The FSU game outcome was fairly predictable, IMHO. All of the intangibles pointed to the Seminoles running into a buzz saw in electric Assembly Hall. I had no doubt that we would play inspired basketball. I had no doubt that we would live at the line. When it's all said and done, it was a matter of two relatively evenly matched teams, but for one game the Hoosiers had a decided advantage..
Wisconsin is not anywhere near IU. IU is a much better team, and with their defensive lock down ability, improved offense and elite ability to get to the line, we are in a different class than the struggling Badgers.
Still, in this one the intangibles swing back to our opponent.
1. Shooting (road/home).
We have spent the last month draining shots in Assembly Hall. Now we take the show on the road.
Wisconsin has scored 63, 52, 50 and 54 points in their road games, all losses.
Wisconsin has scored 65, 83, 77 and 88 points in their Kohl Center games, all wins.
I expect the Badgers to struggle versus IU's tough D, especially if Phin plays. However, I expect IU to not shoot as well on the road, and UW to shoot better at home. Intangibles: edge to UW (while I expect the Hoosiers to best UW in FG% and 3PT% in this one, those stats will be closer due to the Kohl center)
2. Motivation: This game spells T-R-A-P game for the Hoosiers. During the last game IU had a HUGE advantage here. Wisky is dangerous, a wounded animal. The Hoosiers are flying high, and coming off a game that was game 7 like in intensity. Big Edge to UW
3. Officiating/Pace. Edge to UW. While IU will continue to live at the line this year, I do not expect to see it as lopsided as Tuesday. We attempted THIRTY-EIGHT FTs to FSU's 16. Additionally, as long as UW keeps the crowd in this one, the crowd can help prevent IU from dictating pace.
4. Confidence. IF IU can jump out to a big lead, and take the crowd out of it, UW could fold. They have to be questioning things. edge to IU
All said, I expect a 71-61 W, on the way to a 12-1 or 13-0 start. If IU could win at IL last year on the way to a 12-2 start, I expect our much improved team should prevail. It certainly helps that defense travels. I actually think that we are only scratching the surface of what we can be defensively. Phin sets the pace for the entire D with his on ball annoying persistence. If we can get him back into the lineup for this one, it will really help us defensively. It also gives us the flexibility of protecting AD defensively (he has played well, but NOT on D).
Things will get tougher in January, but I am optimistic that we can close 2019 out as undefeated. There is nothing that has occurred so far this year to adjust my pre-season expectations of top 4 in the conference with a similar NCAA seed come March.
Wisconsin is not anywhere near IU. IU is a much better team, and with their defensive lock down ability, improved offense and elite ability to get to the line, we are in a different class than the struggling Badgers.
Still, in this one the intangibles swing back to our opponent.
1. Shooting (road/home).
We have spent the last month draining shots in Assembly Hall. Now we take the show on the road.
Wisconsin has scored 63, 52, 50 and 54 points in their road games, all losses.
Wisconsin has scored 65, 83, 77 and 88 points in their Kohl Center games, all wins.
I expect the Badgers to struggle versus IU's tough D, especially if Phin plays. However, I expect IU to not shoot as well on the road, and UW to shoot better at home. Intangibles: edge to UW (while I expect the Hoosiers to best UW in FG% and 3PT% in this one, those stats will be closer due to the Kohl center)
2. Motivation: This game spells T-R-A-P game for the Hoosiers. During the last game IU had a HUGE advantage here. Wisky is dangerous, a wounded animal. The Hoosiers are flying high, and coming off a game that was game 7 like in intensity. Big Edge to UW
3. Officiating/Pace. Edge to UW. While IU will continue to live at the line this year, I do not expect to see it as lopsided as Tuesday. We attempted THIRTY-EIGHT FTs to FSU's 16. Additionally, as long as UW keeps the crowd in this one, the crowd can help prevent IU from dictating pace.
4. Confidence. IF IU can jump out to a big lead, and take the crowd out of it, UW could fold. They have to be questioning things. edge to IU
All said, I expect a 71-61 W, on the way to a 12-1 or 13-0 start. If IU could win at IL last year on the way to a 12-2 start, I expect our much improved team should prevail. It certainly helps that defense travels. I actually think that we are only scratching the surface of what we can be defensively. Phin sets the pace for the entire D with his on ball annoying persistence. If we can get him back into the lineup for this one, it will really help us defensively. It also gives us the flexibility of protecting AD defensively (he has played well, but NOT on D).
Things will get tougher in January, but I am optimistic that we can close 2019 out as undefeated. There is nothing that has occurred so far this year to adjust my pre-season expectations of top 4 in the conference with a similar NCAA seed come March.
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