November 19, 2022 | DaddyHooser | iufb.net
Number Crunch
SP+ – MSU 58, IU 92
CBS Sports 131 – MSU 64, IU 96
ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor – MSU 84%
SP+ Win Probability – MSU 80%
SP+ Projected Score – MSU 37 – IU 23
ESPN Pick Center Projected Score – MSU 29 – IU 18.5
IU Scoring Offense 22.4 (102nd) vs MSU Scoring Defense 25.5 (61st)
MSU Scoring Offense 24.6 (90th) vs IU Scoring Defense 34.6 (119th)
IU Rush Offense 85.8 (127th) vs MSU Rush Defense 172.6 (97th)
MSU Rush Offense 108.9 (115th) vs IU Rush Defense 176.1 (100th)
IU PFF Run 73.5 (116th) & Run Blk 46.0 (124th) v MSU PFF Run D 71.0 (84th)
MSU PFF Run 77.1 (96th) & Run Blk 72.9 (23rd) v IU PFF Run D 76.0 (58th)
IU Pass Offense 237.2 (60th) vs MSU Pass Defense 257.4 (105th)
MSU Pass Offense 235.3 (63rd) vs IU Pass Defense 270.2 (115th)
IU PFF Pass 52.1 (119th) vs MSU PFF Coverage 57.1 (120th)
MSU PFF Pass 73 (55th) vs IU PFF Coverage 50.9 (125th)
IU Pass Efficiency 105.95 (123rd) vs MSU Pass Efficiency D 153.19 (118th)
MSU Pass Efficiency 138.24 (57th) vs IU Pass Efficiency D 151.99 (120th)
Turnover Margin – IU -5, MSU even
IU Sacks 16.5 / 1.65 (103rd) vs MSU Sacks Allowed 15 / 1.5 (37th)
MSU Sacks 23 / 2.3 (57th) vs IU Sacks Allowed 32 / 3.2 (113th)
IU TFLs 54.5 / 5.4 (79th) vs MSU TFLs Allowed 46 / 4.6 (34th)
MSU TFLs 61 / 6.1 (50th) vs IU TFLs Allowed 84 / 8.4 (124th)
IU Red Zone Offense .778 (105th) vs MSU Red Zone Defense .821 (52nd)
MSU Red Zone Offense .733 (122nd) vs IU Red Zone Defense .804 (39th)
MSU Key Players
Jr QB Payton Thorne – 2,152 yds, 63.2%, 16 TDs, 9 INTs
So RB Jalen Berger – 550 yds, 4.6 avg, 6 TDs
So WR Keon Coleman – 42 rec, 600 yds, 14.3 ypc, 6 TDs
Sr T Jarrett Horst – PFF overall grade 80.8, RBLK 88.5, PBLK 72.5
So LB Cal Haladay – 99 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 FF
Sr LB Jacoby Windmon – 49 Tackles, 5.5 sacks, 6 FF, 1 INT
So CB Charles Brantley – 6 PD, 1 INT, 1 TD, 46 Tackles, 1 Sack
So DL Simeon Barrow Jr. – PFF overall grade 77.4, RDEF 75.7, PRSH 71.0
Story Lines
Michigan State comes in having won 3 or their last 4 ball games and with an overall record of 5-5. The Spartans will be hoping to get this one because in all likelihood they will need it to get to Bowl eligibility. MSU travels to Penn State next weekend to round out the regular season and should they lose to Indiana that would not be an easy task.
Indiana on the other hand comes in having lost 7 straight and with a combined record of 5-17 since the beginning of 2021. The Hoosiers badly need a win to stop the bleeding. Claiming the Old Brass Spittoon and grabbing their 4th win of the year would go a long way toward doing just that.
Indiana Head Coach Tom Allen hasn’t announce who the starting quarterback will be today but reading the situation most agree that it will likely be Sophomore Dexter Williams II. If this is indeed the case Williams will basically be auditioning for 2022.
The weather will be cold with the forecasted temperature at kickoff at about 23 degrees. There is a decent chance of both snow and winds upwards of 20 mph. This of course could affect both the passing and the kicking game.
Indiana did win their previous visit to East Lansing, with Michael Penix Jr. leading the Hoosiers to a 24-0 victory in 2020.
Keys to the Game
It is striking because these two teams mirror each other in a lot of ways. Both teams have struggled although Indiana’s difficulties are more pronounced and Michigan State seems to be trending in a better direction.
At this point it goes without saying that the Indiana Offensive Line will need to play better if Indiana is to have a chance. IU will need to hold Michigan State to no more than 3 or 4 sacks and to average north of 4.0 yards per carry, otherwise it could be another long day.
If Dexter’s ability to scramble opens up other aspects of IU’s running game that would be a welcomed sight to see. Michigan State allows over 170 rushing yards per game so it shouldn’t be an impossible task. MSU seems to struggle with smaller / shiftier backs on the perimeter so that could be an area IU looks to attack with Shaun Shivers and Jaylin Lucas.
Indiana receivers will need to get open against this Spartan Secondary. MSU’s Pass Defense is 105th in FBS in terms of yards allowed so there should be opportunities for Emery Simmons, Andison Coby, AJ Barner and Donaven McCulley. McCulley has almost a year of experience under his belt at his new position and seems due for a breakout game any time now.
On paper Indiana should be able to keep MSU’s run game in check which could allow them to do more things with coverage on the back end.
Indiana’s secondary has got to have a good day. We know these guys can defend because we’ve seen them do it in the past. If they have their best day of the season Indiana will have a shot.
Turnovers and Special Teams will be an X-factor as they always are.
Prediction
I can make a case for Indiana keeping this one interesting all the way to the end, but we just haven’t seen enough out of the Hoosiers in the last 7 weeks to say that they will be able to pull this one off on the road. Spartans by a tudder, 31-24.
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Number Crunch
SP+ – MSU 58, IU 92
CBS Sports 131 – MSU 64, IU 96
ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor – MSU 84%
SP+ Win Probability – MSU 80%
SP+ Projected Score – MSU 37 – IU 23
ESPN Pick Center Projected Score – MSU 29 – IU 18.5
IU Scoring Offense 22.4 (102nd) vs MSU Scoring Defense 25.5 (61st)
MSU Scoring Offense 24.6 (90th) vs IU Scoring Defense 34.6 (119th)
IU Rush Offense 85.8 (127th) vs MSU Rush Defense 172.6 (97th)
MSU Rush Offense 108.9 (115th) vs IU Rush Defense 176.1 (100th)
IU PFF Run 73.5 (116th) & Run Blk 46.0 (124th) v MSU PFF Run D 71.0 (84th)
MSU PFF Run 77.1 (96th) & Run Blk 72.9 (23rd) v IU PFF Run D 76.0 (58th)
IU Pass Offense 237.2 (60th) vs MSU Pass Defense 257.4 (105th)
MSU Pass Offense 235.3 (63rd) vs IU Pass Defense 270.2 (115th)
IU PFF Pass 52.1 (119th) vs MSU PFF Coverage 57.1 (120th)
MSU PFF Pass 73 (55th) vs IU PFF Coverage 50.9 (125th)
IU Pass Efficiency 105.95 (123rd) vs MSU Pass Efficiency D 153.19 (118th)
MSU Pass Efficiency 138.24 (57th) vs IU Pass Efficiency D 151.99 (120th)
Turnover Margin – IU -5, MSU even
IU Sacks 16.5 / 1.65 (103rd) vs MSU Sacks Allowed 15 / 1.5 (37th)
MSU Sacks 23 / 2.3 (57th) vs IU Sacks Allowed 32 / 3.2 (113th)
IU TFLs 54.5 / 5.4 (79th) vs MSU TFLs Allowed 46 / 4.6 (34th)
MSU TFLs 61 / 6.1 (50th) vs IU TFLs Allowed 84 / 8.4 (124th)
IU Red Zone Offense .778 (105th) vs MSU Red Zone Defense .821 (52nd)
MSU Red Zone Offense .733 (122nd) vs IU Red Zone Defense .804 (39th)
MSU Key Players
Jr QB Payton Thorne – 2,152 yds, 63.2%, 16 TDs, 9 INTs
So RB Jalen Berger – 550 yds, 4.6 avg, 6 TDs
So WR Keon Coleman – 42 rec, 600 yds, 14.3 ypc, 6 TDs
Sr T Jarrett Horst – PFF overall grade 80.8, RBLK 88.5, PBLK 72.5
So LB Cal Haladay – 99 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 FF
Sr LB Jacoby Windmon – 49 Tackles, 5.5 sacks, 6 FF, 1 INT
So CB Charles Brantley – 6 PD, 1 INT, 1 TD, 46 Tackles, 1 Sack
So DL Simeon Barrow Jr. – PFF overall grade 77.4, RDEF 75.7, PRSH 71.0
Story Lines
Michigan State comes in having won 3 or their last 4 ball games and with an overall record of 5-5. The Spartans will be hoping to get this one because in all likelihood they will need it to get to Bowl eligibility. MSU travels to Penn State next weekend to round out the regular season and should they lose to Indiana that would not be an easy task.
Indiana on the other hand comes in having lost 7 straight and with a combined record of 5-17 since the beginning of 2021. The Hoosiers badly need a win to stop the bleeding. Claiming the Old Brass Spittoon and grabbing their 4th win of the year would go a long way toward doing just that.
Indiana Head Coach Tom Allen hasn’t announce who the starting quarterback will be today but reading the situation most agree that it will likely be Sophomore Dexter Williams II. If this is indeed the case Williams will basically be auditioning for 2022.
The weather will be cold with the forecasted temperature at kickoff at about 23 degrees. There is a decent chance of both snow and winds upwards of 20 mph. This of course could affect both the passing and the kicking game.
Indiana did win their previous visit to East Lansing, with Michael Penix Jr. leading the Hoosiers to a 24-0 victory in 2020.
Keys to the Game
It is striking because these two teams mirror each other in a lot of ways. Both teams have struggled although Indiana’s difficulties are more pronounced and Michigan State seems to be trending in a better direction.
At this point it goes without saying that the Indiana Offensive Line will need to play better if Indiana is to have a chance. IU will need to hold Michigan State to no more than 3 or 4 sacks and to average north of 4.0 yards per carry, otherwise it could be another long day.
If Dexter’s ability to scramble opens up other aspects of IU’s running game that would be a welcomed sight to see. Michigan State allows over 170 rushing yards per game so it shouldn’t be an impossible task. MSU seems to struggle with smaller / shiftier backs on the perimeter so that could be an area IU looks to attack with Shaun Shivers and Jaylin Lucas.
Indiana receivers will need to get open against this Spartan Secondary. MSU’s Pass Defense is 105th in FBS in terms of yards allowed so there should be opportunities for Emery Simmons, Andison Coby, AJ Barner and Donaven McCulley. McCulley has almost a year of experience under his belt at his new position and seems due for a breakout game any time now.
On paper Indiana should be able to keep MSU’s run game in check which could allow them to do more things with coverage on the back end.
Indiana’s secondary has got to have a good day. We know these guys can defend because we’ve seen them do it in the past. If they have their best day of the season Indiana will have a shot.
Turnovers and Special Teams will be an X-factor as they always are.
Prediction
I can make a case for Indiana keeping this one interesting all the way to the end, but we just haven’t seen enough out of the Hoosiers in the last 7 weeks to say that they will be able to pull this one off on the road. Spartans by a tudder, 31-24.
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