Lunardi's Bracketology has IU almost in

[speroni]

I'm laughing a bit at how confusing the wording is getting, my comment then yours. I think we are in general agreement.

What I am trying to point out, but maybe wasn't worded very clearly: Take, for instance, Michigan. Michigan is a good team. They know they are a good team, and that means they know how they have to play to win versus anybody. If they play how they know they need to play, they will be in the ball game at least. Obviously it doesn't always work out, but generally, if a good team plays well and up to their standards, they often win, and often that id a rather sizeable margin.

Indiana, on the other hand, has shown that even in games they win, even when at home, even against lower level teams, they have not come out and shown that they can win convincingly. There are a couple of examples, but those were early enough in the season that I could easily counter that the other team just hadn't found themselves yet, or in a couple cases are simply too far down the ranking list to even matter (Chicago st.).
Therefore, here at this late season stage, we find that Indiana playing at their best is really no better than a 4 point lead versus any top 75 team at any given point in the game. It is a matter of simple mental weakness. And that is indeed the problem because a 4 point lead is very easy to erase. In fact IU generally gives away any lead it has. They would rather ride with the peloton than surge ahead and stay there. They can't do it, or at least they have not done it in 2019.
Going into road games, that puts the outcome up in the air no matter who the opponent is, and if that isn't bad enough, it also is the case that Indiana has not ahown great execution at the end of games either.

Indiana has to have literally gotten better this past week in order to overcome the odds against at Illinois. We won't know that until the tip, but at this late stage, it seems less likely that they have actually improved vs. simply won a couple of close home games on some lucky breaks.

I think this team is an enigma. It's kind of been a tale of three seasons: Season 1, where they often fell behind early, but usually rallied to win the game - and sometimes convincingly. See Marquette and a bunch of patsies for details (record of 12-2). Season 2, where they completely fell apart (record 1-10). And season 3, where they showed effort and heart with four VERY close games (record 2-2). You state that we won the last couple of games on some lucky breaks, but one could just as easily have said that we lost the previous two on some unlucky breaks.

The question to me is... will season 3 continue? So far, we've faced four teams in season 3 that are headed to the NCAA tourney. We played them all evenly and split the games, beating two top 20 teams. Illinois is not of the caliber of those four teams. They are 1-3 in their last four games, including losing at home to Penn State and barely beating NW in their last game (also at the other Assembly Hall). IF, and it's a big IF, IU continues to play as it has played in season 3... one may see an IU win on Thursday. Convincingly.

 

[raar2]

If we got to the Big Ten finals we would be a lock. 19 wins would make us a lock.

More than the count of wins, to get to the final we'd have to have to beaten another 2 - 3 quad 1 teams.

 

[IU40IU]

I agree they are hot.

they've lost 3 of their last 4 games. they are "hot"? i would say they have cooled

 

[iubud]

Just to be clear, I'm not making any crazy predictions. In fact I'll be a bit surprised if we win at Illinois, let alone win both games this week. I'm just trying to be positive for a few days and outline the post season possibilities. It's coach's job to have the team ready. My job is to do goofy fan stuff in March... I've got my part covered

I expect to win and to play with the effort we have the last 4 games. I will be disappointed if we play at less than that level of effort. I expect a close game. We need to avoid playing to their level and give the effort we would have against a top 10 program

 

[MG80]

I do not have a good feeling about Thursday but I hope I am wrong.

I have a feeling that Morgan is again going to play like an animal and get this one for us. He probably has more motivation than anyone given it’s his last shot at the big stage.