IU's B1G Season - A Tale of Two Halves

[6th&Dunn]

IU sits at just 9-10 in the B1G this year. Of the 10 losses, IU had excellent chances to win 9 of them, with Michigan State being the exception. After noting several 2nd half collapses, I wanted to dig in and quantify IU's performance in the 1st half of B1G games this year vs the 2nd half. As you may expect, the results are rather alarming:

1. IU is +93 in the 1st half of B1G games.

2. IU is -79 (!) in the 2nd half of B1G games. If you include OT, it's -90.

3. In 19 B1G games, IU outscored their opponent in the 1st half in 14 of these games. Only PSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and OSU outscored IU in the first half, and by less than 10 points in all cases.

4. In the same 19 B1G games, IU was outscored by their opponent in the 2nd half in 12 of these games, with 7 of those differences exceeding 10 points. Wisconsin and Illinois outscored IU by 22 and 19 points, respectively, in the 2nd half.

5. Of the 7 B1G games where IU outscored their opponent in the 2nd half, 2 were against PSU, 2 were against Maryland, 2 were against OSU (lost in OT once though), and 1 was against Minnesota.

6. Completing the trend, IU is -11 in the one OT game played against OSU.

The data support the idea of IU performing very poorly in the 2nd half and OT of B1G games. This supports the idea of Woodson having the team ready to play in the 1st half, but letting things slip in the 2nd half.

Any ideas of why this is happening?

 

[Crayfish57]

IU sits at just 9-10 in the B1G this year. Of the 10 losses, IU had excellent chances to win 9 of them, with Michigan State being the exception. After noting several 2nd half collapses, I wanted to dig in and quantify IU's performance in the 1st half of B1G games this year vs the 2nd half. As you may expect, the results are rather alarming:

1. IU is +93 in the 1st half of B1G games.

2. IU is -79 (!) in the 2nd half of B1G games. If you include OT, it's -90.

3. In 19 B1G games, IU outscored their opponent in the 1st half in 14 of these games. Only PSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and OSU outscored IU in the first half, and by less than 10 points in all cases.

4. In the same 19 B1G games, IU was outscored by their opponent in the 2nd half in 12 of these games, with 7 of those differences exceeding 10 points. Wisconsin and Illinois outscored IU by 22 and 19 points, respectively, in the 2nd half.

5. Of the 7 B1G games where IU outscored their opponent in the 2nd half, 2 were against PSU, 2 were against Maryland, 2 were against OSU (lost in OT once though), and 1 was against Minnesota.

6. Completing the trend, IU is -11 in the one OT game played against OSU.

The data support the idea of IU performing very poorly in the 2nd half and OT of B1G games. This supports the idea of Woodson having the team ready to play in the 1st half, but letting things slip in the 2nd half.

Any ideas of why this is happening?

Halftime adjustments, getting outcoached and lack of mental toughness

 

[kkott]

Halftime adjustments, getting outcoached and lack of mental toughness

Yep, they figure us out and adjust at halftime, just like Rutgers did last night. When they went to the zone and started digging down on TJD we were done when we couldn't make our outside shots.

 

[6th&Dunn]

Halftime adjustments, getting outcoached and lack of mental toughness

A weak roster could also have these results, where Woodson in practice can coach up a good strategy pre-game, but in-game he simply doesn't have the horses to pull off successful adjustments and the opponents with better rosters can. I think it's interesting that IU "swept" 3 teams by outscoring them in the 2nd half in both games, and that's fully 6 of the 7 times it happened. Could also be coaching though.

 

[Crayfish57]

Bad substitutions. I admit I wasnt watching the fouls but unless major trouble TJD and RT cant both be out at the same time for almost 5 minutes. This team has no margin for error , and one /two games left after this one . Nothing to save them for .

 

[birdforbogey]

A weak roster could also have these results, where Woodson in practice can coach up a good strategy pre-game, but in-game he simply doesn't have the horses to pull off successful adjustments and the opponents with better rosters can. I think it's interesting that IU "swept" 3 teams by outscoring them in the 2nd half in both games, and that's fully 6 of the 7 times it happened. Could also be coaching though.

The platoon system can not coincide with a weak roster; however CMW does it every game.

 

[bailey777]

IU sits at just 9-10 in the B1G this year. Of the 10 losses, IU had excellent chances to win 9 of them, with Michigan State being the exception. After noting several 2nd half collapses, I wanted to dig in and quantify IU's performance in the 1st half of B1G games this year vs the 2nd half. As you may expect, the results are rather alarming:

1. IU is +93 in the 1st half of B1G games.

2. IU is -79 (!) in the 2nd half of B1G games. If you include OT, it's -90.

3. In 19 B1G games, IU outscored their opponent in the 1st half in 14 of these games. Only PSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and OSU outscored IU in the first half, and by less than 10 points in all cases.

4. In the same 19 B1G games, IU was outscored by their opponent in the 2nd half in 12 of these games, with 7 of those differences exceeding 10 points. Wisconsin and Illinois outscored IU by 22 and 19 points, respectively, in the 2nd half.

5. Of the 7 B1G games where IU outscored their opponent in the 2nd half, 2 were against PSU, 2 were against Maryland, 2 were against OSU (lost in OT once though), and 1 was against Minnesota.

6. Completing the trend, IU is -11 in the one OT game played against OSU.

The data support the idea of IU performing very poorly in the 2nd half and OT of B1G games. This supports the idea of Woodson having the team ready to play in the 1st half, but letting things slip in the 2nd half.

Any ideas of why this is happening?

Usually good coches make halftime adjustments to yeah that isnt good.

 

[IUNorth]

There are sooooo many possibilities here. I'm not sure we'll ever "know" the correct answer/answers.

How well conditioned are they?

How long do they practice?

What is the structure of their practices? Do they start out with harder, meat and potatoes stuff, maybe more of the specific game planning, and end with drill work and looser stuff? Or does he demand focus and energy from start to finish?

Are opponents really making better in game adjustments?

Are his substitution patterns effecting game flows and confidence?

What role does our specific player strengths/weaknesses play?

Does running our offense through TJD and Race in the post, create issues concentration and energy wise, for everyone else as the game wears on...and at the same time, does it tire those 2 out?

In the end, Woody is responsible for the product on the court. So yes, its his fault. I'm just not certain its ALL in game coaching decision related. It rarely is.

 

[Crayfish57]

Usually good coches make halftime adjustments to yeah that isnt good.

Those are the best coochies to find!!!

 

[IUNorth]

IU sits at just 9-10 in the B1G this year. Of the 10 losses, IU had excellent chances to win 9 of them, with Michigan State being the exception. After noting several 2nd half collapses, I wanted to dig in and quantify IU's performance in the 1st half of B1G games this year vs the 2nd half. As you may expect, the results are rather alarming:

1. IU is +93 in the 1st half of B1G games.

2. IU is -79 (!) in the 2nd half of B1G games. If you include OT, it's -90.

3. In 19 B1G games, IU outscored their opponent in the 1st half in 14 of these games. Only PSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and OSU outscored IU in the first half, and by less than 10 points in all cases.

4. In the same 19 B1G games, IU was outscored by their opponent in the 2nd half in 12 of these games, with 7 of those differences exceeding 10 points. Wisconsin and Illinois outscored IU by 22 and 19 points, respectively, in the 2nd half.

5. Of the 7 B1G games where IU outscored their opponent in the 2nd half, 2 were against PSU, 2 were against Maryland, 2 were against OSU (lost in OT once though), and 1 was against Minnesota.

6. Completing the trend, IU is -11 in the one OT game played against OSU.

The data support the idea of IU performing very poorly in the 2nd half and OT of B1G games. This supports the idea of Woodson having the team ready to play in the 1st half, but letting things slip in the 2nd half.

Any ideas of why this is happening?

For my own curiosity, I looked at the +/- for the under 12 timeout vs end of regulation scores for all our Big Ten games. And then also the under 4 timeout numbers as well. As that has appeared to me, to be the most "reliable" breaking point when we start sucking...

Losses

Under 12 +/- ... (-64)
Under 4 +/- ... (-48)

Wins

Under 12 +/- ... (+10, including a -17 against Minny)
Under 4 +/- ... (+5)

So the numbers are showing our guys are fading pretty dramatically in that midway through second half time frame. We all knew that. But the numbers make it even more striking to me.

And also overall, I wouldn't say its half time adjustments that are killing us. As we're doing fairly well the first 8 minutes of 2nd halves, even in losses.

Its that our team isn't able to close games out.