Honestly, I'm not super confident about either. Rutgers is a tough-minded team who is going to come in believing they are tougher than us and that if they just play hard, we will fold. PU is probably going to be looking for revenge and may be playing to get a share of a BT title.
Not nearly as confident about an at large...
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Yes, and I certainly agree.
I was throwing circumstances, venue, and intangibles out the window, and just looking at mere style.
any home game is probably going to be easier than playing at Mackey on the final conference game of the season, when they are playing for a likely piece of the B10 crown.
**edit. I would put the RU game up there as a potential 10/10 on the potential for chippiness. They are going to try to get under our skin, and hope for a grind of a game like Wisconsin or MSU. We need to keep our cool tomorrow.
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All indications point to tomorrow being a test as to where this team is.
Have they turned the corner and play tough hard nosed, old fashion IU ball?
After Wis and Minny, have they learned that their margin of error is so small that they can't take any possessions off?
The goal of the NCAA is within reach. How bad do they want it?
It will be interesting and potentially frustrating!
Have they turned the corner and play tough hard nosed, old fashion IU ball?
After Wis and Minny, have they learned that their margin of error is so small that they can't take any possessions off?
The goal of the NCAA is within reach. How bad do they want it?
It will be interesting and potentially frustrating!
Rutgers isn’t a lock. Too many bad losses. They have at least 3 Quad 3/4 losses. IU has 0 such losses.
The way I see it, win 2 of the next 3 and it won’t matter what happens with other teams. From best chance to make it to worst:
A Lock.
Rutgers-W
PU-W
1st BTT game-W
99.5% Chance
Rutgers-W
PU-L
1st BTT game-W
99% Chance
Rutgers-W
PU-W
1st BTT game-L
98.5% Chance
Rutgers-L
PU-W
1st BTT game-W
65% Chance
Rutgers-L
PU-L
Lose in the BTT final
50% Chance
Rutgers-L
PU-W
1st BTT game-L
The Quad 1 road win would be the only such win on the resume.
If it plays out that IND beats RUTG, loses to PUR and loses its first BTT game, where would you assess the percentage of getting in?
I'd actually put it a little higher. The back of the bubble is very very poor. (WYO losing last night helped, although Lunardi still thinks a lot more highly of WYO than I do).
A lot of y'all know more than me but if they beat Rutgers and win a B1G Tourney game and still get left out I'll wear a Purdue shirt for a week.
DAMN, now that is putting it out there. I sure hope that doesn't come back to bite you in the ass!!
and several teams on the front of the bubble are hanging there by a thread. Wake/UNC/VT only have 1 Q1 win each. Miami/Memphis have several bad losses. Mich is 15-12, with 3 very loseable games left. Mich even being considered a high bubble team is largely because the computers weirdly like them and starting the season highly rated, because their resume is petty mediocre even with a very good SOS
Memphis is looking pretty scary lately. I wouldn’t want any part of them if I were a higher seed in the Tourney.
I agree that the bubble looks to be weaker than usual, but it seems that IU having 0 Quad 3/4 losses matters less than it should, so adding only another Quad 3 win might not move the needle much, if at all. 2 wins out of the next 3 games should insulate IU against multiple bid stealers, of which I think there will be many.
UNC will make it simply on name only, even though they shouldn't. I don't get why WAKE is so far ahead of us on everyone's board.
Wake is benefiting from an ACC bias. 22-8 (12-7) and no bad losses in the ACC is historically probably a 5/6 seed, not a bubble team. However, the ACC is historically bad and probably only deserves 2 teams (Duke/ND).
I think that an IU win against Rutgers even with 2 more losses (Pur/BTT) and IU is probably gets in before Wake, unless they make the ACC tournament final, especially given that the committee might be positioned to gift the ACC 2 additional teams (Miami/UNC) before Wake
Massive game for both team's bubble chances with Indiana having Purdue next and Rutgers not being able to take losses
The general consensus on the Rutgers bubble picture from experts and our board seems to be if we beat Indiana and PSU we are essentially a lock. One loss and we need 1 maybe 2 B1G tournament wins depending on who we lost to and who we play in the tournament
There is a good chance Michigan, Indiana, and Rutgers are all on the bubble and we see a direct matchup in the B1G tournament that will essentially be a NCAA play in game
The general consensus on the Rutgers bubble picture from experts and our board seems to be if we beat Indiana and PSU we are essentially a lock. One loss and we need 1 maybe 2 B1G tournament wins depending on who we lost to and who we play in the tournament
There is a good chance Michigan, Indiana, and Rutgers are all on the bubble and we see a direct matchup in the B1G tournament that will essentially be a NCAA play in game
Nonsense.
Iowa a week from now, 11-9, 2 game losing streak only good wins =MSU, IU, @OSU.
Rutgers a week from now, 11-9 wins over Wisconsin, Illinois, MSU, OSU, PU, Iowa
Michigan State a week from now, 11-9, lost 7 of last 10. Wins over @ Wisconsin, PU, IU.
Indiana a week from now, 10-10, sole possession of 9th place in a conference that has only taken 9 once ever. Wins over ND, PU, OSU, Rutgers
Michigan a week from now 10-10. Only 17 wins but wins over Iowa(2), MSU, Rutgers, PU, IU.
Pretty clear who the loser is if it plays out that way.
Root like heck for Iowa and OSU to beat Michigan. Rutgers is going to be 11-9 and a lock.
What place you finish in in a conference makes up roughly 0% of the determination of your tournament status. Literally 0%.
Rutgers NET
Indiana NET
Rutgers fan here. None of us feel like RU will be a lock with a loss tonight, win over Penn State, and a loss in the B1G opener. Our NET is an anchor from playing like garbage in November and losing to bad teams, plus not hammering the bad teams we beat. I will feel pretty secure about our chances if we win the next two, but still a little nervous.
One tough spot for Indiana is even if you win tonight, that's only a Q3 win for you because our NET stinks. Lovely system, isn't it?
Let's hope for no injuries tonight. I won't say good luck because I wouldn't mean it. I saw Wisconsin bank in two deep shots in the last minute to beat Purdue yesterday. I don't want to see Indiana have the same luck against us!
One tough spot for Indiana is even if you win tonight, that's only a Q3 win for you because our NET stinks. Lovely system, isn't it?
Let's hope for no injuries tonight. I won't say good luck because I wouldn't mean it. I saw Wisconsin bank in two deep shots in the last minute to beat Purdue yesterday. I don't want to see Indiana have the same luck against us!
The Selection Committee does not assign any relevancy to conference records. What is relevant to the committee is who you beat (conference or non-conf.), who you lost to, and where you played them. Rutgers has 3 Quad 3/4 losses (to IU’s 0), which is why it’s NET is so much lower than IU’s. The criteria you propose make sense on some level but simply put, those criteria are not what the committee considers.
We'd take it--better to have a Q3 win than a Q3 loss on the resume.
That is true. Back in 2013, seven B1G teams got in--IND, MICH, OSU, MSU, WISC, MINN and ILL. IOWA was left out, but finished ahead of MINN and ILL in the standings. Difference was ILL and MINN had better wins, and IOWA had two horrid losses to NEB and VT.
Thing is the ACC is pretty weak this year. Duke’s a top 10 team, but ND and UNC have struggled. UVA who would be competing most years is awful.
Now 6 locks... Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, OSU, Iowa, Rutgers
Work left to do.... MSU, one loss away from being squarely on the bubble
UM, after losing to Iowa they now will have to win at OSU to have any chance.
Outside chance...Indiana. Must beat Purdue to keep any tourney hopes alive.
Work left to do.... MSU, one loss away from being squarely on the bubble
UM, after losing to Iowa they now will have to win at OSU to have any chance.
Outside chance...Indiana. Must beat Purdue to keep any tourney hopes alive.
I wont bet my house on it but the chances of us winning saturday are like 5%.
Well, you're wrong again. Both Michigan and Indiana can lose this weekend but if they win two in the BTT, they're in.
Conference tourneys will be key.
big ten has Pu, IL, Iowa, UW, OSU all between 13-21 in NET. MI is 34, State 40, IU 45 and RU 75.
Take a look at the Mountain West:
San Diego st 27
Col st. 28
Boise st. 30
WY. 47
Fresno st. 67
Utah. St. 70
How many bids they get is a big question, and what happens if some dark horse gets the auto from that conference?
big ten has Pu, IL, Iowa, UW, OSU all between 13-21 in NET. MI is 34, State 40, IU 45 and RU 75.
Take a look at the Mountain West:
San Diego st 27
Col st. 28
Boise st. 30
WY. 47
Fresno st. 67
Utah. St. 70
How many bids they get is a big question, and what happens if some dark horse gets the auto from that conference?
MICH could win two in the BTT. IND won’t.
The last time IND played a Saturday BTT game was…2013. Prior to that, you have to go all the way back to 2006 (which also was the last time IND won two games in the BTT).
That’s not a trend I would buck. Better teams than this one went one-and-out. We shouldn’t expect anything different.
Wholeheartedly agree. I'll be surprised if we ever win a game in the BTT again, let alone two in one year.
I was correct. Michigan would not have made it had they lost to OSU on March 6th. Also, IU had to win 2 to even be in consideration. They were 67th after beating Illinois. That put them at 11-12 in conference games which was a dangerous spot. About as close as you can get.
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