He has IU as the 5th team out right now, which is pretty amazing for a 15-14 record to be so close. Here's the link http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Lunardi's Bracketology has IU almost in
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Unless they win out and get to B1G finals. That is asking a lot. I’m concerned about Thursday. Don’t overlook Illinois. They will give us all we can handle.
I think Illinois gets us as they've won 6 of their last 10 and play intense defense that turns you over.
But the consensus seems to be we need to win out and win 1 in the BTT.
Alabama was a 9 seed last year with 15 losses and I don't think they had as many good wins as we do right now.
Plus this is the first season using the net which doesn't give a FF about conference record.
Still you could have a lot of upsets in conference tourney's so winning 2 in the BTT would be the only lock to get in (based on interwebs bracketologists).
That Illinois game is a trap.
Got a decent chance if IU beats UI and Rutgers and one in the BTT. Doubt pretty much goes away if they get to the final of the BTT - and of course, there is doubt at all if IU wins the BTT. That would be very nice considering that IU has never won it, and awesome given the bad stretch this team had.
The threee games we should have won just killed us. Even win two of those and we are in I think. Instead a crappy Minnesota team with no real great wins will get in instead.
There will be a lot of scenarios calculated over the next 2 weeks. I would be interested in where we are if we win our next 2 games. I know a lot would depend on what the last 4 out and the last 4 in do this week.
What if we are the first team out heading into the BTT? If we play the first round game, I assume we would be expected to win that game. That game would only raise our win total. The next round might get us in if there are not a lot of upsets in the automatic bids.
I believe with our resume, 19-15 winning 7 out of our last 8 would get us in. Our quad 1 wins will carry more weight than our record. It is more likely we will go to the NIT, but at least we are in the conversation after I thought the team was out of it prior to Wisconsin.
What if we are the first team out heading into the BTT? If we play the first round game, I assume we would be expected to win that game. That game would only raise our win total. The next round might get us in if there are not a lot of upsets in the automatic bids.
I believe with our resume, 19-15 winning 7 out of our last 8 would get us in. Our quad 1 wins will carry more weight than our record. It is more likely we will go to the NIT, but at least we are in the conversation after I thought the team was out of it prior to Wisconsin.
Was listening to the Fox college basketball preview show on the radio prior to the MSU game. Don’t know who the guys were but they were big college hoops nerds. They both agreed that IU would beat State. Interestingly, one of them also said he was picking IU to win the conference tourney, saying he thought we were the most talented team on the league (W MSU being nicked up).
If IU wins this week and Minny loses to Purdue and Maryland, IU could face Minnesota in a possible play in game in the 8 vs 9 game on Thursday. I think the Bubble might need to stay soft as well, but it's got potential.
Someone had a post about all the teams that could finish 8-12. We would lose a tiebreaker to enough of them to play the first day. In our case, the extra game against a lower team would be a good thing. We have the good wins. We just don't have enough overall wins.
I just want to play in post season. We are playing much better and might find success in the NIT, but being part of the NCAA tournament would be a better outcome if we could win a game.
I was thinking the team might benefit more from the NIT, but a friend pointed out that with how long we've been out of the NCAA he thinks it's more important to get back there and rethinking it, I agree.
I agree. If our goal of every year is to play in the NCAA, then the experience of even one game is better than a couple more home and away games. I believe the neutral court NCAA tournament offers a better tournament environment than the NIT. Even losing in the first round will teach the returning players how to prepare for future NCAA tournaments.
I didn't give the Colts a chance of the playoffs after starting 1-5. IU has a better chance than the Colts did. The Colts even won a first round game.
If we got to the Big Ten finals we would be a lock. 19 wins would make us a lock. 18 wins likely gets us in with the amount of quadrant one wins we have. (While also having zero quadrant 3/4 losses). Look at Oklahoma and Vanderbilt in the last few years, both have extremely similar resumes to IU and made it in. This year is the weakest the bubble has been in a while as well.
I think I've looked at all of the different tie-breakers, and if IU avoids playing on Wednesday it'll most likely be playing the Gophers in either the 8 v 9 or 7 v 10 game. To avoid playing on Wednesday its a given that IU has to win both of it's games, then avoid this scenario...
OSU loses both games
Minn wins at least one game
Rutgers and Illinois beat Penn St.
**Edit... Actually even this would put us in a 10 vs 7 game vs Minny... my bad. So if IU wins both, they totally avoid Wednesday, with only one scenario in which they don't play the Gophers.
The one scenario where IU begins play on Thursday against someone other than Minnesota, it would face OSU in the 8 v 9 game. This happens if everything listed above happens except Penn St. beats Illinois in Happy Valley at high noon on Sunday.
If IU can beat Illinois, Sunday will be a pretty interesting way to close out the regular season schedule.
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Beat IL this week, then we have a chance (assuming we can get 1-2 wins in the BTT). Lose at IL, then we'll have to fight just to qualify for NIT. Razor thin margin. Not many teams can even talk about tourney possibilities after losing 11 of 12. Strange season.
If we win out we can start talking about the tournament. But unless we probably get to semi finals I don't see us making it..
Probably right, but I think our best chance is for Minnesota to lose to Purdue and at Ohio State, then we beat them next Thursday in the 8/9 game. If that happens, I think IU could take their spot in the NCAA Tourn. even with a loss on Friday.
I probably wouldn't feel it's above 50/50 unless we play on Saturday though. All conversations are out the window if we lose one of the next two... obviously.
That said, I'll be pulling for the Gophers to beat PU and just let the chips fall where they may
Maybe because IU has only won 2 road games all season?
People need to stop making crazy predictions and just watch that game. IU loses and they will be fighting for an NIT bid against Rutgers in Morgan's last home game.
IU hasn't played like a dominant aggressor since the Louisville game, and perhaps even before that. And that was at home.
There is a reason teams lose a lot of games and this team still has to prove they can win a game convincingly, in any environment.
I would tell them to play like there is no tomorrow or else there won't be.
There is a reason teams lose a lot of games and this team still has to prove they can win a game convincingly, in any environment.
I would tell them to play like there is no tomorrow or else there won't be.
Just to be clear, I'm not making any crazy predictions. In fact I'll be a bit surprised if we win at Illinois, let alone win both games this week. I'm just trying to be positive for a few days and outline the post season possibilities. It's coach's job to have the team ready. My job is to do goofy fan stuff in March... I've got my part covered
The only thing we can control is our play. There are too many variables out of your control in this situation. For example, if some team comes out of nowhere to win a Conference Tournament you may not get in if they take two teams from that Conference. We need to win our last two regular season games and two games in Conference Tournament to have a shot. Those losses to Nebraska, Rutgers, Northwestern, and perhaps Ohio State, are real negatives on our resume.
Actually they're not. I know it's crazy but Rutgers is ranked around 68th in KenPom.
UCLA, which is around 4th or 5th in the Pac12 is around 98th.
We have no bad losses in the metrics eyes even though we know we would have lost to the Bedford College Center in January.
They don't have to prove they can win convincingly in any environment. They need to prove they can win in any environment. And the game at MSU shows that they CAN win in any environment.
But don't read more into this... I'm not saying they WILL win in any environment, just that they can. And it's not necessary to do it convincingly.
Good thing you added that disclaimer otherwise fpeaugh would probably consider this a guarantee.
I'm laughing a bit at how confusing the wording is getting, my comment then yours. I think we are in general agreement.
What I am trying to point out, but maybe wasn't worded very clearly: Take, for instance, Michigan. Michigan is a good team. They know they are a good team, and that means they know how they have to play to win versus anybody. If they play how they know they need to play, they will be in the ball game at least. Obviously it doesn't always work out, but generally, if a good team plays well and up to their standards, they often win, and often that id a rather sizeable margin.
Indiana, on the other hand, has shown that even in games they win, even when at home, even against lower level teams, they have not come out and shown that they can win convincingly. There are a couple of examples, but those were early enough in the season that I could easily counter that the other team just hadn't found themselves yet, or in a couple cases are simply too far down the ranking list to even matter (Chicago st.).
Therefore, here at this late season stage, we find that Indiana playing at their best is really no better than a 4 point lead versus any top 75 team at any given point in the game. It is a matter of simple mental weakness. And that is indeed the problem because a 4 point lead is very easy to erase. In fact IU generally gives away any lead it has. They would rather ride with the peloton than surge ahead and stay there. They can't do it, or at least they have not done it in 2019.
Going into road games, that puts the outcome up in the air no matter who the opponent is, and if that isn't bad enough, it also is the case that Indiana has not ahown great execution at the end of games either.
Indiana has to have literally gotten better this past week in order to overcome the odds against at Illinois. We won't know that until the tip, but at this late stage, it seems less likely that they have actually improved vs. simply won a couple of close home games on some lucky breaks.
Dont be so pessimistic dude!!!!!
If we are lucky we might make the NIT which offers some substantial benefits to this team over making the NCAA tourney!!!!!
Go Archie’s Hoosier’s!!!!!
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