This is for the members of the Board who follow Lichtman's predictions and might be curious as to where he believes the race is at present. He's holding off till after the DNC because a couple of his undecided keys are dependant on whether or not Chicago and the DNC in 2024 resemble Chicago 1968. The buzzphrase coming out of 1968 was "Beat the Press and Mace the Nation" with millions on the streets thruout LBJ's Administration, including thousands of protestors being clubbed by Chicago police every night in prime time for a week...
There are currently four keys Lichtman rates as shaky/undecided with 2 leaning Red and two leaning Blue. The two leaning Red involve foreign policy success and failure and only a Gaza ceasefire or massive Ukraine victory would salvage the Foreign Policy success key for Dems. But the opposition needs six keys, so one of the 2 Blue leans would need to reverse as well. Civil unrest seems unlikely, and the other is a significant 3rd party. That means RFK would have to stabilize at 10% or more in polling compilations and my guess is we'll see his numbers continue to drop. So that's why Lichtman says a lot would have to go wrong for the Dems to be predicted (by his keys) to lose.
It's important to remember that this is Lichtman's model and his keys. People who claim they are "subjective" or try to provide their own analysis are free to develop their own model and do so. But if the discusion is about his keys, it has to be applied to his definition and the parameters he established after he went back as far as 1860 and determined the keys that he found to be in play in every US election. Individual interpretations of a key are fine when people want to use their own criteria to prognosticate future results. But if you're going to use his model and judge it's effectiveness you have to do so using his definitions, which he's been using since 1982 the year he made his first prediction and said Reagan would win in 1984.
Here is his current read on the keys,and how he defines them. Right now I'd say he's on the verge of predicting Harris to win, but again he's holding off till he sees how things shake out in Chicago at the end of August. For the Dems to be predicted to lose there would have to be an earth shattering development. I agree with Lichtman that's technically possible, but highly unlikely...
For anyone wondering why Biden endorsed Harris, and did everything he could to avoid an open,divisive primary just know that Biden knows Lichtman and is well aware of the keys.If the Dems were facing internal strife and a divisive primary in Chicago, the Pubs would have 6 keys, instead of the 5 they currently have or lead on.
There are currently four keys Lichtman rates as shaky/undecided with 2 leaning Red and two leaning Blue. The two leaning Red involve foreign policy success and failure and only a Gaza ceasefire or massive Ukraine victory would salvage the Foreign Policy success key for Dems. But the opposition needs six keys, so one of the 2 Blue leans would need to reverse as well. Civil unrest seems unlikely, and the other is a significant 3rd party. That means RFK would have to stabilize at 10% or more in polling compilations and my guess is we'll see his numbers continue to drop. So that's why Lichtman says a lot would have to go wrong for the Dems to be predicted (by his keys) to lose.
It's important to remember that this is Lichtman's model and his keys. People who claim they are "subjective" or try to provide their own analysis are free to develop their own model and do so. But if the discusion is about his keys, it has to be applied to his definition and the parameters he established after he went back as far as 1860 and determined the keys that he found to be in play in every US election. Individual interpretations of a key are fine when people want to use their own criteria to prognosticate future results. But if you're going to use his model and judge it's effectiveness you have to do so using his definitions, which he's been using since 1982 the year he made his first prediction and said Reagan would win in 1984.
Here is his current read on the keys,and how he defines them. Right now I'd say he's on the verge of predicting Harris to win, but again he's holding off till he sees how things shake out in Chicago at the end of August. For the Dems to be predicted to lose there would have to be an earth shattering development. I agree with Lichtman that's technically possible, but highly unlikely...
For anyone wondering why Biden endorsed Harris, and did everything he could to avoid an open,divisive primary just know that Biden knows Lichtman and is well aware of the keys.If the Dems were facing internal strife and a divisive primary in Chicago, the Pubs would have 6 keys, instead of the 5 they currently have or lead on.
