It all comes down to tonight. Who wins? Not who you want, but who you think will cut down the nets.
National Title Prediction
- Thread starter aajohn2000
- Start date
I picked Purdue. Hoping they lose, but feel they are a team of destiny. I think the difference will be ineffective perimeter scoring by UCONN.
UConn hitting a crazy low percentage of the open looks Purdue WILL give them tonight is the only way Purdue ends up winning this game, in my opinion.
And while I know the refs won't allow it to happen, UConn has the type of team that could force Edey out of his comfort zone, and could get him in foul trouble. Clingan and Johnson can finish through Edey, not sure anyone else in the country can say that, and they have two of them. Could cause Edey some issues since he's so used to contesting without fear of fouling.
I think tonight will look "different" to the refs. It'll be one of the few games where Edey looks in any way similar to the guys guarding him. Think about the amount of times in their other games where a ball was dumped down to another teams big, and they either didn't challenge Edey at all, or Edey easily blocked the shot. Clingan and Johnson get dump offs and go up at the rim, Edey might get dunked on tonight. And at a minimum, is much more likely to commit fouls.
All it will take is any sort of mild Edey foul trouble, and I'm not sure there'd be anything Purdue could do to overcome it.
And despite all this, even if the game is called the way Purdue games usually are, if UConn's 4 perimeter players play well, there's nothing Purdue can do to counter. Edey would have to score 50 probably.
I picked UConn...I'm gonna say 76-68. With a comfortable lead for most of the 2nd half.
Purdue needs too many things to go their way, and a couple of them will be out of their hands... They're obviously good enough to make it happen.
Keys that they can control...
1. Hitting 3s. Gonna have to hit a decent amount of them. I think this will be hard with guys like Castle and Newton guarding a couple of their key shooters. But they usually run really good sets that get guys enough decent looks.
2. Rebounding. Clingan and Johnson are going to occupy Edey, and make it more difficult for him to clean the boards, all the rest are gonna have to rebound well, I think.
3. Edey and Smith not committing fouls. The flip side of this is will they have to play even more soft defensively on ball screens to ensure they stay out of foul trouble?
Keys they can't control as much...
1. In every single game Purdue has played this year, they've shown that they will give decent/open looks off ball screen action. If UConn can hit shots off that, Purdue has no chance tonight.
2. Clingan getting in foul trouble or not... They can run stuff right at him, but he doesn't have to foul Edey, and the refs don't have to call it if he does. If Clingan doesn't get in foul trouble, and is able to play 25+ minutes, I think that severely hurts Purdue's chances tonight. He won't negate Edey, obviously, but if he's able to play that many minutes, that makes the central focus of Purdue's entire philosophy, on both ends of the floor, less effective than it normally is...for those minutes.
All in all, it just seems unlikely, to me, that enough stuff will fall Purdue's way...from their own doing, or from luck, for them to win.
Purdue needs too many things to go their way, and a couple of them will be out of their hands... They're obviously good enough to make it happen.
Keys that they can control...
1. Hitting 3s. Gonna have to hit a decent amount of them. I think this will be hard with guys like Castle and Newton guarding a couple of their key shooters. But they usually run really good sets that get guys enough decent looks.
2. Rebounding. Clingan and Johnson are going to occupy Edey, and make it more difficult for him to clean the boards, all the rest are gonna have to rebound well, I think.
3. Edey and Smith not committing fouls. The flip side of this is will they have to play even more soft defensively on ball screens to ensure they stay out of foul trouble?
Keys they can't control as much...
1. In every single game Purdue has played this year, they've shown that they will give decent/open looks off ball screen action. If UConn can hit shots off that, Purdue has no chance tonight.
2. Clingan getting in foul trouble or not... They can run stuff right at him, but he doesn't have to foul Edey, and the refs don't have to call it if he does. If Clingan doesn't get in foul trouble, and is able to play 25+ minutes, I think that severely hurts Purdue's chances tonight. He won't negate Edey, obviously, but if he's able to play that many minutes, that makes the central focus of Purdue's entire philosophy, on both ends of the floor, less effective than it normally is...for those minutes.
All in all, it just seems unlikely, to me, that enough stuff will fall Purdue's way...from their own doing, or from luck, for them to win.
i was pretty confident UCONN was gonna win it until i saw the sky darken just a few moments ago. Now I think things are aligned in their favor.
I believe we've already had our anomaly for the day.i was pretty confident UCONN was gonna win it until i saw the sky darken just a few moments ago. Now I think things are aligned in their favor.
It would take a once in a lifetime total eclipse in this area for Purdue to get a natty, so perhaps you might be right.i was pretty confident UCONN was gonna win it until i saw the sky darken just a few moments ago. Now I think things are aligned in their favor.
I have a sinking feeling they're going to be very different next year, but could end up being nearly as good. And still capable of deep NCAA runs the next couple years.
One thing Fatt P has shown is an ability to change to his players strengths. Smith, Loyer, TKR, Colvin, Catchings, Furst, Heide...they have really good pieces. I guess everyone will see how good all these guys are without the space that Edey has provided them. I think they're still going to be very good.
Comes down to the lowest common denominator. Guards. 3 fast grad student guards overwhelm 2 slow young guards.
Keeping with my year log predictions: Dinner is past but will sip a few good bourbons and a cigar on the balcony.
No he is out west, but he would be welcome
Two teams that are never, EVER, going to win a championship, are Gonzaga, and Purdue, smh.
The Big Ten is cursed. and is too 1 dimensional.
This uconn squad reminds me of the early 2000s elite teams that were so well rounded and deep.
The Big Ten is cursed. and is too 1 dimensional.
This uconn squad reminds me of the early 2000s elite teams that were so well rounded and deep.
Two teams wearing gold and black, each a "team of destiny" in their respective national championship games. Each team with the national player of the year. Each team loses. Turns out that a talented well-coached team can beat a team with one freak player.
Looks like i was not too far off on my prediction by three points. The refs let them play
