Helpful Outcomes

[daddyhoosier]

So the following outcomes help our cause as far as making the CFB Playoff. We could still get in as is but any of the below would bolster our chances. I sorted them by most likely to least likely to occur:

Minnesota beat Penn State

Need Miami to beat Syracuse next week (81%), then beat SMU in the ACC Championship - would likely assure only one ACC bid

78% - Texas A&M loss to Texas
✅ - Texas A&M loss to Auburn
33% - Notre Dame loss to USC
22% - Tennessee loss to Vanderbilt
✅ Alabama loss to Oklahoma
Notre Dame loss to Army
10% - Georgia loss to Georgia Tech
9% - Alabama loss to Auburn
7% - Penn St loss to Maryland

I assess that the Big XII will only have one team so it doesn't really matter who. I think Arizona State might be playing the best right now. I don't think it matters who the highest ranked Group of 5 Conference Champion is - Boise St, Army, Tulane, UNLV, Louisiana, Colorado St are the teams that are still alive IMO. The two teams who make the SEC Championship game will be in, so we need one of the two-loss teams who doesn't make the SEC championship game to lose - or at least it would make life easier if they did. I included A&M because that would prevent them from jumping us.

I'm probably missing something here so be sure to let me know if I did.

 

[daddyhoosier]

Bama & A&M both losing...👀👀

 

[IUFreak]

Auburn is in the process of pissing it away.

 

[Hatchets7times]

We got alot of help today..
Indiana isn't dropping out of the CFP this week..

 

[daddyhoosier]

A&M back in front but hopefully Texas will put them out of their misery next week.

I've seen a couple people mention Clemson jumping ahead of us. Miami already has the tie-breaker with them so that would require a Canes loss to Syracuse next week. So it's true Clemson could jump us if they beat a ranked South Carolina and SMU but I think we would jump Miami in that (somewhat unlikely) scenario so it would be a wash in my estimation.

 

[dr.jb]

We got alot of help today..
Indiana isn't dropping out of the CFP this week..

we did

Auburn and Minnesota gagging at the end hurt though

 

[SRIV94]

we did

Auburn and Minnesota gagging at the end hurt though

AUB hasn’t completely gagged yet.

And PSU would merit a bid over us anyway off their SoS and the wins over ILL and WVU. So MINN gagging didn’t hurt us that much.

 

[dr.jb]

AUB hasn’t completely gagged yet.

And PSU would merit a bid over us anyway off their SoS and the wins over ILL and WVU. So MINN gagging didn’t hurt us that much.

probably but you never know

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

Texas A&M loses to fall to 8-3. Auburn, the 14th place team in the 16-team SEC, had won 1 conference game all year.

 

[OpenWheels]

A&M lost on the road, in 2 OT, in a tough environment, to an SEC name team, after being down 21-0.

So all those factors make it a good loss. They should move up.
,

 

[daddyhoosier]

Texas A&M loses to fall to 8-3. Auburn, the 14th place team in the 16-team SEC, had won 1 conference game all year.

And they will most likely lose to Texas next week. We can pretty much remove them from all consideration.