Deep Seek

[Marvin the Martian]

So it appears the Chinese have at least caught us in AI technology and are able to provide it far cheaper and spending a hundredth, maybe a thousandth, of what we spend. They would be using older, far less powerful non-Taiwanese chips. So of course the market is freaking out. Who wanted to retire this year anyway.

The question I have, does anyone know if we can trust what Deep Seek is saying? For example, what if their program simply calls a backdoor they have in ChatGPT? That would be cheaper and not require first line chips, but it isn't a game changer. Could the corporate investment have been small but the Chinese government's investment be huge?

It makes me think about quantum computing. Obviously, we don't know exactly where China is with QC. If what Deep Seek has done is true, they may be further than we think. This raises a problem. All of our computer security is very breakable by more much more advanced QC than we have today. That would be all of our banks, and our digital coins. Even I don't want to see China grab all the bitcoin in the world.

It seems doubtless we have years before QC reaches that point. Estimates I have seen suggest 10 years, but we should be more aggressive in hardening our encryption. It may well be we have 6 years and not 10. It is estimated it will take 2000 qubits to break our encryption today and we are at about 150. The thing is, that assumes China isn't hiding a lead and we don't know if there will be a point that progression becomes exponential.

Having worked on Y2K projects that were delayed until the 11th hour, that isn't the way to successfully tackle issues like this. It isn't going to magically go away.

 

[Baller23Boogie]

I've had a rough day, and trying to understand what Marv wrote, which I'm more then sure he knows what he's talking about, is way beyond my comprehension at this point.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I've had a rough day, and trying to understand what Marv wrote, which I'm more then sure he knows what he's talking about, is way beyond my comprehension at this point.

Yeah, ngl…when he mentioned qubits, this is the image I got in my mind:

 

[hookyIU1990]

From what little I've read in the industry rags today, the consensus is that Deepseek's claim is BS. However, everyone is wondering if US tech is overspending on their AI research and builds. The selloffs are due to the uncertainty that the claims have introduced into the market, and the market loathes uncertainty. This will ultimately come out in the wash.

Again, small sample size.

 

[mcmurtry66]

So it appears the Chinese have at least caught us in AI technology and are able to provide it far cheaper and spending a hundredth, maybe a thousandth, of what we spend. They would be using older, far less powerful non-Taiwanese chips. So of course the market is freaking out. Who wanted to retire this year anyway.

The question I have, does anyone know if we can trust what Deep Seek is saying? For example, what if their program simply calls a backdoor they have in ChatGPT? That would be cheaper and not require first line chips, but it isn't a game changer. Could the corporate investment have been small but the Chinese government's investment be huge?

It makes me think about quantum computing. Obviously, we don't know exactly where China is with QC. If what Deep Seek has done is true, they may be further than we think. This raises a problem. All of our computer security is very breakable by more much more advanced QC than we have today. That would be all of our banks, and our digital coins. Even I don't want to see China grab all the bitcoin in the world.

It seems doubtless we have years before QC reaches that point. Estimates I have seen suggest 10 years, but we should be more aggressive in hardening our encryption. It may well be we have 6 years and not 10. It is estimated it will take 2000 qubits to break our encryption today and we are at about 150. The thing is, that assumes China isn't hiding a lead and we don't know if there will be a point that progression becomes exponential.

Having worked on Y2K projects that were delayed until the 11th hour, that isn't the way to successfully tackle issues like this. It isn't going to magically go away.

Oh man China is lapping us huh

Why China doesn't do WFH - The ICG

Written by ICG member Simon Shaw, Ignite Qualitative Research Consultancy While working from home has become the ‘new normal’ in the West, it most certainly has not in China. Most […]

theicg.co.uk

 

[twenty02]

So it appears the Chinese have at least caught us in AI technology and are able to provide it far cheaper and spending a hundredth, maybe a thousandth, of what we spend. They would be using older, far less powerful non-Taiwanese chips. So of course the market is freaking out. Who wanted to retire this year anyway.

The question I have, does anyone know if we can trust what Deep Seek is saying? For example, what if their program simply calls a backdoor they have in ChatGPT? That would be cheaper and not require first line chips, but it isn't a game changer. Could the corporate investment have been small but the Chinese government's investment be huge?

It makes me think about quantum computing. Obviously, we don't know exactly where China is with QC. If what Deep Seek has done is true, they may be further than we think. This raises a problem. All of our computer security is very breakable by more much more advanced QC than we have today. That would be all of our banks, and our digital coins. Even I don't want to see China grab all the bitcoin in the world.

It seems doubtless we have years before QC reaches that point. Estimates I have seen suggest 10 years, but we should be more aggressive in hardening our encryption. It may well be we have 6 years and not 10. It is estimated it will take 2000 qubits to break our encryption today and we are at about 150. The thing is, that assumes China isn't hiding a lead and we don't know if there will be a point that progression becomes exponential.

Having worked on Y2K projects that were delayed until the 11th hour, that isn't the way to successfully tackle issues like this. It isn't going to magically go away.

The NVDA profit margins were never going to hold long term. At some point the chickens come home to roost, when a stock price gets so far ahead of the current reality. Don't know if this will be the start or just a hiccup

 

[snarlcakes]

As Nvidia dropped like a rock it finally dawned on me what all those silly Bitcoiners were saying about AI not being compatible with our credit based system. If AI moves too quickly, what happens to the stock market when companies have declining revenues? What happens to housing prices when 10 robots can build houses 10 times quicker for 1/10 the price? How much money would they need to print to keep the system going? Lastly, the most important question, what would you want to store your wealth in, in that type of scenario?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

The NVDA profit margins were never going to hold long term. At some point the chickens come home to roost, when a stock price gets so far ahead of the current reality. Don't know if this will be the start or just a hiccup

That is all true, but it isn't to me the lead. How did China develop a comparable system for basically 1/1000th of what we are pouring in? That is assuming they have. I am pretty skeptical.

One of our biggest issues is power for these computers. Our AI companies are basically buying nuclear power plants to power their work. How is China doing it?

It just seems more and more likely we aren't getting the full story.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

As Nvidia dropped like a rock it finally dawned on me what all those silly Bitcoiners were saying about AI not being compatible with our credit based system. If AI moves too quickly, what happens to the stock market when companies have declining revenues? What happens to housing prices when 10 robots can build houses 10 times quicker for 1/10 the price? How much money would they need to print to keep the system going? Lastly, the most important question, what would you want to store your wealth in, in that type of scenario?

View embedded media

 

[hookyIU1990]

One of our biggest issues is power for these computers. Our AI companies are basically buying nuclear power plants to power their work. How is China doing it?

They're burning coal, but that's for a different thread.

 

[snarlcakes]

No, just dense. It took me way too long to figure it out.

 

[twenty02]

That is all true, but it isn't to me the lead. How did China develop a comparable system for basically 1/1000th of what we are pouring in? That is assuming they have. I am pretty skeptical.

One of our biggest issues is power for these computers. Our AI companies are basically buying nuclear power plants to power their work. How is China doing it?

It just seems more and more likely we aren't getting the full story.

I have no clue. Other than the code is open source so I'm sure we'll get more input soon enough

 

[Marvin the Martian]

They're burning coal, but that's for a different thread.

Yes, but it is a LOT of coal for a country fighting to keep power on everywhere. Though they have scored improvements.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

That is all true, but it isn't to me the lead. How did China develop a comparable system for basically 1/1000th of what we are pouring in? That is assuming they have. I am pretty skeptical.

One of our biggest issues is power for these computers. Our AI companies are basically buying nuclear power plants to power their work. How is China doing it?

It just seems more and more likely we aren't getting the full story.

"lede"

 

[larsIU]

From what little I've read in the industry rags today, the consensus is that Deepseek's claim is BS. However, everyone is wondering if US tech is overspending on their AI research and builds. The selloffs are due to the uncertainty that the claims have introduced into the market, and the market loathes uncertainty. This will ultimately come out in the wash.

Again, small sample size.

Are the tech stocks overvalued? Yes. By how much? Cringe. Oh well, I've got at least 10 years before retirement.

I heard more than a few people this morning on Bloomberg who are in the "trust but verify" stage of believing anything coming out of China.

Also, Apple and Microsoft are like "If true, why is this bad?". For them they probably just see cost savings.

 

[twenty02]

Are the tech stocks overvalued? Yes. By how much? Cringe. Oh well, I've got at least 10 years before retirement.

I heard more than a few people this morning on Bloomberg who are in the "trust but verify" stage of believing anything coming out of China.

Also, Apple and Microsoft are like "If true, why is this bad?". For them they probably just see cost savings.

Bad for the chip makers, etc... If you need exponentially less computing power to achieve 'good enough' results. Definitely good for those the firms spending a shit load of money on this currently.

 

[larsIU]

Bad for the chip makers, etc... If you need exponentially less computing power to achieve 'good enough' results. Definitely good for those the firms spending a shit load of money on this currently.

I've heard the "breakthrough" is clever but not groundbreaking.

We shall see.

 

[hookyIU1990]

Are the tech stocks overvalued? Yes. By how much? Cringe. At least I've got at least 10 years before retirement.

I heard more than a few people this morning on Bloomberg who are in the "trust but verify" stage of believing anything coming out of China.

Also, Apple and Microsoft are like "If true, why is this bad?". For them they probably just see cost savings.

That's why I've recently put everything into Bitcoin...

Deepseek has restricted signups to Chinese phone numbers.

MSN

MSN

Nvidia is saying you still need a considerable amount of GPUs to run it.

 

[larsIU]

That's why I've recently put everything into Bitcoin...

Deepseek has restricted signups to Chinese phone numbers.

MSN

MSN

Nvidia is saying you still need a considerable amount of GPUs to run it.

Yeah, the people that are smarter than me on Bloomberg advised US tech companies capex expenditures were insanely high which probably increase the valuation of the stock/company, etc etc and that the "breakthrough" was cool but it will be a while before results are truly in. HOwever, it does appear as though the Chinese have figured out how to do something for way cheaper than we currently do it.

Moore's law....if you squint hard enough.

 

[snarlcakes]

That's why I've recently put everything into Bitcoin...

 

[hookyIU1990]

Yeah, the people that are smarter than me on Bloomberg advised US tech companies capex expenditures were insanely high which probably increase the valuation of the stock/company, etc etc but that they "breakthrough" was cool but it will be a while before results are truly in. HOwever, it does appear as though the Chinese have figured out how to do something for way cheaper than we currently do it.

Moore's law....if you squint hard enough.

They're supposedly using lower end Nvidia chips. They're restricted from the high end stuff because they'll rip it off.

However, Wang at ScaleAI is saying they may have up to 50k of high end chips but can't talk about it because they've circumvented export controls to get them.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/scale-ai-ceo-warns-chinas-163446995.html

 

[Marvin the Martian]

They're supposedly using lower end Nvidia chips. They're restricted from the high end stuff because they'll rip it off.

However, Wang at ScaleAI is saying they may have up to 50k of high end chips but can't talk about it because they've circumvented export controls to get them.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/scale-ai-ceo-warns-chinas-163446995.html

We keep finding high end chips in Russian missiles, so we have a leak somewhere.

The Kh-101 long-range cruise missile fired into Kyiv was laden with electronics from American chipmakers that had been restricted by trade controls, according to Ukraine’s National Agency on Corruption Prevention.​

​

One important chip in the Russian missiles was the Field Programmable Gate Array, or F.P.G.A., made by U.S. companies such as Advanced Micro Devices and Intel. The chip is used in fire alarms, internet modems, missiles and drones to process data at lightning speed and is banned for sale to Russia.​

​

Since the war began, Russia has imported more than $390 million in F.P.G.A.s, according to Russian customs data. The shipments are just one sliver of the Kremlin’s efforts to sidestep sanctions and maintain supplies of critical technology.​

​

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/technology/russia-sanctions-chips.html

 

[IUJIM]

Believing anything coming out of China is questionable, at least. Nvidia dominates the high end chip space. We have Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta all spending billions of dollars per year trying to create their own proprietary chips, so they don't have to rely on NVDA chips as much, yet can't catch them. AMD has been chasing NVDA for years, but...we have 3 Chinese hedge fund managers that have been able to catch NVDA with an investment of $6 million? I don't think so. Either that, or all of the engineers at these 4 companies really suck.

 

[Noodle]

What if DeepSeek was really just a way to make a ton of money shorting Nvidia (and some others)? DeepSeek was founded by a hedge fund manager, after all.

 

[GooglyMooglyWooglyBoogly]

Gotta love Cramer. And yes, I bought the dip today.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

What if DeepSeek was really just a way to make a ton of money shorting Nvidia (and some others)? DeepSeek was founded by a hedge fund manager, after all.

I would say we taught them to well, why produce anything when you can get rich playing accounting games. Becoming an American entrepreneur 101.

 

[hookyIU1990]

I would say we taught them to well, why produce anything when you can get rich playing accounting games. Becoming an American entrepreneur 101.

That's speculation, not entrepreneurship.

 

[mcmurtry66]

That's speculation, not entrepreneurship.

Exactly. The former has a chance. The latter….

 

[hookyIU1990]

The latter….

Has alimony, child support, and Pakistani vendors.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Has alimony, child support, and Pakistani vendors.

Where selling drugs even flops

 

[Marvin the Martian]

That's speculation, not entrepreneurship.

Good point, whatever it is it is the basis of the modern American economy

 

[hookyIU1990]

Good point, whatever it is it is the basis of the modern American economy

Middlemen as my father farmer would put it. While not entirely accurate, the message is received.

 

[GooglyMooglyWooglyBoogly]

Good point, whatever it is it is the basis of the modern American economy

Speculation is not the basis of the modern economy. Long-term investment is.

 

[TomEric4756]

We keep finding high end chips in Russian missiles, so we have a leak somewhere.

The Kh-101 long-range cruise missile fired into Kyiv was laden with electronics from American chipmakers that had been restricted by trade controls, according to Ukraine’s National Agency on Corruption Prevention.​

​

One important chip in the Russian missiles was the Field Programmable Gate Array, or F.P.G.A., made by U.S. companies such as Advanced Micro Devices and Intel. The chip is used in fire alarms, internet modems, missiles and drones to process data at lightning speed and is banned for sale to Russia.​

​

Since the war began, Russia has imported more than $390 million in F.P.G.A.s, according to Russian customs data. The shipments are just one sliver of the Kremlin’s efforts to sidestep sanctions and maintain supplies of critical technology.​

​

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/technology/russia-sanctions-chips.html

Yes, Anything you can model in VHDL can be compiled into a custom ASIC or a FPGA. Often, the FPGA is used to as a prototype part to prove the VHDL model is correct.

When raw neural network designs were a thing, the design of the network layers (problem partitioning) could give a one model an advantage over a lesser considered one. But you could always make a bigger network (throw money at the problem) and improve performance.

I’m skeptical of the purported claims, it’s as likely a dis-information operation as true at this point. [As revenge for embargoing the NVDA chips in the first place … As revenge for the 500-Billion AI investment announcement…]

 

[Digressions]

I would say we taught them to well, why produce anything when you can get rich playing accounting games. Becoming an American entrepreneur 101.

You're correct. They've been playing the commodity markets like this for at least 30 years now.

Go long soybeans. Send the rumor that they're tendering beans. Tender the beans. Short the beans. Cancel the tender. Wash rince repeat.

I don't know enough about deepseek. I would just say the Chinese figured out to manipulate markets decades ago.

They're getting "ballsier".

 

[UncleMark]

Yes, Anything you can model in VHDL can be compiled into a custom ASIC or a FPGA. Often, the FPGA is used to as a prototype part to prove the VHDL model is correct.

When raw neural network designs were a thing, the design of the network layers (problem partitioning) could give a one model an advantage over a lesser considered one. But you could always make a bigger network (throw money at the problem) and improve performance.

I’m skeptical of the purported claims, it’s as likely a dis-information operation as true at this point. [As revenge for embargoing the NVDA chips in the first place … As revenge for the 500-Billion AI investment announcement…]

Jargon, dude. C'mon man.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

Not sure where else to ask this serious question, but a thread about Chinese technology seems as good as any (didn't want to start an all new thread):

TikTok was deemed a national security threat, and a bipartisan ban was passed by Congress and upheld by the SC. Tom Cotton went so far as to say that it had killed many American kids.
So, why hasn't Trump shut it down, and does his failure to do so, considering it has been deemed so dangerous to our country, rise to the level of treason?
Can any of our MAGA board members defend Trump not immediately slamming the door on such an obvious infiltration by an enemy country (as depicted by at least one poster) ? Why hasn't he acted in the country's best interest here?
TIA

 

[TomEric4756]

Jargon, dude. C'mon man.

Verilog Hardware Design Language … Application Specific Integrated Circuit

 

[UncleMark]

Verilog Hardware Design Language … Application Specific Integrated Circuit

Okay, now it all makes sense. 🤔

 

[BradStevens]

That is all true, but it isn't to me the lead. How did China develop a comparable system for basically 1/1000th of what we are pouring in? That is assuming they have. I am pretty skeptical.

One of our biggest issues is power for these computers. Our AI companies are basically buying nuclear power plants to power their work. How is China doing it?

It just seems more and more likely we aren't getting the full story.

By stealing our tech.