It was a good print. Need the trend to continue for several months and the FED might pivot.
October CPI
- Thread starter snarlcakes
- Start date
It was a good print. Need the trend to continue for several months and the FED might pivot.
Stock market gains today so far are crazy. Seems negative CPI news gets more attention than good news. Appreciate you sharing.
Agree, we need to see this sustained.
Agree, we need to see this sustained.
Maybe the economy is healthier than we think, and it's just taking a while for the indicators to catch up. That would explain the surprisingly minimal effect the economy apparently had on the election.
How is that getting more attention considering hte markets are up 3%+ because inflation was lower than expectations?
Hopefully sooner than planned.
You're just glad BTC has recouped some of its value deterioration.
Not sure I see how you concluded that.
If anything, it demonstrates the lag affect that many have discussed (I believe snarlcakes linked an interview with Lazard's CEO discussing that) related to rate increases. Inflation is slowing more likely because consumer demand has fallen off (retail sales peaked in June), manufacturing growth is falling (October PMI at 50.2 and likely headed into contraction territory from expansion - 50 is the changeover mark), and retailers and other suppliers have higher levels of inventory than they need, resulting in discounted pricing.
FWIW, I personally think this is going to be a fairly mild and short recession, given employment strength and general fiscal conditions of businesses and consumers.
I don't know anything so nobody should listen to me. And as always, this is not investing advice.
I enjoy sharp drops when I’m able to buy Bitcoin😁 Stay away from shitcoins. They’re going to 0.
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Good News, my shitcoins are up 33% from their low a short time ago. Now all I need is another +2000% ish to break even.
Beats me. I'm just throwing shit against the wall here.Not sure I see how you concluded that.
If anything, it demonstrates the lag affect that many have discussed (I believe snarlcakes linked an interview with Lazard's CEO discussing that) related to rate increases. Inflation is slowing more likely because consumer demand has fallen off (retail sales peaked in June), manufacturing growth is falling (October PMI at 50.2 and likely headed into contraction territory from expansion - 50 is the changeover mark), and retailers and other suppliers have higher levels of inventory than they need, resulting in discounted pricing.
FWIW, I personally think this is going to be a fairly mild and short recession, given employment strength and general fiscal conditions of businesses and consumers.
I don't know anything so nobody should listen to me. And as always, this is not investing advice.
Well you could have at least called me out for using the wrong spelling of "affect"! Doh!
GDP growth exceeded expectations, so inflation is easing while growth is relatively strong, (2.5%); this is while people are freaking out about a recession.
While I don't claim to know shit, I'm still convinced that as long as anyone who wants a job has one or can get one, all the rest can be handled.
^^^ IF you want something, you will go get it, zero exception. White, black, hetro, stick licker, do everything, do nothing, don't know what to do or when to do it... err'body. If you want it, you will go get it. THose who won't, get Libs to give it to them.
SOOOO, with the algorithm that they use to calculate CPI, isn't it HEAVILY weighted on housing cost? If so, that one major high value single data point (a house is $500k, eggs are $1.99) unilaterally effects the output, right? whether eggs, shoes, cars, cheese, heating oil... are still on the rise or not, right?
Not sure. A recession is on its way, most likely, next year. No clue on how bad. The 70s inflation had several periods where inflation dropped and then proceeded to go back up.
The FED doesn’t have the luxury of low debt, like they had in the 70s, so they are limited and on how high and long they can keep rates up before we get into a debt spiral (worse one). I think we’re in for an extended period of stagflation as they inflate their way out of debt. I’m not sure how else they can get out of it.
I’m not sure on how it’s weighted, but Core CPI strips out food and energy.
Prices now are our new floor. Due to the new wage expectations. Those that do not have the market band width to lower prices and only make $.01 on each transaction will go out of business, file bankruptcy and that will drive up startup cost, killing start ups.
Be prepared for higher joblessness, and people becoming more dependent on someone else paying for their existence (since they are incapable of being self sufficient) .
The product of "free" money and forcing us to be dependent on DC with this man made economy. the human species has been dumbed down, taught to NOT learn about selfsustainment, so that humanity is controlled by DC. The experiment is damn near complete. All we need is one Nuclear war to end humanity and have all humans die for DC. Joe is about to write the last chapter. WE go out together.
Be prepared for higher joblessness, and people becoming more dependent on someone else paying for their existence (since they are incapable of being self sufficient) .
The product of "free" money and forcing us to be dependent on DC with this man made economy. the human species has been dumbed down, taught to NOT learn about selfsustainment, so that humanity is controlled by DC. The experiment is damn near complete. All we need is one Nuclear war to end humanity and have all humans die for DC. Joe is about to write the last chapter. WE go out together.
Hmm, food as in grocery or food at Ruth's Chris? Huge diff and very important to trust the answer.
Likewise where is the cut off for "Energy"? What does "energy really mean"?
Asking, not poking hole's in your answer !
EVERYTHING that touches my life (I'm not buying a home, or vehicle) is more expensive week to week. It would be really nice to know the EXACT formula that they use (uhhhm, under this adim).
the question always becomes how much more difficult is it to get or keep a job after things start falling apart. Housing is basically dead, so where are those workers going? Tech layoffs have been quite heavy. What jobs are they going to move to?
I’m not sure where they cut it off and I’m too tired to look it up. I will add that there was still decent amount of inflation m/m. It was basically 5% if you average out annually. So, prices of goods are still going up. The market was happy because it looks like it has peaked and the chances of the FED pivoting are greater.
Tech layoffs have been heavy but so are the re-hires.
What the Big Tech layoffs mean for the economy
Tech giants are in crisis. Time to panic?
theweek.com
Tech layoffs have been heavy but so are the re-hires.
What the Big Tech layoffs mean for the economy
Tech giants are in crisis. Time to panic?
I would like to see an analysis that shows prior role plus compensation vs new role plus compensation.
I’m skeptical that tech is hiring for the same level/quality of positions and I’m near certain that moving from big tech to smaller tech reduces workers income and thus, likely spending power.
Not a great look prior to the holiday season
www.freightwaves.com
FedEx Freight to begin driver furloughs next month
The furloughs are set to begin in early December, and will be voluntary, the unit says.
www.freightwaves.com
Are you telling me the economy isn’t in great shape? I read today that housing prices need to come down 40% to get back to long term price trends. If inflation stays elevated, it’s not that bad of situation for buyers, but if inflation crashes, watch out.Not a great look prior to the holiday season
FedEx Freight to begin driver furloughs next month
The furloughs are set to begin in early December, and will be voluntary, the unit says.
This has been the roughest year that i can remember. '20 and '21 were some of the best, the raw material supply chain is still brutal. Pricing has normalized. Lost a pretty good customer yesterday, b/c we literally could not get them the product....i always choose a bad week to stop drinking.
Putting an LOI to purchase a company (non-binding)...could be a good thing, but shitty timing.
Timing should be good to buy. You no longer have to overpay and terms are such where this is a buyers market.
Not directly on point, but my puny little portfolio is coming back... slowly. It had lost 22% at it's worst (over the Jan 22 high) but is now only down 15%.
Show off. My ytd is -22.6 after recent gains
My largest single investment is T Rowe Large Cap Growth, and is -31% ytd. So my others aren't doing so poorly.
I am wondering if "growth" is an appropriate name?
I look regularly but have been able to avoid getting worked up over it. I'm hopefully a long way away from having to tap into it; for now my cash flow still covers everything I need it to and a little more, and I have a stash of cash available if needed.
Today was the wife's birthday. We went out to dinner for the first time in nearly three years, since before Covid. We won't wait another three years before doing it again, but it's not something we do very often at all, even though money is not an issue. Once you learn how to live like a pauper, loosening up just doesn't hold much appeal.
Woof, yield curve inversion at largest level in four decades
mishtalk.com
US Treasury Yield Curve Is One of the Most Inverted in History
Strong Recession Signal Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 10-year Treasury Note was only more inverted ahead of the 2001 recession. Since
mishtalk.com
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