Latest Bracketology, released yesterday

[IUNorth]

Disclaimer...Its July. There aren't very many things as useless as a summer Bracketology, in terms of actual analysis and predictions.

But its a conversation starter.

At first glance, seeing the 5 seed was disappointing. And I do think this team could be better than that. But... a 5 seed does mean we're viewed roughly as a "Top 20" team at years end. And from the rest of the B10 teams listed as in the tournament, IU would have the 2nd highest seed (Purdue at 4). So maybe that also would imply we'd be contending at the top of the conference.

So this gets back to everyone's expectations... If we did finish 2nd in the regular season, were a top 20 ish team at years end, and got a 5 seed...is that a good year for Woody and the program?

 

[Pryght]

For me, tournament performance is an important measure to evaluate Woody.

Assuming at least Top 20ish and at least a 5 seed....

Win National Championship: AMAZING YEAR
Final Four: Great Year
Elite Eight: Good Year
Sweet Sixteen: Satisfactory Year
Anything less: Disappointing Year

 

[IUNorth]

For me, tournament performance is an important measure to evaluate Woody.

Assuming at least Top 20ish and at least a 5 seed....

Win National Championship: AMAZING YEAR
Final Four: Great Year
Elite Eight: Good Year
Sweet Sixteen: Satisfactory Year
Anything less: Disappointing Year

I think I'd back that up a round...

Meaning...Final Four great year, down to first round loss being disappointing.

As with all of this, there are variances that could influence one way or another. A 2nd round loss to a 4 seed Tennessee team, in overtime, on a last second shot...different than a 2nd round loss to a 13 seed North Texas by 20, as an example...

And a "2nd place" finish in the B10 with a 12-8 record, tied with 5 other schools, and Purdue winning it at 16-4...is different than finishing 2nd alone at 15-5, and Purdue at 16-4.

I think the "5 seed", 2nd highest B10 seed, probably would imply that they think the B10 is going to be down, and that the teams at the top are bunched up with more losses.

So maybe I'm swinging back to being disappointed... Ha ha... all fun conjecture.

20+ wins
Contending for B10 title
Solid Big Ten Tournament showing
2nd weekend of NCAA tournament

Without having the specifics of how the season will be played out...those are my "best" attempts at realistic hopes/expectations.

 

[edub72]

I’d love an elite 8 run

 

[DCDAVID]

I’d love an elite 8 run

So would I. We have had 1 (ONE) Elite 8 appearance, in 2002, in the last 30 years. I never dreamed that could happen.

 

[Hatchets7times]

Tournament is such crap shot anymore..
Dominoes fall your way..
You may go from a one win tournament team.
To a an elite 8 team..

 

[birdforbogey]

Tournament is such crap shot anymore..
Dominoes fall your way..
You may go from a one win tournament team.
To a an elite 8 team..

But, you have to get the the tournament first. That’s been IU’s problem.

 

[TomEric4756]

With all the newcomers it’s a little more complicated than plugging in Scotty May for Steve Green.

Top 20 team with a tourney 5 seed is progress compared to “first four”. Need to stay injury free this year.

 

[kkott]

But, you have to get the the tournament first. That’s been IU’s problem.

No excuse for this team not making the tourney, although I'm getting concerned about Ballo's health with this latest signing. But, if he can give us 25+ mins a game and we stay fairly healthy, this team should be top 2 in conference and make the 2nd weekend of the tournament and anything less is underachieving, imo.

 

[YOTHN]

With all the newcomers it’s a little more complicated than plugging in Scotty May for Steve Green.

Top 20 team with a tourney 5 seed is progress compared to “first four”. Need to stay injury free this year.

Progress isn't what we are looking for in the current NCAA. You are resetting a lot of your team each year so hoping for progress on a team that is likely to get dismantled after the season wraps up, regardless of what they do, doesn't make much sense. Either IU finds a way to be consistently successful at a high level or it's a failure. Not being able to find a single season of high-level success after 4 seasons, would be a clear sign. We have to change the way we think about how you build a program and it's not what worked prior to this portal chaos.

 

[IUNorth]

Progress isn't what we are looking for in the current NCAA. You are resetting a lot of your team each year so hoping for progress on a team that is likely to get dismantled after the season wraps up, regardless of what they do, doesn't make much sense. Either IU finds a way to be consistently successful at a high level or it's a failure. Not being able to find a single season of high-level success after 4 seasons, would be a clear sign. We have to change the way we think about how you build a program and it's not what worked prior to this portal chaos.

I think the if they have a season that tracks with this latest Bracketology...AND they shown an ability to adapt a little more stylistically, AND if they play with a little more consistency... that will be what they can build on going forward. The specific players are going to change more each year than most years in the past. But coaches can, and should, still be able to recruit to what their programs philosophies are, the types of kids they want to coach, etc... The transfer portal actually give them more, and better "tape" to evaluate kids, than high school recruiting does.

So, obviously wins and losses are at the top of the measuring stick for this season. But how they play, what guys stick around, etc... will go a long way in determining how successful the season ends up being.

Top 20 ish, 5 seed, top 2-3 finish in B10... that sort of season can be viewed very differently depending on how we play, and who we'll likely have returning for next year.

 

[Tammany Hall]

In the new normal of the portal, IU hasn't had much roster turnover or dismantling. We kept all our key players. Not sure who goes pro next year, but we have a lot of players with eligibility and should have a core returning in 2025.

And all schools have the deal with increased roster turnover, it's not just us.

Imo the key is how much the staff learned from the last three years. Has Woody figured out college basketball going into this year? Maybe, the roster changes/upgrades will allow him to play much differently. We'll see.

 

[YOTHN]

In the new normal of the portal, IU hasn't had much roster turnover or dismantling. We kept all our key players. Not sure who goes pro next year, but we have a lot of players with eligibility and should have a core returning in 2025.

And all schools have the deal with increased roster turnover, it's not just us.

Imo the key is how much the staff learned from the last three years. Has Woody figured out college basketball going into this year? Maybe, the roster changes/upgrades will allow him to play much differently. We'll see.

Yeah, all schools have to deal with it, I think what defines a coach in today's game is one who can do just that and maintain consistent success while doing that. However, to portray IU as a team of stability or state they haven't had much turnover is crazy talk.

From 2 years ago, there are just 3 players left that were on that team. Reneau........Galloway and Leal. Galloway and Leal are using their COVID year or else Reneau would be the only one. Therefore, with just one season of separation, IU lost all but 3 players. This season alone we are replacing 6 players. Its not abnormal in any way but IU isn't some outlier in any category other than our inability to succeed in this environment so far.

 

[YOTHN]

I think the if they have a season that tracks with this latest Bracketology...AND they shown an ability to adapt a little more stylistically, AND if they play with a little more consistency... that will be what they can build on going forward. The specific players are going to change more each year than most years in the past. But coaches can, and should, still be able to recruit to what their programs philosophies are, the types of kids they want to coach, etc... The transfer portal actually give them more, and better "tape" to evaluate kids, than high school recruiting does.

So, obviously wins and losses are at the top of the measuring stick for this season. But how they play, what guys stick around, etc... will go a long way in determining how successful the season ends up being.

Top 20 ish, 5 seed, top 2-3 finish in B10... that sort of season can be viewed very differently depending on how we play, and who we'll likely have returning for next year.

I can agree with that for this year, depending upon how the league is. What you just outlined is exactly what Tom Crean did the season before we fired him. The 2015-2016 team actually won the conference by 2 games (15-3), was a 5 seed and ranked #14 overall. As the 1 seed in the BTT we exited the BTT in the quarterfinals and then made the S16 and lost to the eventual national champs in UNC. The issue is when those seasons are considered peak seasons as opposed to meeting expectations.

With the resources available to a current IU coach, there is no reason to have expectations lower than that. No lame excuses about injuries, graduation....etc. The buck starts and ends with the CEO of the team and preparing for adverse situations is part of that role.

 

[Tammany Hall]

Yeah, all schools have to deal with it, I think what defines a coach in today's game is one who can do just that and maintain consistent success while doing that. However, to portray IU as a team of stability or state they haven't had much turnover is crazy talk.

From 2 years ago, there are just 3 players left that were on that team. Reneau........Galloway and Leal. Galloway and Leal are using their COVID year or else Reneau would be the only one. Therefore, with just one season of separation, IU lost all but 3 players. This season alone we are replacing 6 players. Its not abnormal in any way but IU isn't some outlier in any category other than our inability to succeed in this environment so far.

Idk, we haven’t had a key player xfer out in two years, and players graduating and going pro is obviously part of college ball. We’ve had plenty of issues, but it seems like roster stability isn’t one. A lot of teams have way more turnover.

 

[YOTHN]

Idk, we haven’t had a key player xfer out in two years, and players graduating and going pro is obviously part of college ball. We’ve had plenty of issues, but it seems like roster stability isn’t one. A lot of teams have way more turnover.

So no key players transferring and still a lack of success? That is even more troublesome than I was thinking.....better start our search now.

 

[IUNorth]

I can agree with that for this year, depending upon how the league is. What you just outlined is exactly what Tom Crean did the season before we fired him. The 2015-2016 team actually won the conference by 2 games (15-3), was a 5 seed and ranked #14 overall. As the 1 seed in the BTT we exited the BTT in the quarterfinals and then made the S16 and lost to the eventual national champs in UNC. The issue is when those seasons are considered peak seasons as opposed to meeting expectations.

With the resources available to a current IU coach, there is no reason to have expectations lower than that. No lame excuses about injuries, graduation....etc. The buck starts and ends with the CEO of the team and preparing for adverse situations is part of that role.

Oh for sure! Crean's problem was the highs and lows he showed. And ultimately the realization that his "best" wasn't likely going to get us banner #6.

I don't think Indiana needs a "great" coach like RMK, or even a guy like Stevens or Donovan, to get back to competing for Final Fours again, and ultimately getting #6. They just need a someone that can harness the power that our history, program, and NIL machine provides...AND then is a solid basketball tactician and motivator to utilize the talent consistently well.

Woodson could end up being that guy. As much as I've ragged on him for his style of play, and for how inconsistent his teams have been, he has shown a willingness and ability to adapt. If he can somehow figure out the consistency side, things could really click for him at IU. But he's got to show it very soon. Too much money being thrown around for IU to not start trending back towards top of B10, and a threat in the NCAA's most years.

 

[Bucket Getter]

Oh for sure! Crean's problem was the highs and lows he showed. And ultimately the realization that his "best" wasn't likely going to get us banner #6.

I don't think Indiana needs a "great" coach like RMK, or even a guy like Stevens or Donovan, to get back to competing for Final Fours again, and ultimately getting #6. They just need a someone that can harness the power that our history, program, and NIL machine provides...AND then is a solid basketball tactician and motivator to utilize the talent consistently well.

Woodson could end up being that guy. As much as I've ragged on him for his style of play, and for how inconsistent his teams have been, he has shown a willingness and ability to adapt. If he can somehow figure out the consistency side, things could really click for him at IU. But he's got to show it very soon. Too much money being thrown around for IU to not start trending back towards top of B10, and a threat in the NCAA's most years.

I hope you’re right. It’ll surprise me, but that’s ok too.

 

[steelyvan]

Oh for sure! Crean's problem was the highs and lows he showed. And ultimately the realization that his "best" wasn't likely going to get us banner #6.

I don't think Indiana needs a "great" coach like RMK, or even a guy like Stevens or Donovan, to get back to competing for Final Fours again, and ultimately getting #6. They just need a someone that can harness the power that our history, program, and NIL machine provides...AND then is a solid basketball tactician and motivator to utilize the talent consistently well.

Woodson could end up being that guy. As much as I've ragged on him for his style of play, and for how inconsistent his teams have been, he has shown a willingness and ability to adapt. If he can somehow figure out the consistency side, things could really click for him at IU. But he's got to show it very soon. Too much money being thrown around for IU to not start trending back towards top of B10, and a threat in the NCAA's most years.

i think i am in the camp that says we do need a great coach. would be more confident in our future with Donovan or Stevens.
(coach RMK would never be comfortable paying NIL for players and the portal)
Woody has his chance this year to move toward greatness. our return to true national prominence rests on his shoulders. hope he gets there.

 

[IUNorth]

i think i am in the camp that says we do need a great coach. would be more confident in our future with Donovan or Stevens.
(coach RMK would never be comfortable paying NIL for players and the portal)
Woody has his chance this year to move toward greatness. our return to true national prominence rests on his shoulders. hope he gets there.

Well obviously. I just don't think we "need" a coach of that caliber to get back to the top of the conference consistently.

I guess whoever achieves that at IU, though, will be seen as pretty "great".

 

[YOTHN]

Oh for sure! Crean's problem was the highs and lows he showed. And ultimately the realization that his "best" wasn't likely going to get us banner #6.

I don't think Indiana needs a "great" coach like RMK, or even a guy like Stevens or Donovan, to get back to competing for Final Fours again, and ultimately getting #6. They just need a someone that can harness the power that our history, program, and NIL machine provides...AND then is a solid basketball tactician and motivator to utilize the talent consistently well.

Woodson could end up being that guy. As much as I've ragged on him for his style of play, and for how inconsistent his teams have been, he has shown a willingness and ability to adapt. If he can somehow figure out the consistency side, things could really click for him at IU. But he's got to show it very soon. Too much money being thrown around for IU to not start trending back towards top of B10, and a threat in the NCAA's most years.

Precisely. The logic here is the resources available to IU coaches in this modern era makes IU a more favorable job in the coaching circles than it has been for some time. Couple that with the lack of a need to start from behind when trying to build a program eliminates the need for a 4-5 year runway to determine if a coach has what it takes.

 

[Bucket Getter]

Precisely. The logic here is the resources available to IU coaches in this modern era makes IU a more favorable job in the coaching circles than it has been for some time. Couple that with the lack of a need to start from behind when trying to build a program eliminates the need for a 4-5 year runway to determine if a coach has what it takes.

In this era, I don’t believe any coach deserves 4-5 years to prove his mettle. It’s too easy to flip a roster to suit your needs, especially at a place like IU. No excuse whatsoever to not win big with everything this job now provides.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

IU has the talent to easily be 1 or 2 in the conference but the coaching to finish 6-9 place. One of the worst staffs in the conference, unfortunately.

 

[TomEric4756]

Progress isn't what we are looking for in the current NCAA. You are resetting a lot of your team each year so hoping for progress on a team that is likely to get dismantled after the season wraps up, regardless of what they do, doesn't make much sense. Either IU finds a way to be consistently successful at a high level or it's a failure. Not being able to find a single season of high-level success after 4 seasons, would be a clear sign. We have to change the way we think about how you build a program and it's not what worked prior to this portal chaos.

Expecting Woody to deliver instant excellence was unrealistic in my view. This bunch has the potential to exceed the 4-5 seed projection. They need to gel faster than last year’s team and avoid injuries.

Al McGuire said that teams needed 3 NBA talents to compete for championships (Spartans had 3 to Larry Byrd’s Sycamores 2) … IU may have 3 this year … should Mackenzie improve … and Ballo play at least 20 min. a game. There should be a third between Newton and the two transfer guards.

We didn’t have three in Woody’s prior seasons. The COVID season 6th year seniors are an X factor … they know enough to keep younger talent off the court, if the young talent doesn’t learn fast enough.

The issue is when those seasons are considered peak seasons as opposed to meeting expectations.

I agree with this quote it’s time to start meeting expectations … even among those who may not agree what those expectations should be.

 

[T.M.P.]

Expecting Woody to deliver instant excellence was unrealistic in my view. This bunch has the potential to exceed the 4-5 seed projection. They need to gel faster than last year’s team and avoid injuries.

Al McGuire said that teams needed 3 NBA talents to compete for championships (Spartans had 3 to Larry Byrd’s Sycamores 2) … IU may have 3 this year … should Mackenzie improve … and Ballo play at least 20 min. a game. There should be a third between Newton and the two transfer guards.

We didn’t have three in Woody’s prior seasons. The COVID season 6th year seniors are an X factor … they know enough to keep younger talent off the court, if the young talent doesn’t learn fast enough.



I agree with this quote it’s time to start meeting expectations … even among those who may not agree what those expectations should be.

Tucker has the most pro upside, Mack and Carlyle are next. Malik, Rice and Ballo have a chance though Ballo probably won't be drafted. Until Newton actually plays .. who knows.

 

[BA47591]

There are over a half a dozen coaches out there that if they had our current roster would be pre-season top 5 and a 2-seed. We have the best 8 deep roster by far, in the country. The versatility of this group is impressive. The implementation of it remains to be seen.

 

[IUNorth]

There are over a half a dozen coaches out there that if they had our current roster would be pre-season top 5 and a 2-seed. We have the best 8 deep roster by far, in the country. The versatility of this group is impressive. The implementation of it remains to be seen.

I think we have a "Top 10" main rotation...probably. But zero chance its "the best 8 deep roster by far, in the country".

Dujuan Harris Jr
Zeke Mayo
AJ Storr
KJ Adams
Hunter Dickinson
Rylan Griffen
Flory Bidunga
Rakease Passmore

That could be better than Indiana at every position...as just 1 example.

Duke, Alabama, Gonzaga, UConn, Houston, Baylor...amongst others that have very, very good main rotations.

 

[T.M.P.]

We have the best 8 deep roster by far, in the country.

Nope.

 

[OpenWheels]

Coach has had over three years to build his team. This is his team. This is his staff. He's had all the resources too.

If he can't win big this year he doesn't have it. Barring major injury anyway. A five seed isn't 'winning big'... Unless they make a huge run in the tourney.

Sure, maybe they can be even better next year, but this year they should be really good. If not, we'll know.

 

[IUNorth]

Coach has had over three years to build his team. This is his team. This is his staff. He's had all the resources too.

If he can't win big this year he doesn't have it. Barring major injury anyway. A five seed isn't 'winning big'... Unless they make a huge run in the tourney.

Sure, maybe they can be even better next year, but this year they should be really good. If not, we'll know.

Obviously a lot of things to look for and measure success by this season. And wins, and tournament success are at the top of the list of things to judge Woodson on. But practically, on the whole, I'll be looking at 2 things...

1. How consistent is their effort and execution. If I had to pick any single concern with Woodson and his coaching, this would probably be it. Despite having quite a lot of maturity, and at times, a lot of talent, his teams are like roller coasters when it comes to effort and execution. Often times even within games. I can think of only a few games, in 3 years, where we played anywhere close to an entire game of good basketball. He's had way too much experience and talent for that to be the case.

2. Does the offense become more ball and player movement based. Another one of my constant complaints about Woody, too much post ISO, too much X/JHS dribbling, not enough varying action and movement off the ball. We definitely started to do more of it last year as the year wore on. But with the pieces we have this year, he has to "open it up" more. It would be a bad decision not to, and a horrible sign for the future of his program at IU...in my opinion.

But I'm not sure I'm as on board with the "its his fourth year, he needs to win big now..." narrative. I think the 2 things I'm focusing more on above will determine how well they play, and how many wins they have. But there definitely is a scenario that could play out where they quite obviously improve the 2 things above, and not win the B10, and still get bounced early from the NCAAs. THAT will be a tough spot for Dolson.