There's always back and forths on here about what upward trajectory should look like and the future of the football program. So I thought I would present research based on history of the program to paint a picture of what IU trajectory should look like if it's a true improvement year over year. My goal is to be mostly objective here based on facts, and occasionally throw in my opinion on those facts.
- Indiana football has been around since the 1887 season, making 2016 the 130th year of Hoosier football.
- Out of 130 seasons IU has only been to a bowl 10 times. Indiana is 3-7 all time in bowl games.
- Indiana's best season historically is the 1945 season. Coached by Bo McMillan, Indiana went 9-0-1 and finished the season as the AP #4 team. This is the only time IU has won the conference outright.
- It has been 50 seasons since IU won the conference and went to the Rose Bowl. Again as the AP #4 team. This season was by far IU's best season, from a performance standpoint. IU beat #10 Arizona on the road, #7 Wisconsin, and #6 MSU on the road. The one regular season loss came at the hands of #5 Minnesota on the road. IU lost to #1 USC in the Rose Bowl.
- Indiana's best performing coach is Bill Mallory. He took IU to 6 bowls. He took IU to 3 straight bowls from 1986-1988, and back to back bowls in 1990-1991.
- The only two times in IU history to go to back to back bowls was under Coach Mallory.
- It has been 25 seasons since IU went to back to back bowls.
- Here is a breakdown of wins vs. ranked opponents over the past 50 seasons:
- 1977, #19 Minnesota
- 1978, #15 Washington
- 1979, #9 BYU (Holiday Bowl)
- 1987, @ #9 OSU, #20 Michigan
- 1993, @ #22 MSU
- 2000, #22 Minnesota
- 2001, @#21 MSU
- 2002, #23 Wisconsin
- 2004, @#23 Oregon, #23 Minnesota (both were #23 at the time of victory)
- 2006, #14 Iowa
- 2014, @ #18 Missouri
- 2016, #17 MSU
That is 14 total wins over a ranked opponent in 50 years of football. The highest being the #9 team twice in the 80s.
So to think IU should be beating top 10 teams because of a .500 record the year before; there is not a lot of data points suggesting that should happen. The fact that each of these losses is competitive is MONUMENTAL in the history of this program. This level of mediocrity is much of the reason for both fan/student benevolence towards the program.
Whether CKW wins 5 or 6 (or a miracle 7) games, but will likely be in a bowl regardless, this is a gigantic leap forward for this program. I'm not going to dive into the rammifications of ruining the Michigan season in 2016.
For those who say fans shouldn't accept mediocrity, the data says that fans should be ecstatic to have back to back bowl appearances, and in relative terms to the program, it's a home run. If IU continues to invest in football, and it's coaches, this program will still continue to grow. The trajectory is not a straight line, nor is it parabolic, but rather steps with likely plateaus. If CKW can get back to back to back bowl appearances (even with 3 years of 6 wins), this is clear evidence of growth.
So when does the program grow? We've seen next level talent in recruiting at the RB, WR, OL, & QB play. Slowly those guys are becoming producers on the field in the NFL. Howard, Latham, & Spriggs are clear positives CKW can point to in recruiting and on the field success in the NFL. There are likely another half dozen guys on the roster that will be in the NFL in the future. My opinion is that IU should really see the recruiting classes being markedly better in the 2018 class.
This class would be a true indicator that the program is starting to grow. Some of these defensive freshman for 2017, and 2016 redshirts, are going to be good enough to replace guys currently playing this year. So the defense is only going to get better. The offense gains so many weapons back from injury. And regardless of the perceived tougher schedule, this will be a much better IU team next year.
Going to 3 straight bowls should be a strong enough of a trend to show recruits this improved program is legit. If CKW doesn't land better recruits he's not going to be able to get to the next hump; a consistent 7-9 win program; with an occasional flirt with 10-11 wins. Like CKW even said; the team currently lacks depth. The starters can compete with anybody in the country. The 2nd team is not there yet.
I apologize if this was too long winded for you.
- Indiana football has been around since the 1887 season, making 2016 the 130th year of Hoosier football.
- Out of 130 seasons IU has only been to a bowl 10 times. Indiana is 3-7 all time in bowl games.
- Indiana's best season historically is the 1945 season. Coached by Bo McMillan, Indiana went 9-0-1 and finished the season as the AP #4 team. This is the only time IU has won the conference outright.
- It has been 50 seasons since IU won the conference and went to the Rose Bowl. Again as the AP #4 team. This season was by far IU's best season, from a performance standpoint. IU beat #10 Arizona on the road, #7 Wisconsin, and #6 MSU on the road. The one regular season loss came at the hands of #5 Minnesota on the road. IU lost to #1 USC in the Rose Bowl.
- Indiana's best performing coach is Bill Mallory. He took IU to 6 bowls. He took IU to 3 straight bowls from 1986-1988, and back to back bowls in 1990-1991.
- The only two times in IU history to go to back to back bowls was under Coach Mallory.
- It has been 25 seasons since IU went to back to back bowls.
- Here is a breakdown of wins vs. ranked opponents over the past 50 seasons:
- 1977, #19 Minnesota
- 1978, #15 Washington
- 1979, #9 BYU (Holiday Bowl)
- 1987, @ #9 OSU, #20 Michigan
- 1993, @ #22 MSU
- 2000, #22 Minnesota
- 2001, @#21 MSU
- 2002, #23 Wisconsin
- 2004, @#23 Oregon, #23 Minnesota (both were #23 at the time of victory)
- 2006, #14 Iowa
- 2014, @ #18 Missouri
- 2016, #17 MSU
That is 14 total wins over a ranked opponent in 50 years of football. The highest being the #9 team twice in the 80s.
So to think IU should be beating top 10 teams because of a .500 record the year before; there is not a lot of data points suggesting that should happen. The fact that each of these losses is competitive is MONUMENTAL in the history of this program. This level of mediocrity is much of the reason for both fan/student benevolence towards the program.
Whether CKW wins 5 or 6 (or a miracle 7) games, but will likely be in a bowl regardless, this is a gigantic leap forward for this program. I'm not going to dive into the rammifications of ruining the Michigan season in 2016.
For those who say fans shouldn't accept mediocrity, the data says that fans should be ecstatic to have back to back bowl appearances, and in relative terms to the program, it's a home run. If IU continues to invest in football, and it's coaches, this program will still continue to grow. The trajectory is not a straight line, nor is it parabolic, but rather steps with likely plateaus. If CKW can get back to back to back bowl appearances (even with 3 years of 6 wins), this is clear evidence of growth.
So when does the program grow? We've seen next level talent in recruiting at the RB, WR, OL, & QB play. Slowly those guys are becoming producers on the field in the NFL. Howard, Latham, & Spriggs are clear positives CKW can point to in recruiting and on the field success in the NFL. There are likely another half dozen guys on the roster that will be in the NFL in the future. My opinion is that IU should really see the recruiting classes being markedly better in the 2018 class.
This class would be a true indicator that the program is starting to grow. Some of these defensive freshman for 2017, and 2016 redshirts, are going to be good enough to replace guys currently playing this year. So the defense is only going to get better. The offense gains so many weapons back from injury. And regardless of the perceived tougher schedule, this will be a much better IU team next year.
Going to 3 straight bowls should be a strong enough of a trend to show recruits this improved program is legit. If CKW doesn't land better recruits he's not going to be able to get to the next hump; a consistent 7-9 win program; with an occasional flirt with 10-11 wins. Like CKW even said; the team currently lacks depth. The starters can compete with anybody in the country. The 2nd team is not there yet.
I apologize if this was too long winded for you.
