for that matter, but let's stick with the first two.
About 4-5 plays going the other way in those 2 games would put us at 12-6 (2-3 B10), and obviously deservedly unranked. And since Ken doesn't care about wins and losses, those 4-5 plays wouldn't swing our numbers that much from their current levels, maybe 4-5 spots. So, our ranking would be probably in the 58-60 range. Sounds about right to me.
The way I interpret Ken's ranking is that we have a razor thin margin for error. That is largely why I'm pretty nervous for the upcoming 5-6 games. I'm afraid his ranking of us could become quite accurate toward the end of that stretch.
I'm sure others, like yourself, see it differently but that is my view.
I think IU is in the counter-KenPom trap that had Wisky #2 all year a few
years ago due to great defensive performances early in the year. Thus their AdjD was extremely low which made their overall rank inflated.
IU is on the other end of the spectrum with lousy defensive numbers which artificially deflates their overall ranking.
If you buy into this you would believe that #33 Davidson, who has worse defense and better offense, is also disproportionately ranked due to its defense.
years ago due to great defensive performances early in the year. Thus their AdjD was extremely low which made their overall rank inflated.
IU is on the other end of the spectrum with lousy defensive numbers which artificially deflates their overall ranking.
If you buy into this you would believe that #33 Davidson, who has worse defense and better offense, is also disproportionately ranked due to its defense.
I think it has more to do with under-appreciating some bad teams.
We've played a plethora more than others. We took plays off after having a lead. In fact it is the only reason we lost to E. Washington. He values beating someone 161-2 if you are capable. If you don't do it, then your ranking suffers. If you didn't get up and down the court or didn't play defense on a few possessions, your ranking suffers.
Our cupcake schedule had CTC experimenting and young guys assuming a cakewalk in more games than others. It is our own fault. But CTC doesn't care about KenPom rankings. He has to develop depth.
Or something.
We've played a plethora more than others. We took plays off after having a lead. In fact it is the only reason we lost to E. Washington. He values beating someone 161-2 if you are capable. If you don't do it, then your ranking suffers. If you didn't get up and down the court or didn't play defense on a few possessions, your ranking suffers.
Our cupcake schedule had CTC experimenting and young guys assuming a cakewalk in more games than others. It is our own fault. But CTC doesn't care about KenPom rankings. He has to develop depth.
Or something.
Most of Minny's losses have been very close games.
The beauty of ratings like KenPom's are that they don't favor winning or losing, but instead simply quantify performance. More often than not, that's a better indicator of quality than win-loss records.
goat
The beauty of ratings like KenPom's are that they don't favor winning or losing, but instead simply quantify performance. More often than not, that's a better indicator of quality than win-loss records.
goat
FWIW, IU is also rated below Minnesota by ESPN's BPI
Of the three ratings I trust at all, only Sagarin has IU rated ahead of Minnesota. Even then, they're in the same neighborhood.
All three of them have IU and Minnesota ranked in the 40s & 50s.
Another tidbit, looking at Sagarin, is that IU has the 2nd worst SOS among teams that have played 6+ games against the Sagarin top 50 (out of about 40 teams). The B1G has a number of teams toward the bottom of SOS among this group
Of the three ratings I trust at all, only Sagarin has IU rated ahead of Minnesota. Even then, they're in the same neighborhood.
All three of them have IU and Minnesota ranked in the 40s & 50s.
Another tidbit, looking at Sagarin, is that IU has the 2nd worst SOS among teams that have played 6+ games against the Sagarin top 50 (out of about 40 teams). The B1G has a number of teams toward the bottom of SOS among this group
That's a likely contributing factor
IU beat some *really* bad teams by 10-20 points, and it has probably turned out that really good teams have beaten them by 20-30 points and even mediocre teams have beaten them by the same margin that IU did.
IU didn't dominate their cream puff schedule in the same way that top 30 teams would have been expected to. So it's dragging down their ratings despite a few good wins.
IU beat some *really* bad teams by 10-20 points, and it has probably turned out that really good teams have beaten them by 20-30 points and even mediocre teams have beaten them by the same margin that IU did.
IU didn't dominate their cream puff schedule in the same way that top 30 teams would have been expected to. So it's dragging down their ratings despite a few good wins.
I'm not selling them short by any means. In fact...
If we can beat Maryland and Purdue, I think we have a shot to share the Big Ten Title. I think Wisconsin will probably lose 4 games, so if IU could make it through the first 12 games with only 4 losses it would be favored in each of the final 6.
It's more than likely a pipe dream, but if we beat Maryland we are taking a giant step in that direction. The other post is simply a statement of facts. We will quite likely be underdogs in 5 of the next 7.
If we can beat Maryland and Purdue, I think we have a shot to share the Big Ten Title. I think Wisconsin will probably lose 4 games, so if IU could make it through the first 12 games with only 4 losses it would be favored in each of the final 6.
It's more than likely a pipe dream, but if we beat Maryland we are taking a giant step in that direction. The other post is simply a statement of facts. We will quite likely be underdogs in 5 of the next 7.
Do you know what his numbers represent?
Just wondering. Maybe you should start there? There's 7 key stats used by basketball professionals, including many NCAA coaches. I don't think anyone looks at his rankings except fans and doubt anyone considers his site a religious book. Just sayin'
Off Eff
Def Eff
Adj Pace
EFG%
Off Reb %
TO %
FTA/ FGA %
Learn those first and then complain about what Kenpom's doing.
Just wondering. Maybe you should start there? There's 7 key stats used by basketball professionals, including many NCAA coaches. I don't think anyone looks at his rankings except fans and doubt anyone considers his site a religious book. Just sayin'
Off Eff
Def Eff
Adj Pace
EFG%
Off Reb %
TO %
FTA/ FGA %
Learn those first and then complain about what Kenpom's doing.
Re: No, it's not a joke. Our Defense has been a joke.
I'm just glad Wins and Losses determines Champions instead of KenPom. I'll gladly take a worse def eff. # if we are a team that can find a way to win close games, especially in conference. Last year, we seemed to let many of those slip away with silly turnovers. There's a maturity to this young team that gives me hope.
I'm just glad Wins and Losses determines Champions instead of KenPom. I'll gladly take a worse def eff. # if we are a team that can find a way to win close games, especially in conference. Last year, we seemed to let many of those slip away with silly turnovers. There's a maturity to this young team that gives me hope.
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