Odds we go dancing

[Cavanagh]

Win vs Rutgers, lose out- 60% shot of making it

Lose vs Rutgers, Win @PU, lose 1st game of BTT- 90% shot

Lose vs Rutgers and PU, win first game of BTT 50/50 shot.

Win 2 games in any way shape or form, 100%.


HUGE GAME TOMORROW

 

[dbmhoosier]

Win tomorrow and I think we’re in.

 

[kurt cloverdales]

Win tomorrow and I think we’re in.

lose Tomm and were done, that would ensure a losing record in the big, and going into the btt with zero momentum

 

[Lucy01]

lose Tomm and were done, that would ensure a losing record in the big, and going into the btt with zero momentum

It's not Tomm, it's Tamar.

 

[Coach Geez]

According to Lunardi, tomorrow's game with Rutgers is essentially a play-in game (for now) as IU and Rutgers are the last two teams in the field. I don't know how Rutgers survives a loss tomorrow unless they run the table in the BTT. Their metric and computer numbers are terrible.

Michigan is still on the right side of the bubble it seems despite being 15-12, computers love the Wolverines. Michigan will be a case study as they can certainly play their way in with games against Michigan State, Iowa, and Ohio State but can certainly play their way out due to sheer number of losses. I don't see how the committee can take a Wolverine team that finishes something like 17-14 despite good computer numbers.

I believe IU needs 2 wins to feel safe, 1 win need a lot of things to go right and avoid upsets in the mid-major conference tournaments.

 

[IUNorth]

Win vs Rutgers, lose out- 60% shot of making it

Lose vs Rutgers, Win @PU, lose 1st game of BTT- 90% shot

Lose vs Rutgers and PU, win first game of BTT 50/50 shot.

Win 2 games in any way shape or form, 100%.


HUGE GAME TOMORROW

My guesses...

Win vs Rutgers, lose out - 50/50 at best.

Lose v Rutgers, Win at PU, lose to Michigan - 90% is a good call.

Lose vs Rutgers and PU...we have to win the BTT in my opinion...so whatever chance should be put on that happening. 5% maybe?

Win 2 games...if those 2 games are Rutgers and Michigan...I don't think its 100 percent. Especially if Purdue and the 1 seed thump us.

Agreed...tomorrow is huge. With the win at Purdue being very, very unlikely. I'd say tomorrow will determine whether we make the tournament or not.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

One more W should do it, especially if it is at the tin sheep barn.

IU sells a lot of seats.

 

[Coach Geez]

Win 2 games...if those 2 games are Rutgers and Michigan...I don't think its 100 percent. Especially if Purdue and the 1 seed thump us.

That's where I disagree. Beat Rutgers AND Michigan, I think we're all but in as long as there aren't widespread upsets in the lower conference tourney's. Beat both those teams I think you position yourself in front of both of those teams on the bubble and you're adding another Q1 win on a neutral court.

 

[IUNorth]

That's where I disagree. Beat Rutgers AND Michigan, I think we're all but in as long as there aren't widespread upsets in the lower conference tourney's. Beat both those teams I think you position yourself in front of both of those teams on the bubble and you're adding another Q1 win on a neutral court.

Maybe...my disclaimer was that if Purdue and then Wisconsin/Purdue both thump us, that look will be bad. And it'll make our Quad 1/2 record even worse.

 

[.Gerdis]

Agreed...tomorrow is huge. With the win at Purdue being very, very unlikely. I'd say tomorrow will determine whether we make the tournament or not.

So, a home game with a bid on the line?

as far as I can tell, RU has a Q4 loss and 2 Q3 losses. They’ve done well in conference play, in a league that is more about brass knuckles, elbows and the like.

could get ugly. I sure hope not.

 

[dbmhoosier]

We're not beating PU or Michigan. Win tomorrow and then hope for no bid stealers.

 

[turney333]

My guesses...

Win vs Rutgers, lose out - 50/50 at best.

Lose v Rutgers, Win at PU, lose to Michigan - 90% is a good call.

Lose vs Rutgers and PU...we have to win the BTT in my opinion...so whatever chance should be put on that happening. 5% maybe?

Win 2 games...if those 2 games are Rutgers and Michigan...I don't think its 100 percent. Especially if Purdue and the 1 seed thump us.

Agreed...tomorrow is huge. With the win at Purdue being very, very unlikely. I'd say tomorrow will determine whether we make the tournament or not.

If IU beats Rutgers then loses the next 2, I think its 80-90%. Big thing is to look at the teams IU would be competing against for the last spots. I think a lot of things would have to go against IU's way for them to miss out

- Win against Rutgers, and IU effectively knocks them out and is then likely securely ahead of BYU, Oregon, SMU, VT for the time being
- BYU has a net of 50 with and a Q4 loss and will need at least 2 and probably 3 wins in the WCC to have a chance to get a spot over IU
- Oregon is 18-11 with a NET 58 and 3 Q3 losses. They will probably need 4 if not 5 wins between their 2 remaining road regular season games and PAC tournament to get a spot over IU
- SMU is a decent 20-7 and NET 47, but only has 2 Q1 wins and 2 Q3/4 losses. They probably need 4 wins
- VT has a good NET of 40, but only has 1 Q1 win and 2 Q3 losses. They probably need 4 wins

Then I think at least 1 if not 2 of the following play themselves out of spot ahead of IU
-Michigan
-Creighton
-Wake
-Miami
-UNC
-Memphis

 

[abraxis]

Lose to Rutgers and PU and our fate will already be penciled in. Even one BTT win doesn't get us in. "It's Indiana!", the curse we've come to expect.

 

[.Gerdis]

Lose to Rutgers and PU and our fate will already be penciled in. Even one BTT win doesn't get us in. "It's Indiana!", the curse we've come to expect.

Get out the popcorn 🍿

 

[abraxis]

Get out the popcorn 🍿

Only because I save Chex-Mix for the holidays-it makes it special.

 

[bailey777]

Win tomorrow and I think we’re in.

Maybe but if we lose the next two after that I would say we are sweating it selection day. I think tomorrow is a must have I have zero faith in us winning a game in the BTT.

 

[bailey777]

We're not beating PU or Michigan. Win tomorrow and then hope for no bid stealers.

I would tend to agree not winning at Purdue and a win in the BTT especially vs Michigan seems unlikely.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

We're not beating PU or Michigan. Win tomorrow and then hope for no bid stealers.

Beating pu in the tin sheep barn is unlikely as this is the biggest game for their nasty fans in that place decades. Put helmets on the bench players and staff and bring some extra security in behind the bench.

A BTT win is not a stretch IMO at all. This will be a home game in Indy regardless of who they play. Simply Wow.

 

[steelyvan]

The first BTT matchup will present IU with a game very similar to the 1st game in the NCAA tourney.
We have to be prepared and demonstrate a lethal mindset, for both.

 

[SoccerSammy]

Beating pu in the tin sheep barn is unlikely as this is the biggest game for their nasty fans in that place decades. Put helmets on the bench players and staff and bring some extra security in behind the bench.

A BTT win is not a stretch IMO at all. This will be a home game in Indy regardless of who they play. Simply Wow.

yes... we've done extremely well with partisan crowds in the BTT for 25 years now

 

[aajohn2000]

According to Lunardi, tomorrow's game with Rutgers is essentially a play-in game (for now) as IU and Rutgers are the last two teams in the field. I don't know how Rutgers survives a loss tomorrow unless they run the table in the BTT. Their metric and computer numbers are terrible.

Michigan is still on the right side of the bubble it seems despite being 15-12, computers love the Wolverines. Michigan will be a case study as they can certainly play their way in with games against Michigan State, Iowa, and Ohio State but can certainly play their way out due to sheer number of losses. I don't see how the committee can take a Wolverine team that finishes something like 17-14 despite good computer numbers.

I believe IU needs 2 wins to feel safe, 1 win need a lot of things to go right and avoid upsets in the mid-major conference tournaments.

Lunardi is a little bitch. I feel like that guy has the appearance of a kid that was pickdd on and given a wedgy daily by bullies.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

yes... we've done extremely well with partisan crowds in the BTT for 25 years now

26 is the one. The line is already forming at Kilroys

 

[Stuffshot]

So, a home game with a bid on the line?

as far as I can tell, RU has a Q4 loss and 2 Q3 losses. They’ve done well in conference play, in a league that is more about brass knuckles, elbows and the like.

could get ugly. I sure hope not.

I have optimism about beating Rutgers.

Lately (i.e. the last 3-4 games), we've gotten quite a bit more from Johnson, significantly more from Phinisee (since he's actually been in the game) and even a bit more from Bates. Meanwhile, Jackson-Davis, Thompson, Stewart and Geronimo have all been solid if not flashy.

No one has consistently been terrible, and we might even get Galloway back soon. I'll credit Woodson for keeping their heads in the game after hitting a rough spot the week of the Northwestern game. Woodson could have lost the team then, but it looks like he didn't.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

Beating pu in the tin sheep barn is unlikely as this is the biggest game for their nasty fans in that place decades. Put helmets on the bench players and staff and bring some extra security in behind the bench.

A BTT win is not a stretch IMO at all. This will be a home game in Indy regardless of who they play. Simply Wow.

And we do so well in Indy at the Big Ten tournament. The rims are so friendly there for IU. We haven’t done squat in Indy in the BTT. If we have a “home crowd” there, it doesn’t seem to factor in at all.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

And we do so well in Indy at the Big Ten tournament. The rims are so friendly there for IU. We haven’t done squat in Indy in the BTT. If we have a “home crowd” there, it doesn’t seem to factor in at all.

Congrats on that

 

[78alum]

It feels like Rutgers has owned IU in recent years. Weren't there 3 losses one year that basically ended the season? This is insane.

 

[go_iu]

Win vs Rutgers, lose out- 60% shot of making it

Lose vs Rutgers, Win @PU, lose 1st game of BTT- 90% shot

Lose vs Rutgers and PU, win first game of BTT 50/50 shot.

Win 2 games in any way shape or form, 100%.


HUGE GAME TOMORROW

I think it would be a big thing to show people and recruits we're turning it around, but realistically, if we got there, there's going to be like one game to show improvement and we're still extremely inconsistent, we just need more talent. Making it would be good to show everybody it's starting to turn though.

 

[Hoosierfan1901]

It feels like Rutgers has owned IU in recent years. Weren't there 3 losses one year that basically ended the season? This is insane.

4 game losing streak against them from Archie

 

[TR32]

The way I see it, Big Ten most likely gets 8. That means 10-10 is not good enough unless Michigan is also 10-10. Then IU will get in over Michigan....unless Michigan beats IU AGAIN in the BTT.

Bubble most to least:
Michigan
Indiana
Iowa
MSU
Rutgers

If Rutgers beats Indiana or PSU, they are in.
If MSU beats OSU or Maryland, they are in.
If Iowa beats Michigan or Illinois, they are in.
If Indiana beats Purdue, they are probably in. If they beat Rutgers but lose the next 2, they are probably out. If they beat Rutgers and PU, they are in.
If Michigan beats Iowa or OSU, they are in.

 

[bailey777]

4 game losing streak against them from Archie

Archie yep freds boy.

 

[abraxis]

And we do so well in Indy at the Big Ten tournament. The rims are so friendly there for IU. We haven’t done squat in Indy in the BTT. If we have a “home crowd” there, it doesn’t seem to factor in at all.

Aren't these the same rims and "home" crowd that have given us (dis) advantage in the Crossroads Classic with the best overall record? I don't know what it is about the BTT that has haunted IU for so many years. Back in Knight's day, we blamed our relatively poor performances on Knight not liking the extra tournament, not emphasizing it. He saw the regular season record as a more meaningful accomplishment and this one as simply a money making inspiration, not taking "the kids" into consideration.