I’d love to see the Big XII pull all six of those schools after being left for dead last summer.
ND in B1G?
- Thread starter vesuvius13
- Start date
I think eventually ND won't have a choice with all the other consolidation, and the Big Ten is really the natural home for them, always has been. In fact, geographically you can't get much more in Big Ten country than South Bend. And if Georgia Tech joins, as another post on here says, they can call their matchup The Rudy Game.ND is a total question mark, I have no idea how much money they are willing to eat to remain independent, but with the payout they would receive in the new B1G, it's going do be somewhere in the neighborhood of $70-80 million dollars...Annually. No normal university would pass up on that money, but they are already eating at least 30 million dollars a year rn by being independent/ACC, so clearly for better or worse they do not act like a normal University. Some ND fans want to continue to cry about Michigan trying to kill ND's FB program over 100 years ago, and say because of that, ND will NEVER join the B1G. Well if the last 13 months have shown us one thing, it's that CFB programs are more than happy to take a wrecking ball to history if it means a bigger payday. If I were a betting man, I'd say odds are as high now as they've ever been for ND to join the B1G, but until I see anything official, I wouldn't hold my breath on the matter.
What I will say is that ND would be IDIOTIC to join any conference other than the B1G. If we are working with the premise that they have to join one conference, even though they're associated with the ACC their current schedule only has 3 teams that are on it every year and none are in the ACC; The three teams are USC, Stanford and Navy. They certainly aren't joining Navy in the AAC and they're not joining the new Pac-12, that just leaves the B1G. They would be able to retain the USC rivalry as one of their required conference games. If they really wanted to keep Stanford and Navy on the schedule, they could do that and give themselves one more flex game. They wouldn't get that flexibility in either the ACC or SEC because USC would be an OOC game(working with the premise that both conferences will be at 9 required conference games by the time ND actually joins).
Oregon is simple, does the B1G want them, they clearly want out of the Pac-12, and have been a good enough program in FB over the last two decades to join, but w/o Phil Knight, the TV market Oregon brings in wouldn't even make it past the doors of the B1G office. I linked an article below that said according to a former Executive at Fox Sports, Oregon and Washington do not add enough value to make up the 141 million they'd be owed as full members of the B1G(the estimate cited in the article was $60 million), so the B1G may have to work something out where they don't get a full payout initially, or just turn them down altogether.
Canzano: Pac-12 gut punch comes with a cost
Ex-Fox Sports Network executive weighs in; could Oregon-Washington be next for Big Ten?www.johncanzano.com
It's obvious the conferences ignored the travel distances, which really is a major issue if you consider the state of air travel today. I also think the Big Ten will have to stay now with the geographical divisions, which I think over time will help IU. Getting to play the Big Four every season is a recruiting plus, even if you beat them only occasionally.
I expect the conference to construct some kind of collective "travel subsidy" for USC, UCLA and whatever current schools (Nebraska? Iowa? Minnesota?) end up making the most trips to and from Los Angeles.
They all charter for football, so the current state of commercial air travel won’t impact them at all.
USC and UCLA probably spend as much on coaches' recruiting trips (in all sports) to the East Coast as they do on football travel.
First off, I HATE ND and would love for the B1G to tell them to go eff themselves. Sanctimonious jerks.
Second, is the B1G concerned with TV markets or size of alumni bases? Is the future tied to TV contracts or streaming services? If I can spend $20/month to watch all IUFB games I'm all in: much cheaper than cable which I gave up several years ago.
If it is TV markets; target Stanford, Boston College, Miami, Georgia Tech and North Carolina. Streaming services? Target large alumni base schools.
Now for the crazy thought: with USC/UCLA in the fold what is to prevent the B1G from taking a run at Texas and Oklahoma? IIRC they are tied to the B12 thru 2025? How much is the B1G contract worth with those two added? Probably enough to make them think twice about the SEC.
Second, is the B1G concerned with TV markets or size of alumni bases? Is the future tied to TV contracts or streaming services? If I can spend $20/month to watch all IUFB games I'm all in: much cheaper than cable which I gave up several years ago.
If it is TV markets; target Stanford, Boston College, Miami, Georgia Tech and North Carolina. Streaming services? Target large alumni base schools.
Now for the crazy thought: with USC/UCLA in the fold what is to prevent the B1G from taking a run at Texas and Oklahoma? IIRC they are tied to the B12 thru 2025? How much is the B1G contract worth with those two added? Probably enough to make them think twice about the SEC.
I thought TX & OK were already under contract with the SEC...
I read somewhere that the Big 10 was considering up to 24... Makes one wonder who would make up those last four...
We already know the candidates for the next four...
Leaving ND to the side for a moment, the next four would be Washington, Oregon, Cal and Stanford. Five through eight would likely be Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah.
It is tough waiting to see who else the B1G brings in but college presidents move at a different pace than fans do.
Seem to be moving pretty fast for UCLA and SC, compared to the glacial pace on other issues.
Sure, alumni base is very important but Nielson DMA's are what's used as a measure of currency for contract negotiations..... Nielson measures ALL viewing in a household, whether it's an over-the-air tv signal, cable, streaming, online, etc. If a home is a Nielson household then anything in the household that can receive the program is measured and included in the ratings.
If someone's a loyal alum they'll usually find a way to watch regardless of the lack of carriers where they live. It's the casual fan they want to watch to drive the numbers above average.
IIRC once upon a time Texas approached the B1G 10 about them and Oklahoma joining but they were told "we'd love for you to join but not (non-AAU) Oklahoma."
imo, ND joining a league, would be like Samson cutting off his hair.
independence is what sets ND apart. it's it's greatest source of strength.
once it joins a conference, it becomes just another school.
independence is what sets ND apart. it's it's greatest source of strength.
once it joins a conference, it becomes just another school.
i understand exactly.
it's you who doesn't.
and if the conferences tried to blackball ND, if you think they wouldn't get sued and it would go to the courts, then you live in a dream world.
Blackballing? So you obviously still don't understand. The B1G and the SEC will simply form their own allegiance. They would no longer play any other team in any other conference. Its not about blackballing as them just deciding to do their own thing. You can cry about it but its 100% what will be happening.
The BiG and SEC aren’t breaking away so they can play only among themselves. That’s not happening.
At a certain size/number (24, 32, whatever) the only sensible approach is to essentially become their own "leagues" and only compete with other league members.
I assume they are contracted to the SEC currently but clearly the gloves are off in this new world. I'm sure there would be some sort of exit fee. My point is the B1G already commands more per school than any other conference: add USC/UCLA and UT/OU and how big does it get? How about NC, UVA, Miami and Stanford or BC?
It is stupid the money athletics commands; but it just may be enough for UT & OU to take one step back (leaving the SEC before even joining) to take one giant leap forward (joining the all new B1G).
Football really matters to the UT & OU fans. And weather. They will love the SEC and would hate being in the Big 10. The academics aren't going to push the matter. They know their place.
My question would be if ND can get out of that $150-175M they will owe the other ACC teams if they can convince FSU, Miami, Clemson, NC State, V Tech, Duke, GT & UNC to dissolve the ACC? Those schools all have a financial incentive to do so if they all have spots in the SEC or BT. In that scenario UL, Wake, Pitt, Syracuse and BC get left behind. ND plus the others mentioned would be 9/14 teams, or 64%. I wonder if it would take 10 (71%)? If so, UL to the SEC as well.
The SEC adds FSU, Miami, Clemson, NC State, GT, V Tech, Kansas and 1 other (OK State? UL?) to get to 24.
The BT ends up with ND, Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, UNC, VA, Duke to get to 24.
I'd prefer the Big 10 ended up with Virginia Tech rather than GT. Virginia has a population of 8.5M, so it's no problem to have 2 schools from that state, particularly because they are located in different parts of the state. If the BT ended up with Stanford, Cal & Duke we would already have enough fb teams the locals won't support.
What's your justification as to why that isn't going to happen? Please, enlighten us....
Because they need competitors who will enable at least seven home dates for most, if not all conference schools, as well enough victories to qualify for bowl games. That’s why the SEC plays four OOC opponents annually, and the BiG and PAC play three.. Those OOC games are also a big financial boost for smaller conference foes, and the SEC and Big 10 won’t forgo that.
If the financials weren't the concern, we wouldn't be merging conferences. The SEC and B1G will 100% be only playing themselves in the years to come. The main thing they are looking to get away from is paying off small schools to prop up their athletic departments. That wasn't what the sport was until the money grew and teams only paid those smaller schools because they needed buffers in their schedule to match what other teams were doing. Those payments continued to go up really high.
With this new iteration, the B1G and SEC will agree not to play those non-conference teams. Why put out a bad product when all the teams competing for their title are playing only conference teams. It drives higher TV revenue when you're playing 12 B1G games than it does playing 9 B1G and 3 patsies. You literally add the opportunity to add 10-20% in annual TV revenue when people want to tune into those additional games.
Nope, they’re not going that direction, principally because they don’t have to. Television ratings and revenues will remain high with OOC opponents, and a minimum of seven home dates will ensure high internal revenues for conference members. This combination of schools is about creating heightened media scale (which translates to increased member revenues), but member schools aren’t interested in the sort of cut throat scheduling you’re suggesting, and that would hurt them financially. It’s not happening, and none of the AD’s involved would ever allow it to happen.
I will make sure to save this and tell you I told you so. The same nonsense was spouted when I said players will get paid. Money is the driving force for all decisions being made and sans that changing, you better believe they will go where maximizing their profits leads them.
That’s where your argument fails. You’re taking them away from a guaranteed revenue source, which is why it won’t happen.
I woud agree that $$ is the driving force, but (and while I rarely agree with our Purdue troll here)...OOC schedules will not go away anytime soon. Several reasons to keep them including tune ups and need for Ws to add up to six. Bowls make money in season ticket growth and attendant sales.
This one will be fascinating to watch. ND is better off independent for now for several reasons but once larger conferences become more insular scheduling might be tougher.
Playing the Big Four every year is not a plus, kids look at
the W/L record not who a team loses to. if kids looked
at our past schedules and thought as you suggest we would
be loaded with 5* recruits.
The interesting thing about Oregon and Washington is that USC and UCLA specifically wanted to isolate them both from a recruiting standpoint. They may have even tried to put similar language in the agreement.
Cable and streaming have become similar as they both offer similar programming. I’m betting the streaming services cost less because they don’t have a true brick and mortar cost. The reason they want market is because the B1G would be added to the base plans instead of being on the premium package. It means every house who subscribes to cable or streaming service is counted in the pay stream. So it won’t matter if 20 million people watch the games but they still pay.
