Looking at what the teams in the bottom of the AP Poll did this week, as well as those near the top of the others receiving votes, it would not be a surprise to see IU crack the poll this week. Team by team:
18. Oklahoma- loss @ #16 West Virginia 65-86, win v. Oklahoma State, 82-65. May drop, but not likely out of poll.
19. Arkansas- loss @ Tennessee 69-74, loss v. Ole Miss 82-96. Likely to fall out of poll.
20. Texas- win v. #16 West Virginia 77-50. Likely to rise in the poll.
21. Seton Hall- loss v. Butler 75-79 (OT). Will drop, I would guess out of poll.
22. Baylor- win v. #11 Iowa State 74-73, loss @ Kansas State 61-63. Probably at least stay in poll.
23. Northern Iowa- win @ Bradley 63-52, win v. Missouri State 60-46. Likely to rise.
24. Oklahoma State- loss @ #9 Kansas 57-67, loss @ #18 Oklahoma 65-82. Likely to fall out of poll.
25. Wyoming- loss v. San Diego State 52-60, win @ Fresno St 70-65 (3OT). Likely to fall out of poll.
By my count, before looking at the contenders, we should see at three teams fall out of the poll, with a fourth a decent possibility, and a fifth a longshot. Let's look at the others receiving votes (vote total in parentheses):
Ohio State (70)- win v Michigan 71-52, loss @Iowa 67-76.
Michigan State (67)- loss @ #14 Maryland 59-75
Dayton (55)- win v. LaSalle 61-50, win v. St. Louis 61-45
Providence (17)- loss v. St. Johns 70-83, win @Creighton 74-65
Indiana (15)- win v. Penn State 76-73, win @Illinois 80-74
LSU (12)- win @Ole Miss 75-71, loss v. Texas A&M 64-67
That puts three of the four teams ahead of IU in the others receiving votes with a loss this week, as well as the team directly behind IU. Having looked at the others receiving votes, I'll predict that the last four in and the first three out will be (in order)
22. Dayton
23. Michigan State
24. Arkansas
25. Indiana
Oklahoma State
Seton Hall
Ohio State
(Dayton, Michigan State, IU join; Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, Wyoming fall out)
And before I get jumped on, I'm not claiming the season will be a success if we crack the poll this week. Or that we should aspire to be a team whose goal is to sneak into the poll in mid-January. I'm simply looking at the votes from last week, in comparison to what those teams did, and guessing that IU will be ranked at the bottom of the Top 25.
18. Oklahoma- loss @ #16 West Virginia 65-86, win v. Oklahoma State, 82-65. May drop, but not likely out of poll.
19. Arkansas- loss @ Tennessee 69-74, loss v. Ole Miss 82-96. Likely to fall out of poll.
20. Texas- win v. #16 West Virginia 77-50. Likely to rise in the poll.
21. Seton Hall- loss v. Butler 75-79 (OT). Will drop, I would guess out of poll.
22. Baylor- win v. #11 Iowa State 74-73, loss @ Kansas State 61-63. Probably at least stay in poll.
23. Northern Iowa- win @ Bradley 63-52, win v. Missouri State 60-46. Likely to rise.
24. Oklahoma State- loss @ #9 Kansas 57-67, loss @ #18 Oklahoma 65-82. Likely to fall out of poll.
25. Wyoming- loss v. San Diego State 52-60, win @ Fresno St 70-65 (3OT). Likely to fall out of poll.
By my count, before looking at the contenders, we should see at three teams fall out of the poll, with a fourth a decent possibility, and a fifth a longshot. Let's look at the others receiving votes (vote total in parentheses):
Ohio State (70)- win v Michigan 71-52, loss @Iowa 67-76.
Michigan State (67)- loss @ #14 Maryland 59-75
Dayton (55)- win v. LaSalle 61-50, win v. St. Louis 61-45
Providence (17)- loss v. St. Johns 70-83, win @Creighton 74-65
Indiana (15)- win v. Penn State 76-73, win @Illinois 80-74
LSU (12)- win @Ole Miss 75-71, loss v. Texas A&M 64-67
That puts three of the four teams ahead of IU in the others receiving votes with a loss this week, as well as the team directly behind IU. Having looked at the others receiving votes, I'll predict that the last four in and the first three out will be (in order)
22. Dayton
23. Michigan State
24. Arkansas
25. Indiana
Oklahoma State
Seton Hall
Ohio State
(Dayton, Michigan State, IU join; Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, Wyoming fall out)
And before I get jumped on, I'm not claiming the season will be a success if we crack the poll this week. Or that we should aspire to be a team whose goal is to sneak into the poll in mid-January. I'm simply looking at the votes from last week, in comparison to what those teams did, and guessing that IU will be ranked at the bottom of the Top 25.
