Experience angle revisited

[Paterfamilias]

No doubt there’s a correlation. But I wouldn’t say a team that shoots 35% is a good 3pt shooting team and one that shoots 34.9% isn’t. I’m just not sure the correlation is strong enough to make that much of a difference.

To some degree, you're most certainly right! The correlation has a low r-sq value, so it's not a tight correlation to be sure. UCLA and UK were the best three point shooting teams among the bottom 15 teams in experience at 35.5% and 35.4% respectively. That said, there was some wild variance among the those outside of the bottom segments. No guarantees!

The fact that there were no really good 3pt shooting teams among the less experienced teams does seem to confirm my suspicion that you probably shouldn't judge a kids outside shooting stroke based solely on his freshman stats. I think, while I'm vacationing, I'll check this by looking at the Big Ten over the last 10 years and see how kids frosh %'s compare to those of the rest of their career. There are some frosh that come in shooting it well, like Wieskamp, Brazdeikas(sp?), Ayala, Wiggins etc. So perhaps, when I dig deeper, I'll find that I'm overthinking the value of experience as related to outside shooting%, but my initial look at the team %'s make me think that I'm on the right track here. Either way, I enjoy the research and don't care to report when I turn out to be mistaken... I'm wrong a lot, but I try not to stay wrong

 

[minneman]

To some degree, you're most certainly right! The correlation has a low r-sq value, so it's not a tight correlation to be sure. UCLA and UK were the best three point shooting teams among the bottom 15 teams in experience at 35.5% and 35.4% respectively. That said, there was some wild variance among the those outside of the bottom segments. No guarantees!

The fact that there were no really good 3pt shooting teams among the less experienced teams does seem to confirm my suspicion that you probably shouldn't judge a kids outside shooting stroke based solely on his freshman stats. I think, while I'm vacationing, I'll check this by looking at the Big Ten over the last 10 years and see how kids frosh %'s compare to those of the rest of their career. There are some frosh that come in shooting it well, like Wieskamp, Brazdeikas(sp?), Ayala, Wiggins etc. So perhaps, when I dig deeper, I'll find that I'm overthinking the value of experience as related to outside shooting%, but my initial look at the team %'s make me think that I'm on the right track here. Either way, I enjoy the research and don't care to report when I turn out to be mistaken... I'm wrong a lot, but I try not to stay wrong

I think that a young team vs an individual young player may show different results. A young team probably isn't as good at getting good looks as experienced teams so the shooting percentages would go down. A young player on an otherwise experienced team might still shoot well because he would have the advantage of good looks. A young player on a young team would shoot poorly vs the rest of their career.

That's my hypothesis, at least. I'm curious of what you'll find.