My own mock CFP projections

[IUNorth]

Power 4 conference winners

B10 - OSU over Oregon
ACC - SMU over Miami
SEC - Texas over Ole Miss
B12 - Iowa State over BYU

G5 top ranked - Boise State

Fairly obvious at large's

Oregon
Notre Dame
Miami (Obvious due to undefeated regular season)

That leaves the following teams for the remaining 4 spots.

Indiana (11-1, loss at OSU, no elite wins)
Penn State (11-1, loss home to OSU, no elite wins)
Georgia (Loss at Bama, and loss at Ole Miss, but win at Texas, over Tennessee)
Bama (Loss to Vandy, Loss to Tennessee, wins over Georgia, Mizzou, LSU)
Tennessee (Loss at Georgia, and at Arkansas, but win over Bama, no other huge wins)
BYU (Loss in B12 title game, no huge wins)
Ole Miss (3 losses, but win over Georgia, and played in SEC title game)
LSU (3 losses, but win over Ole Miss, and at Vandy)

Projections

1 seed OSU, playing winner of 8 Georgia v 9 Penn State

2 seed Texas, playing winner of 7 Miami v 10 Bama

3 seed SMU, playing winner of 6 Notre Dame v 11 Indiana

4 seed Iowa State, playing winner of 5 Oregon v 12 Boise State

I would actually love this draw. I do think IU's relative lack of SOS will hurt our seeding, if we do lose to OSU. But its hard to see us not making it. 1 loss BYU team might be biggest threat to bump a team like IU. But it would take that, AND a 2 or even 3 loss SEC type team to also leap frog IU. Don't think that happens.

 

[Pazhoosier85]

You lost me putting ND as a fairly obvious at large. They have a weak schedule outside of Texas A&M and the worse loss of all these schools to a mediocre MAC team. Honestly that loss should knock them out considering their weak schedule.

 

[jopajackson]

Power 4 conference winners

B10 - OSU over Oregon
ACC - SMU over Miami
SEC - Texas over Ole Miss
B12 - Iowa State over BYU

G5 top ranked - Boise State

Fairly obvious at large's

Oregon
Notre Dame
Miami (Obvious due to undefeated regular season)

That leaves the following teams for the remaining 4 spots.

Indiana (11-1, loss at OSU, no elite wins)
Penn State (11-1, loss home to OSU, no elite wins)
Georgia (Loss at Bama, and loss at Ole Miss, but win at Texas, over Tennessee)
Bama (Loss to Vandy, Loss to Tennessee, wins over Georgia, Mizzou, LSU)
Tennessee (Loss at Georgia, and at Arkansas, but win over Bama, no other huge wins)
BYU (Loss in B12 title game, no huge wins)
Ole Miss (3 losses, but win over Georgia, and played in SEC title game)
LSU (3 losses, but win over Ole Miss, and at Vandy)

Projections

1 seed OSU, playing winner of 8 Georgia v 9 Penn State

2 seed Texas, playing winner of 7 Miami v 10 Bama

3 seed SMU, playing winner of 6 Notre Dame v 11 Indiana

4 seed Iowa State, playing winner of 5 Oregon v 12 Boise State

I would actually love this draw. I do think IU's relative lack of SOS will hurt our seeding, if we do lose to OSU. But its hard to see us not making it. 1 loss BYU team might be biggest threat to bump a team like IU. But it would take that, AND a 2 or even 3 loss SEC type team to also leap frog IU. Don't think that happens.

I really hope your conference championships don’t play out that way. If Miami loses in the ACC championship game and BYU loses in the Big 12 championship game, I’m betting we’re left out of the playoff….

 

[IUNorth]

I really hope your conference championships don’t play out that way. If Miami loses in the ACC championship game and BYU loses in the Big 12 championship game, I’m betting we’re left out of the playoff….

It would take a lot of 2 loss teams to leap frog us, and BYU getting in over us, but it sure could happen.

And SMU looks more than a little better than Miami does, right now, in my opinion.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

You lost me putting ND as a fairly obvious at large. They have a weak schedule outside of Texas A&M and the worse loss of all these schools to a mediocre MAC team. Honestly that loss should knock them out considering their weak schedule.

ND is in unless they somehow lose to USC. That game is at USC so maybe they can rise up.

 

[IUNorth]

You lost me putting ND as a fairly obvious at large. They have a weak schedule outside of Texas A&M and the worse loss of all these schools to a mediocre MAC team. Honestly that loss should knock them out considering their weak schedule.

If they win out, ZERO chance they don't make it. Not saying you're wrong, and other teams wouldn't have a more deserving resume. But they aren't leaving an 11-1 Notre Dame team out...probably ever. They'll get hit by not having the chance to ever play their way in to a bye game in the playoffs...but they'll get every consideration imaginable, every year, to be an at large team.

 

[dr.jb]

I would LOVE to face off against ND

that said I haven't given up on putting o$u fans on suicide watch yet

 

[EvansvilleHoosier88]

Power 4 conference winners

B10 - OSU over Oregon
ACC - SMU over Miami
SEC - Texas over Ole Miss
B12 - Iowa State over BYU

G5 top ranked - Boise State

Fairly obvious at large's

Oregon
Notre Dame
Miami (Obvious due to undefeated regular season)

That leaves the following teams for the remaining 4 spots.

Indiana (11-1, loss at OSU, no elite wins)
Penn State (11-1, loss home to OSU, no elite wins)
Georgia (Loss at Bama, and loss at Ole Miss, but win at Texas, over Tennessee)
Bama (Loss to Vandy, Loss to Tennessee, wins over Georgia, Mizzou, LSU)
Tennessee (Loss at Georgia, and at Arkansas, but win over Bama, no other huge wins)
BYU (Loss in B12 title game, no huge wins)
Ole Miss (3 losses, but win over Georgia, and played in SEC title game)
LSU (3 losses, but win over Ole Miss, and at Vandy)

Projections

1 seed OSU, playing winner of 8 Georgia v 9 Penn State

2 seed Texas, playing winner of 7 Miami v 10 Bama

3 seed SMU, playing winner of 6 Notre Dame v 11 Indiana

4 seed Iowa State, playing winner of 5 Oregon v 12 Boise State

I would actually love this draw. I do think IU's relative lack of SOS will hurt our seeding, if we do lose to OSU. But its hard to see us not making it. 1 loss BYU team might be biggest threat to bump a team like IU. But it would take that, AND a 2 or even 3 loss SEC type team to also leap frog IU. Don't think that happens.

While I don’t love it, I think this is probably a reasonable outlook. I would be happy if these are the teams we face. Plus, I’m sure we could make this feel like far less of a home game for ND in this circumstance.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

It would take a lot of 2 loss teams to leap frog us, and BYU getting in over us, but it sure could happen.

And SMU looks more than a little better than Miami does, right now, in my opinion.

I think a one loss ISU winning the Big 12 CG is in over us; however, it only hurts us if a one-loss BYU is also in over us (if we lose at OSU). I don't think that happens if we lose a close one at OSU. If OSU beats us soundly........

I'm more concerned about SMU beating Miami, which I agree looks likely. I'm afraid a one-loss Miami might also be in over us.

Also, it does not look like PSU will lose another game. I'm concerned a one-loss PSU gets in over a one-loss Indiana. If we lose to OSU, will 4 BT teams make the playoff?

Also, I think a minimum of 4 SEC teams make the playoff. Maybe 5?? Tenn still has to play at GA, so TENN probably ends up with 2 losses. TX has to play at A & M so there's a 50% chance TX will end up with 2 losses. It's possible that GA is the only SEC team with one loss, and that A & M; TENN, LSU, TX; Bama; Ole Miss; and MO all end up with 2 losses. That's 8 SEC teams that look pretty good v. 4 for the BT. That could mean 5 SEC and 3 BT teams in the playoffs.

My projected top 13 are:

BYU; GA; TENN; LSU; TX; ORE; OSU; PSU; IU; ND; SMU; Miami; Boise St. Now, if IU losses to OSU, who do you think gets left out? We would already be leaving out 2 loss Bama; Ole Miss; A&M; and Missouri.

 

[Pazhoosier85]

While I don’t love it, I think this is probably a reasonable outlook. I would be happy if these are the teams we face. Plus, I’m sure we could make this feel like far less of a home game for ND in this circumstance.

This game would make the reversible jackets fans heads explode.

 

[Bowlmania]

IU controls its own destiny. We can win these final three games, including the game in Columbus. Win 3 and we're in!!

Go Hoosiers!

 

[EvansvilleHoosier88]

This game would make the reversible jackets fans heads explode.

That’s my favorite aspect about this… brother and dad are both in this boat, and I for one hope to chide them endlessly. I think IU will win out for them, but I’m less certain about my brother. Plus, let’s solidify our standing in the state by blowing the doors off the Irish on the largest stage!

 

[mushroomgod_1]

I think a one loss ISU winning the Big 12 CG is in over us; however, it only hurts us if a one-loss BYU is also in over us (if we lose at OSU). I don't think that happens if we lose a close one at OSU. If OSU beats us soundly........

I'm more concerned about SMU beating Miami, which I agree looks likely. I'm afraid a one-loss Miami might also be in over us.

Also, it does not look like PSU will lose another game. I'm concerned a one-loss PSU gets in over a one-loss Indiana. If we lose to OSU, will 4 BT teams make the playoff?

Also, I think a minimum of 4 SEC teams make the playoff. Maybe 5?? Tenn still has to play at GA, so TENN probably ends up with 2 losses. TX has to play at A & M so there's a 50% chance TX will end up with 2 losses. It's possible that GA is the only SEC team with one loss, and that A & M; TENN, LSU, TX; Bama; Ole Miss; and MO all end up with 2 losses. That's 8 SEC teams that look pretty good v. 4 for the BT. That could mean 5 SEC and 3 BT teams in the playoffs.

My projected top 13 are:

BYU; GA; TENN; LSU; TX; ORE; OSU; PSU; IU; ND; SMU; Miami; Boise St. Now, if IU losses to OSU, who do you think gets left out? We would already be leaving out 2 loss Bama; Ole Miss; A&M; and Missouri.

So.....edit on this. Bama plays at LSU Saturday so one of those two will have 3 losses and be out of consideration. I will say, however, that the winner (probably LSU) will be attractive to the playoff committee. If Bama wins they will have beaten GA; Missouri; LSU; OK; and Auburn (assuming they win those last 2). with losses to Vandy & TENN. They'd be in, imo

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

I'll play. Here's how I see it:

1 - O$U
2 - GA
3 - Miami
4 - BYU
5 - Oregon
6 - TX
7 - PSU
8 - IU
9 - ND
10 - Bama
11 - Boise St
12 - SMU

So much can change from week to week, but it was a fun exercise.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

IU controls its own destiny. We can win these final three games, including the game in Columbus. Win 3 and we're in!!

Go Hoosiers!

Hell, if we beat OSU we ought to be #1, having beaten OSU at OSU while Oregon won at home by 1 point. Unfortunately, they won't let you jump 7 spaces.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

I'll play. Here's how I see it:

1 - O$U
2 - GA
3 - Miami
4 - BYU
5 - Oregon
6 - TX
7 - PSU
8 - IU
9 - ND
10 - Bama
11 - Boise St
12 - SMU

So much can change from week to week, but it was a fun exercise.

My only quibble is I think SMU is out with a 2nd loss. They'll have SEC teams with 2 losses to pick from. While SMU would have no bad losses (BYU & Miami), their best wins would be Pitt & UL, and they'd have two "bad" wins--29-24 over Nevada & 28-27 over Duke in OT.

 

[jopajackson]

It would take a lot of 2 loss teams to leap frog us, and BYU getting in over us, but it sure could happen.

And SMU looks more than a little better than Miami does, right now, in my opinion.

I would be mostly worried about Tenn. Beating Alabama and having 2 losses with one being to Georgia is a pretty strong resume.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

I would be mostly worried about Tenn. Beating Alabama and having 2 losses with one being to Georgia is a pretty strong resume.

Losing at Arkansas is a stinker of a loss though.

 

[13thman]

If it's a choice between us and PSU at 11-1, the determining factor could be the USC/UCLA game.

 

[IUNorth]

I would be mostly worried about Tenn. Beating Alabama and having 2 losses with one being to Georgia is a pretty strong resume.

Assuming IU finishes 11-1...

I think it would take a handful of unlikely scenarios to play out for IU to get left out.

1. Someone other than Georgia or Texas winning SEC title game
2. Someone other than Miami winning ACC title game
3. Someone other than BYU winning B12 title game
4. Notre Dame winning out
5. SEC having 3 at large candidates with only 2 losses
6. Penn State winning out

If enough of the above things happen, IU's relatively weak schedule could doom them.

 

[Kelly_32]

I think a one loss ISU winning the Big 12 CG is in over us; however, it only hurts us if a one-loss BYU is also in over us (if we lose at OSU). I don't think that happens if we lose a close one at OSU. If OSU beats us soundly........

I'm more concerned about SMU beating Miami, which I agree looks likely. I'm afraid a one-loss Miami might also be in over us.

Also, it does not look like PSU will lose another game. I'm concerned a one-loss PSU gets in over a one-loss Indiana. If we lose to OSU, will 4 BT teams make the playoff?

Also, I think a minimum of 4 SEC teams make the playoff. Maybe 5?? Tenn still has to play at GA, so TENN probably ends up with 2 losses. TX has to play at A & M so there's a 50% chance TX will end up with 2 losses. It's possible that GA is the only SEC team with one loss, and that A & M; TENN, LSU, TX; Bama; Ole Miss; and MO all end up with 2 losses. That's 8 SEC teams that look pretty good v. 4 for the BT. That could mean 5 SEC and 3 BT teams in the playoffs.

My projected top 13 are:

BYU; GA; TENN; LSU; TX; ORE; OSU; PSU; IU; ND; SMU; Miami; Boise St. Now, if IU losses to OSU, who do you think gets left out? We would already be leaving out 2 loss Bama; Ole Miss; A&M; and Missouri.

An 11-1 ACC school with no ranked wins is not getting in over an 11-1 B1G school with no ranked wins.

 

[IUNorth]

An 11-1 ACC school with no ranked wins is not getting in over an 11-1 B1G school with no ranked wins.

Would agree with this. I do think a 12-1 Miami team would though, if they ran the table in the regular season, and lost in the conference championship game.

But if Pitt, as an example, finishes 11-1 and misses the ACC title tame, they aren't getting in over 11-1 IU or Penn State teams.

 

[YOTHN]

Since the summer, I have believed that OSU was the team to beat. As of today, I still think on a neutral field, OSU would be able to beat any SEC team (more times than not), as well as beat Oregon, who eek'd out a win vs OSU on the road in Oregon.

Therefore, IMO I think OSU is the mountain top we are needing to overcome. Heck, even ESPN has OSU with the highest odds to win the title, still, even with their loss. Based on what I've seen from IU, if we played a 5-game series vs OSU, I genuinely believe IU wins more games than OSU. Not because we have more pro potential players than OSU, but I think we are incredibly more talented than people give us credit for and more importantly, what sets IU apart is they're so fundamentally sound. Every position has players not just consistently making the right plays but using the type of technique that negates the gap in talent. Sound technique can close talent gaps and when an entire team is doing that, the results might seem surprising, but it shouldn't be.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

While I don’t love it, I think this is probably a reasonable outlook. I would be happy if these are the teams we face. Plus, I’m sure we could make this feel like far less of a home game for ND in this circumstance.

The #9, 10, 11 and 12 seeds all play first round games on the road at the home stadium of the higher seed and it’s treated just like a regular season game. The lower seed gets their usual allotment of visitor tickets and the home team gets all the rest. So, if IU were to play at ND, we get 2,000 tickets and the remaining 78,000 are offered up to ND season ticket holders. That’s my understanding of it.

 

[Bowlmania]

Hell, if we beat OSU we ought to be #1, having beaten OSU at OSU while Oregon won at home by 1 point. Unfortunately, they won't let you jump 7 spaces.

The jump may not be seven spaces at that point. A lot can happen in a couple of weeks. Also, we need to see where the CFP committee places us in the initial rankings tomorrow night.

 

[YOTHN]

The jump may not be seven spaces at that point. A lot can happen in a couple of weeks. Also, we need to see where the CFP committee places us in the initial rankings tomorrow night.

Assuming IU were to beat OSU for the first time since 1987, it honestly doesn't matter if IU is 1 or 2. We'd play Oregon in the B1G title game as undefeated #1 and #2 nationally ranked teams in the country. The entire nation would tune in and the B1G would be the premier conference in college football...IU being one of those leading the way in this new environment, NOT UM or OSU. Ha The winner would get the #1 overall seed and the loser would get the 5 seed, home game vs #12.

Assuming IU wins at home vs UM in 5 days, that OSU game is going down as the biggest game we've ever had.....by far.

 

[Pazhoosier85]

Assuming IU were to beat OSU for the first time since 1987, it honestly doesn't matter if IU is 1 or 2. We'd play Oregon in the B1G title game as undefeated #1 and #2 nationally ranked teams in the country. The entire nation would tune in and the B1G would be the premier conference in college football...IU being one of those leading the way in this new environment, NOT UM or OSU. Ha The winner would get the #1 overall seed and the loser would get the 5 seed, home game vs #12.

Assuming IU wins at home vs UM in 5 days, that OSU game is going down as the biggest game we've ever had.....by far.

That would be a de facto home game for IU as well. A sea of red in Lucas Oil would be a sight to see That is a long trek for Oregon fans. Anyway let's win the next 3.

 

[jopajackson]

Assuming IU finishes 11-1...

I think it would take a handful of unlikely scenarios to play out for IU to get left out.

1. Someone other than Georgia or Texas winning SEC title game
2. Someone other than Miami winning ACC title game
3. Someone other than BYU winning B12 title game
4. Notre Dame winning out
5. SEC having 3 at large candidates with only 2 losses
6. Penn State winning out

If enough of the above things happen, IU's relatively weak schedule could doom them.

I think 4 and 6 will definitely happen. It would take a major upset for them not to. I think SMU looks prime to upset Miami. I think Georgia and Texas will play for the championship. Tennessee will end the season with 1 loss and a win over Alabama and either Alabama or LSU will end the season with 2 losses. Ole Miss beating Georgia this weekend would be very bad for IU.

There are so many possibilities, but if we lose to OSU and finish at 11-1 with 0 wins over ranked teams things would really need to fall our way. Primarily, Miami and BYU winning their conference championship games.

 

[IUNorth]

I think 4 and 6 will definitely happen. It would take a major upset for them not to. I think SMU looks prime to upset Miami. I think Georgia and Texas will play for the championship. Tennessee will end the season with 1 loss and a win over Alabama and either Alabama or LSU will end the season with 2 losses. Ole Miss beating Georgia this weekend would be very bad for IU.

There are so many possibilities, but if we lose to OSU and finish at 11-1 with 0 wins over ranked teams things would really need to fall our way. Primarily, Miami and BYU winning their conference championship games.

Could be the rare occasion where it will actually matter what IU looks like against OSU. If they battle them all game and come up short, one would think that would bode well for how the committee would view a 1 loss IU team. Especially if they think Michigan and Purdue.

 

[jopajackson]

Could be the rare occasion where it will actually matter what IU looks like against OSU. If they battle them all game and come up short, one would think that would bode well for how the committee would view a 1 loss IU team. Especially if they think Michigan and Purdue.

I think how well we compete in that game assuming that we do lose and finish 11-1 will play a huge factor in the end. If we haven’t beat a ranked team and Ohio St beats us by 3 touchdowns were in trouble.

 

[bum4iu2]

Nebraska was ranked #25 when IU played them. How is that not a ranked win.

 

[Sope Creek]

I would be mostly worried about Tenn. Beating Alabama and having 2 losses with one being to Georgia is a pretty strong resume.

1-71. Tennesee's record against top 5 opponents. Tied with IU. Tennessee doesn't worry me. They haven't beaten anybody.

 

[Sope Creek]

Nebraska was ranked #25 when IU played them. How is that not a ranked win.

I think they were talking about currently ranked.

 

[Sope Creek]

I think how well we compete in that game assuming that we do lose and finish 11-1 will play a huge factor in the end. If we haven’t beat a ranked team and Ohio St beats us by 3 touchdowns were in trouble.

3 touchdowns? Then we're in trouble.

 

[dbmhoosier]

I think how well we compete in that game assuming that we do lose and finish 11-1 will play a huge factor in the end. If we haven’t beat a ranked team and Ohio St beats us by 3 touchdowns were in trouble.

 

[jopajackson]

Ole Miss losing may save us. If Minnesota can beat Penn St we’re really looking good.

 

[OpenWheels]

Michigan putting 50 (to 6 ) on Northwestern isn't going to help our SOS look. Crushing them lol.

 

[jopajackson]

Michigan putting 50 (to 6 ) on Northwestern isn't going to help our SOS look. Crushing them lol.

We beat Michigan though so it really doesn’t matter.

 

[SRIV94]

Michigan putting 50 (to 6 ) on Northwestern isn't going to help our SOS look. Crushing them lol.

Meh—we played both and beat both. It was going to be a wash one way or the other.

 

[OpenWheels]

Ole Miss losing may save us. If Minnesota can beat Penn St we’re really looking good.

Minny always disappoints. Not over but not looking great. PSU up one, in FG range. 2 minutes...