Lets talk OSU/ND

[mushroomgod_1]

Some notes/comments I'll throw out about the NC game---

--OSU is now almost a 10 point favorite-OSU appears to be the more talented team. If they play to their potential, they are likely to win.

--The pressure is on OSU--ND is playing with house $$. If ND keeps it close, OSU is capable of chocking. I thought their 1st half errors v. TX caused them to lose their confidence.....it wasn't a TN or Oregon rout. Also, it seems like Day has more pressure on his back, and that can filter down to the team.

--ND has some injuries-2/3 of the way through their season, OSU lost their excellent starting center (Stephenson??). They seem to have adjusted to that situation. DE JT Tuimoloau is a stud who tweaked his ankle v. TX, but played hurt in the 2nd half. If he's not 100% there's a drop-off at that position. ND has lost stud DT Rylie Mills, and lost their starting LOT, Anthonie Knapp, this week. However, they will have guards Charles Jaquish and Rocco Spindler back v. OSU. WR Beaux Collins is said to be questionable.

--Both teams have seemed tremendously motivated and focused during the playoffs.

--Howard v. Leonard--It "feels" like Leonard is a great leader and an extremely physical guy. ND's path to victory would seem to impose their will by being more physical than OSU. How does OSU respond to that challenge? I will also say that Leonard's ability to improvise v. PSU was impressive. Howard doesn't seem as physically tough and certainly seemed to lose his confidence in that Michigan game.....but he sure came through against TX in the tough situations. Also, I saw these stats about him: on 4th down passing situations this year, he's 10/13 for 171 yds and 2 TDs; also, when OSU has been behind this year he's 62/83 for 770 yds.

--I can't take too much from their common games v. IU and PSU. IU stayed with both absent big plays, but OSU's DL was perhaps more dominant? I'll also give OSU a slight edge in their game v. PSU...it was at PSU, and PSU probably should have beaten ND....

--ND's TO margin on the year is #1 nationally....OSU's is #44. Also, OSU's penalties v. TX were alarming.

--ND's DBs are at least as good as those of TX, and TX was able to take Smith out of the game and otherwise eliminate long passing plays. TX gave ND the blueprint....force OSU to be patient. It will be critical for OSU for Henderson & Judkins to have success running the ball......but OSU will also need to be creative in finding ways to get Smith involved.

--I thought the "home" crowd (probably 65% TX, 35% OSU) really helped TX, and more particularly probably caused some of their motion penalties. I would expect the crowd to be no worse than 55% OSU in Atlanta.

Thoughts???

 

[Army88]

IU lost to both ND and OSU, notably as a result of a few huge plays:
ND- interception at goalie and 98 yard run.
OSU- fumbled punt snap and long punt return.
OSU’s scoop and TD run late in the game secured their win against Texas.
OSU clearly outplayed Tennessee and Oregon, with OSU’s big plays highlighting both of these games.
It seemed to me that ND won their other 2 playoff games (GA and Penn state) on the legs of Leonard and opportunistic defense.
IMO, if OSU can muster big plays, they win. If ND can prevent big plays from OSU AND Leonard can eke out magical first downs, ND wins.

 

[vesuvius13]

This could be a slobber knocker of a game with the fronts both defenses have. We will see how much the ND defense follows the game strategy Texas used. Can the OSU offense get untracked or will ND control it like Texas did? ND's offense will have a tough time moving the ball against OSU defense.

 

[ElMeson]

Some notes/comments I'll throw out about the NC game---

--OSU is now almost a 10 point favorite-OSU appears to be the more talented team. If they play to their potential, they are likely to win.

--The pressure is on OSU--ND is playing with house $$. If ND keeps it close, OSU is capable of chocking. I thought their 1st half errors v. TX caused them to lose their confidence.....it wasn't a TN or Oregon rout. Also, it seems like Day has more pressure on his back, and that can filter down to the team.

--ND has some injuries-2/3 of the way through their season, OSU lost their excellent starting center (Stephenson??). They seem to have adjusted to that situation. DE JT Tuimoloau is a stud who tweaked his ankle v. TX, but played hurt in the 2nd half. If he's not 100% there's a drop-off at that position. ND has lost stud DT Rylie Mills, and lost their starting LOT, Anthonie Knapp, this week. However, they will have guards Charles Jaquish and Rocco Spindler back v. OSU. WR Beaux Collins is said to be questionable.

--Both teams have seemed tremendously motivated and focused during the playoffs.

--Howard v. Leonard--It "feels" like Leonard is a great leader and an extremely physical guy. ND's path to victory would seem to impose their will by being more physical than OSU. How does OSU respond to that challenge? I will also say that Leonard's ability to improvise v. PSU was impressive. Howard doesn't seem as physically tough and certainly seemed to lose his confidence in that Michigan game.....but he sure came through against TX in the tough situations. Also, I saw these stats about him: on 4th down passing situations this year, he's 10/13 for 171 yds and 2 TDs; also, when OSU has been behind this year he's 62/83 for 770 yds.

--I can't take too much from their common games v. IU and PSU. IU stayed with both absent big plays, but OSU's DL was perhaps more dominant? I'll also give OSU a slight edge in their game v. PSU...it was at PSU, and PSU probably should have beaten ND....

--ND's TO margin on the year is #1 nationally....OSU's is #44. Also, OSU's penalties v. TX were alarming.

--ND's DBs are at least as good as those of TX, and TX was able to take Smith out of the game and otherwise eliminate long passing plays. TX gave ND the blueprint....force OSU to be patient. It will be critical for OSU for Henderson & Judkins to have success running the ball......but OSU will also need to be creative in finding ways to get Smith involved.

--I thought the "home" crowd (probably 65% TX, 35% OSU) really helped TX, and more particularly probably caused some of their motion penalties. I would expect the crowd to be no worse than 55% OSU in Atlanta.

Thoughts???

Not a big drop off at DE for OSU. They use Curry and Jackson a ton but I wouldn’t put much stock into JTT not playing. He was running full speed with Sawyer on his fumble return.

ND absolutely needs to establish the run. They need to use clock, limit OSU’s possessions and force some turnovers. Defensively they can’t let Smith beat them, take their chances with Ebukka or Tate. Tennessee and Oregon rolled the dice and played man and got thumped. Play zone and force Henderson and Judkins to beat you. If they do, well “tip of the cap” I guarantee you it will be a ballgame in the 4th quarter. If Howard gets it going with Smith early and they get a decent lead, lookout, it will be a blowout because ND will have to abandon the run and it then will become a sack party for the OSU defense. I could actually see either scenario play out.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

IU lost to both ND and OSU, notably as a result of a few huge plays:
ND- interception at goalie and 98 yard run.
OSU- fumbled punt snap and long punt return.
OSU’s scoop and TD run late in the game secured their win against Texas.
OSU clearly outplayed Tennessee and Oregon, with OSU’s big plays highlighting both of these games.
It seemed to me that ND won their other 2 playoff games (GA and Penn state) on the legs of Leonard and opportunistic defense.
IMO, if OSU can muster big plays, they win. If ND can prevent big plays from OSU AND Leonard can eke out magical first downs, ND wins.

A couple of things about Leonard really stood out to me. First, no matter how stout the D line, he is going to be a handful on third and short. And, if they don't make it on third and short, he's almost impossible to stop on 4th and 1. Other than teams like Army and Navy, I don't remember a team where its so important to not give up more than 3 yards on 1st down. The other thing I noticed is how good he was locating receivers on (very) short pass plays, and improvising. The play where he was wrapped up and going down and flipped the ball forward for a first down is a good example.

On the other hand, the announcers add the stat that on third and 8 or more to go, ND was LAST in the country on converting.

OSU not only has to win 1st down by limiting runs to 3 yards or less.......they also need to shut off the 1st down throws for 5 or 6 yards.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

This could be a slobber knocker of a game with the fronts both defenses have. We will see how much the ND defense follows the game strategy Texas used. Can the OSU offense get untracked or will ND control it like Texas did? ND's offense will have a tough time moving the ball against OSU defense.

I was reading the OSU boards and I thought a guy made a good point about ND's pass D, which was that OSU's WRs are a cut above any team that they've faced this year. IU's WRs might have been the best, and that game was played in the cold and wind, at ND. The other team that had capable receivers was USC. That game was played on a warm and windless day, and ND had a hard time containing the USC pass game.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Not a big drop off at DE for OSU. They use Curry and Jackson a ton but I wouldn’t put much stock into JTT not playing. He was running full speed with Sawyer on his fumble return.

ND absolutely needs to establish the run. They need to use clock, limit OSU’s possessions and force some turnovers. Defensively they can’t let Smith beat them, take their chances with Ebukka or Tate. Tennessee and Oregon rolled the dice and played man and got thumped. Play zone and force Henderson and Judkins to beat you. If they do, well “tip of the cap” I guarantee you it will be a ballgame in the 4th quarter. If Howard gets it going with Smith early and they get a decent lead, lookout, it will be a blowout because ND will have to abandon the run and it then will become a sack party for the OSU defense. I could actually see either scenario play out.

I guess Curry made the fumble causing sack OSU did not recover.....

Concerning the man v. zone.....I think ND's main coverage has been man to man, behind the blitz. I guess they blitz as much as anyone. I agree they may play more zone, but if they do they are going away from what they like to do.

I want OSU to win the game. They need to utilize some screens and quick slants and quick hit rushes to make ND pay for blitzing so much....

Concerning Howard, I don't think much of Desmond Howard as an analyst, but he said one thing I thought was pretty smart, which was that if you make Howard constantly beat you with the short passing game, he will eventually throw the ball to the other team.

 

[nick614]

OSU and ND played the last two seasons and OSU won both with their top WR getting under 40 yards receiving and Henderson had no trouble running on them either game averaging 7.7 ypc.