IU's CFP odds increased significantly this weekend

[Grateful Redbeard]

We are now at 87%, up from 63%, to make the CFP. TX A&M, Iowa St, and Clemson all lost and that raised our odds. If we go 11-1 we are at 98% to qualify, and if things continue to trend our direction, host a 1st round game. TN is ahead of us and they will lose at GA. Bama or LSU will have 3 losses after this week. GA still has to go to Ole Miss. Beat O$U and none of the projections matter, but 11-1 has become a sure thing to qualify.

 

[Tammany Hall]

The committee ranking tomorrow will be very interesting. Will they ignore the brand/school and focus on the actual teams and results? Or are we going to see bias towards the historical FB schools?

 

[Bucket Getter]

We are now at 87%, up from 63%, to make the CFP. TX A&M, Iowa St, and Clemson all lost and that raised our odds. If we go 11-1 we are at 98% to qualify, and if things continue to trend our direction, host a 1st round game. TN is ahead of us and they will lose at GA. Bama or LSU will have 3 losses after this week. GA still has to go to Ole Miss. Beat O$U and none of the projections matter, but 11-1 has become a sure thing to qualify.

I’d absolutely love a first round matchup in Memorial Stadium! Seems foreign even typing that out. What a helluva gift Coach Cig has given us lifetime Hoosier football diehards this year. Just grateful I’m still here to witness it.

 

[Bucket Getter]

The committee ranking tomorrow will be very interesting. Will they ignore the brand/school and focus on the actual teams and results? Or are we going to see bias towards the historical FB schools?

At this point, I’d guess it’s going to be very difficult to screw us. It will be very interesting to watch tho. And I can’t wait to see next week’s show after curb-stomping UM. 😂

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

The committee ranking tomorrow will be very interesting. Will they ignore the brand/school and focus on the actual teams and results? Or are we going to see bias towards the historical FB schools?

It's still true that we don't have a marquee win, but neither does Penn State, so there's really no excuse for us being behind them, but we will be. The same is probably true for a couple of other schools too.

 

[IUNorth]

We are now at 87%, up from 63%, to make the CFP. TX A&M, Iowa St, and Clemson all lost and that raised our odds. If we go 11-1 we are at 98% to qualify, and if things continue to trend our direction, host a 1st round game. TN is ahead of us and they will lose at GA. Bama or LSU will have 3 losses after this week. GA still has to go to Ole Miss. Beat O$U and none of the projections matter, but 11-1 has become a sure thing to qualify.

Logically...a win Saturday could essentially punch our ticket to the CFP (assuming we don't lose to Purdue)

I think its obvious we're a better football team than Michigan, a lot better actually. And I know this has been said in basically every B10 game thus far...but this is a different challenge for this team. From a star ratings, 2 deep, etc... perspective, Michigan is the most talented team we'll have played this year. And more specifically, the most talented in areas that often separate the big boys...the O and D lines. I fully trust we'll be ready for the challenge, but I doubt we'll be able to push Michigan around like we have many of our other opponents this year. Washington is probably a decent comp, but without a quarterback that's likely capable of beating us with his arm like Washington's could have been. That game was very tenuous in to the 2nd half. And we actually were able to push them around in that 2nd half. Doubt we'd be able to beat Michigan that exact same way, but I don't doubt that Cig and the staff would figure out how to do it.

If nothing weird happens like injuries, a lot of balls not bouncing our way, etc... we should beat them.

And man, at that point...its crazy to even be thinking about it.

 

[Bowlmania]

We are now at 87%, up from 63%, to make the CFP. TX A&M, Iowa St, and Clemson all lost and that raised our odds. If we go 11-1 we are at 98% to qualify, and if things continue to trend our direction, host a 1st round game. TN is ahead of us and they will lose at GA. Bama or LSU will have 3 losses after this week. GA still has to go to Ole Miss. Beat O$U and none of the projections matter, but 11-1 has become a sure thing to qualify.

I'm concerned that the B1G championship game could eff things up for us. And not that we'll lose, but that we won't be playing in it.

Of course, if we finish the regular season at 12-0, I won't have to worry about us not playing on Dec 7.

 

[IUNorth]

I’d absolutely love a first round matchup in Memorial Stadium! Seems foreign even typing that out. What a helluva gift Coach Cig has given us lifetime Hoosier football diehards this year. Just grateful I’m still here to witness it.

If we do end up hosting a game in Memorial Stadium...I would love to host Notre Dame. Thumping Notre Dame in that environment would be soooooo satisfying.

 

[Harry Hondo]

We are now at 87%, up from 63%, to make the CFP. TX A&M, Iowa St, and Clemson all lost and that raised our odds. If we go 11-1 we are at 98% to qualify, and if things continue to trend our direction, host a 1st round game. TN is ahead of us and they will lose at GA. Bama or LSU will have 3 losses after this week. GA still has to go to Ole Miss. Beat O$U and none of the projections matter, but 11-1 has become a sure thing to qualify.

Frankly, it's great to have that game in Columbus, win or lose, since it'll give our guys a feel for what it will be like in a road CFP game against a favored traditional power. Can't get any bigger stage than Columbus against OSU. Also, love that all the B10 teams in the CFP have outdoor stadiums with games being in December. It'd be great to have an SEC team in here, having temps in the 30's with a chance for snow, and our QB being from CANADA! 🤣

 

[IUgradman]

Logically...a win Saturday could essentially punch our ticket to the CFP (assuming we don't lose to Purdue)

I think its obvious we're a better football team than Michigan, a lot better actually. And I know this has been said in basically every B10 game thus far...but this is a different challenge for this team. From a star ratings, 2 deep, etc... perspective, Michigan is the most talented team we'll have played this year. And more specifically, the most talented in areas that often separate the big boys...the O and D lines. I fully trust we'll be ready for the challenge, but I doubt we'll be able to push Michigan around like we have many of our other opponents this year. Washington is probably a decent comp, but without a quarterback that's likely capable of beating us with his arm like Washington's could have been. That game was very tenuous in to the 2nd half. And we actually were able to push them around in that 2nd half. Doubt we'd be able to beat Michigan that exact same way, but I don't doubt that Cig and the staff would figure out how to do it.

If nothing weird happens like injuries, a lot of balls not bouncing our way, etc... we should beat them.

And man, at that point...its crazy to even be thinking about it.

Michigan State ran for 163 yards against Michigan. They had NEGATIVE 36 rushing yards against IU. Michigan State also dominated time of possession and outgained Michigan 352-265. They had 193 yards against IU and did nothing after the first quarter. The only reason the Washington game was close was due to Rourke not playing.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

Logically...a win Saturday could essentially punch our ticket to the CFP (assuming we don't lose to Purdue)

I think its obvious we're a better football team than Michigan, a lot better actually. And I know this has been said in basically every B10 game thus far...but this is a different challenge for this team. From a star ratings, 2 deep, etc... perspective, Michigan is the most talented team we'll have played this year. And more specifically, the most talented in areas that often separate the big boys...the O and D lines. I fully trust we'll be ready for the challenge, but I doubt we'll be able to push Michigan around like we have many of our other opponents this year. Washington is probably a decent comp, but without a quarterback that's likely capable of beating us with his arm like Washington's could have been. That game was very tenuous in to the 2nd half. And we actually were able to push them around in that 2nd half. Doubt we'd be able to beat Michigan that exact same way, but I don't doubt that Cig and the staff would figure out how to do it.

If nothing weird happens like injuries, a lot of balls not bouncing our way, etc... we should beat them.

And man, at that point...its crazy to even be thinking about it.

Perfectly stated

 

[IUNorth]

Michigan State ran for 163 yards against Michigan. They had NEGATIVE 36 rushing yards against IU. Michigan State also dominated time of possession and outgained Michigan 352-265. They had 193 yards against IU and did nothing after the first quarter. The only reason the Washington game was close was due to Rourke not playing.

Yep...we should beat them. But we'll be going about our business against cats that are bigger, stronger, and faster, than any of the teams we've played against this year. So, yet again, its a new kind of challenge.

Good news is Cignetti and his staff have bitch slapped every challenge put in front of them thus far. And those athletes wearing the famous helmets, they haven't shown an ability to use their size and athleticism particularly well thus far.

Barring weird stuff like injuries, lots of turnovers, obvious officiating challenges...IU should handle Michigan on Saturday.

This isn't a perfect analogy...but it fits in some ways. IU is like a really, really, really good 4A or so level football team right now. Michigan is like a very talented, and athletic, but overall not great 6A program. You always have to be a little wary that the size, depth, and talent wakes up for that 6A school in games like this. But there's zero question IU has the better team right now.

 

[Tammany Hall]

Yea, it's true we don't have a signature win, as Kraft said PSU doesn't either (ILL at home?) and another in my opinion is Miami. We're short in this category right now.

I can only hope IU gets some offsetting credit for our domination so far. I cannot believe some of the scores and stats we've put up, which compares pretty favorably to other top-10/15 teams.

Unfortunately, I suspect the burden of proof will higher for IU vs. the big programs. It's a committee of people, and they'll probably have biases and incentives influencing them.

We'll find out more vs. pro talent heavy UM and of course OSU. Maybe we have a tough time vs. UM and/or get blown out vs OSU, I don't know, it's possible. But if we don't... wow.

 

[IUNorth]

Yea, it's true we don't have a signature win, as Kraft said PSU doesn't either (ILL at home?) and another in my opinion is Miami. We're short in this category right now.

I can only hope IU gets some offsetting credit for our domination so far. I cannot believe some of the scores and stats we've put up, which compares pretty favorably to other top-10/15 teams.

Unfortunately, I suspect the burden of proof will higher for IU vs. the big programs. It's a committee of people, and they'll probably have biases and incentives influencing them.

We'll find out more vs. pro talent heavy UM and of course OSU. Maybe we have a tough time vs. UM and/or get blown out vs OSU, I don't know, it's possible. But if we don't... wow.

The Washington game is what tempers my thoughts that getting beat by UM, and/or getting blown out by OSU, should be possible. Specifically how we beat them, without Rourke. UW, while obviously not as talented as UM or OSU, they're up there. And you could see the talent and physicality throughout that game. But then, Cignetti and IU decided enough was enough, and ran their asses in to the ground. And then we did at again against MSU. We didn't gimmick it. We didn't "5 wide" it and Rourke just picked them apart. We beat, THE HELL, out of those two teams that were likely overall bigger and stronger.

Not saying we'll for certain win either or both of the next 2 games. But they'll have a very different feel to really any other year we'll have played them.

 

[turney333]

IU has outperformed all playoff contenders with common opponents, and all but one by 2 scores or more.

UCLA (29pt IU win) - PSU won by 16/Ore won by 19/LSU won by 17
Neb (49pt IU win) - OSU won by 4
MSU (37pt IU win) - Ore won by 21/OSU won by 31 (closest margin to IU)

Trying to apply the transitive property to individual opponents/scores in football isn't all that meaningful, but on aggregate it is hard to ignore

We will have another point of reference this weekend as Mich lost to Texas by 19 and Oregon by 21

 

[Bucket Getter]

Yea, it's true we don't have a signature win, as Kraft said PSU doesn't either (ILL at home?) and another in my opinion is Miami. We're short in this category right now.

I can only hope IU gets some offsetting credit for our domination so far. I cannot believe some of the scores and stats we've put up, which compares pretty favorably to other top-10/15 teams.

Unfortunately, I suspect the burden of proof will higher for IU vs. the big programs. It's a committee of people, and they'll probably have biases and incentives influencing them.

We'll find out more vs. pro talent heavy UM and of course OSU. Maybe we have a tough time vs. UM and/or get blown out vs OSU, I don't know, it's possible. But if we don't... wow.

I don't think either of your last two scenarios happen. We will curb stomp Mich and give OSU all they want. Hell, I'm not sure we aren't a whole lot better coached than them. As much fun as it's been so far, I believe these next 3 games are going to be over the top!

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

I'm concerned that the B1G championship game could eff things up for us. And not that we'll lose, but that we won't be playing in it.

Of course, if we finish the regular season at 12-0, I won't have to worry about us not playing on Dec 7.

12-0 obviously changes everything, but a close loss at O$U won't really hurt us. We need the game for our SoS and the fact that it's away means we will be expected to lose by all the metrics. The committee use all the metrics, and we are great everywhere else, but we need a SoS boost badly. UM will provide a small boost, but we need to win convincingly. Our offensive and defensive dominance, which creates our very large margin of victory, really stands out in the metrics. We are thoroughly outperforming our FPI projections weekly. 11-1 should be our floor at this point and that gets us into the CFP. I am very close to buying a ticket and heading to Columbus in a few weeks because i think we have a chance to do the unthinkable there, and make it the darkest day in O$U history again.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

IU has outperformed all playoff contenders with common opponents, and all but one by 2 scores or more.

UCLA (29pt IU win) - PSU won by 16/Ore won by 19/LSU won by 17
Neb (49pt IU win) - OSU won by 4
MSU (37pt IU win) - Ore won by 21/OSU won by 31 (closest margin to IU)

Trying to apply the transitive property to individual opponents/scores in football isn't all that meaningful, but on aggregate it is hard to ignore

We will have another point of reference this weekend as Mich lost to Texas by 19 and Oregon by 21

The transitive property of college football wins is fun, but rarely relevant. That said, you are spot on about the trend we are seeing between common opponents: We win by a lot more! Our winning margin is possibly our best metric.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

Logically...a win Saturday could essentially punch our ticket to the CFP (assuming we don't lose to Purdue)

I think its obvious we're a better football team than Michigan, a lot better actually. And I know this has been said in basically every B10 game thus far...but this is a different challenge for this team. From a star ratings, 2 deep, etc... perspective, Michigan is the most talented team we'll have played this year. And more specifically, the most talented in areas that often separate the big boys...the O and D lines. I fully trust we'll be ready for the challenge, but I doubt we'll be able to push Michigan around like we have many of our other opponents this year. Washington is probably a decent comp, but without a quarterback that's likely capable of beating us with his arm like Washington's could have been. That game was very tenuous in to the 2nd half. And we actually were able to push them around in that 2nd half. Doubt we'd be able to beat Michigan that exact same way, but I don't doubt that Cig and the staff would figure out how to do it.

If nothing weird happens like injuries, a lot of balls not bouncing our way, etc... we should beat them.

And man, at that point...its crazy to even be thinking about it.

Agreed. As long as we don't get beat by 60 at O$U, and there aren't a ton of championship game upsets, 11-1 gets us qualified. 11-1 is our floor at this point and I've been dreaming of a home game against ND for a couple of weeks now. Army could mess that up though.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Agreed. As long as we don't get beat by 60 at O$U, and there aren't a ton of championship game upsets, 11-1 gets us qualified. 11-1 is our floor at this point and I've been dreaming of a home game against ND for a couple of weeks now. Army could mess that up though.

If Army goes unbeaten they might knock out Boise St. for that non-P4 12th spot. But they won't keep us out.

I do think we COULD get left out at 13-1, and easily. See my post under the CFB projections thread.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

If Army goes unbeaten they might knock out Boise St. for that non-P4 12th spot. But they won't keep us out.

I do think we COULD get left out at 13-1, and easily. See my post under the CFB projections thread.

I meant that if Army beats ND, then we won't get to play ND in the CFP.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

If Army goes unbeaten they might knock out Boise St. for that non-P4 12th spot. But they won't keep us out.

I do think we COULD get left out at 13-1, and easily. See my post under the CFB projections thread.

I don't think Army is jumping Boise unless Boise loses, but I Guess a win over ND might give them just enough of a boost.