All they know how to do is bash Trump. But but but Joe is running the country so well...LMAO what an absolute joke and to think they voted for him. A serial lying plagiarist, career failure of a politician and dad, and remind me never to move to Delaware. That must be like living in a sardine can smeared with mustard. For Gods sakes he even stole Trumps speech during the first SOTU which had his base semi hard until they woke up the next day and read the
I saw where the old boy who has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections, including Trumps win in 2016, has made some pretty cryptic comments regarding the 2024 election. While he hasn’t said outright that Biden will win, he has said that a lot would have to go wrong for him to lose.
He’ll make his official prediction in August.
I think the point is that polls and approval ratings mean almost nothing at this point.
The professor on his famous 13 ‘keys’ to the White House, a method for predicting election results that’s been right nine times out of 10
www.theguardian.com
Here is Prof Lichtman, who Hoopsdoc was referencing.
I think Biden is much more popular with Dem voters overall than with the posters on this board. I also think that the Dems benefit not only on the issue of "incumbency" which Lichtman points out, but also in the area of fundraising. Having the most $$ available is a huge advantage not only in media/advertising but in organization/groundgame. In MI,PA and WI combined Biden has opened 98 field offices and I'm not sure Trump has a single one. That allows for the targeting of prosepective voters, a campaign to win them over and most importantly getting them to vote.
That's why the turnout numbers in PA (where Biden has 24 offices) is so key in a state where both candidates despeartely need to win...
For example PA just held their primary. Both Biden and Trump have sewn up their respective nominations and won handily. But both also faced on the ballot opposition from candidates who have dropped out at least a month ago Phillips and Haley. Biden and Phillips combined for 1,017,137 votes while Trump Haley combined for 950,498. For perspective,by himself Biden got 947,815 votes, less than 3000 than Trump Haley combined...
So more Dems voted, and Biden got 90% of the Dem vote. Trump got 82% of the GOP vote, but Haley got 16% at nearly 160,000 votes. And remember that while both Phillips and Haley got votes via early/mail votes, Dems are much more predsiposed to those methods. So I don't have any conclusive evidence, but my guess is that Haley got proportionately more votes on election day than Phillips did.
That means Trump has a Haley problem, and a certain (as yet undetermined ) proprtion of those Haley voters are not going to ever vote for Trump. At this point let's call them undecided. Many of them have avisceral dislike for Trump. Check out this 6 woman focus group from NC...
Two of these women voted for Trump in 2020, but now characterize themselves as undecided. My guess is those two along with at least 1 or 2 of the other 4 are "Haley voters". All 6 of them say that they believe Trump should be on trial and that they will never vote for him if he's convicted. On top of those problems, another problem for Trump is that this is NC and this is a state he needs.
But I venture to say none of these women are going to vote for Mark Robinson, and they already don't like Trump. Some of them will likely end up voting for Biden, rather than split their ballots and make the effort to vote for Trump, when they already are not going to vote for Robinson (for Gov)... Robinson will defintiely be a factor in a state this close. Whether it gives Biden an upset win in the closest Trump state in 2020 remains to be seen...
nypost.com
