Here are the items pertinent to the B1G. Iowa looked like a lock to make the Field of 64, but there is a very real possibility they might not make the Field of 64 despite their outstanding season and great weekend rotation, especially with a regular season ending series with a strong Oregon team, and this chat starts out with that subject. The Iowa fans are really sweating this last weekend out based on the chat questions. Also, I included another item on the RPI.
Brent: As a native Omahan, cold weather baseball will always have a special place in my heart. But at one point does the committee think it’s a bridge too far to award Iowa for a 189 non-con SOS, which at best has a tie against OSU and a single win against USF and also features 2 games (one was cancelled) against non-D1 opponents?
Aaron Fitt: It’s a tough one! I do think winning the Big Ten matters, if they can pull that off — that would probably get them in with a 60ish RPI, even despite that NSOS you mentioned. And I’m certainly sympathetic to the challenges facing a cold-weather team that is geographically isolated, and there for quite limited with its midweek options. But that means they really have to make hay in their nonconference weekends, and losing 3 of 4 on a neutral field against a Washington State team that is 18-32 overall feels problematic… and then they had a golden opportunity to really give their case a huge jolt this weekend against Oregon State in front of lots of fans in Des Moines, and they couldn’t win a game. So yeah…. their resumé feels a little light. It’s a fascinating case, and ultimately I think it boils down to this weekend against Oregon. Win that series and I suspect they play their way in, despite the warts.
Derek: Does Iowa have to take the series against Oregon this weekend for any chance at an NCAA bid?
Kendall Rogers: Derek — I wouldn’t say they HAVE to, but I think the case for Iowa being in the tournament is pretty weak if it doesn’t win that series. As of right now, Iowa doesn’t have a single series win over a team that will sniff the NCAA tournament as of today + non-conference series losses to South Florida and Washington State. I think Iowa is a good club, but not a ton of meat on the bone.
Eric Simmons: After Iowa went winless against Oregon State this weekend is there a path for them to get an at large bid? I think if they win that Oregon Series and win the Big Ten I think they could make it
Kendall Rogers: If Iowa gets swept this weekend, the Hawkeyes, IMO, would need to win the Big Ten tournament to make the tournament field.
RPI Sucks!: If we all realize RPI is a flawed metric. Why is that the cornerstone of what we use to determine host sites?
Aaron Fitt: I mean I think EVERY metric is flawed, is the thing — if there were one infallible formula we could rely upon, we could just let the computers pick the field and not bother having any of these debates. That said, the RPI’s flaws are well documented, and the committee has at least (finally!) taken steps toward improving the process, first by incorporating the KPI last year, and we think there’s a real chance that DSR becomes part of the process soon, perhaps even next year. The committee has shown an interest in modernizing the process, and that’s encouraging. But for now, RPI is still king (even if the power of its monarchy is showing signs of crumbling), so that’s what we have to go by.
Ducks!: Can you be specific on what Oregon needs to do to solidify a spot for a host? Feels
Kendall Rogers: I think Oregon is a lock to host if it wins that Iowa series this weekend. That would assure a very high finish in the Big Ten to go with a Top 18-19 RPI and a pretty solid overall resume. Right now, UO is 7-0 vs. Q1 and 4-2 vs. Q2. Those are pretty solid marks. I also think the eye test will matter (and help) Oregon in the pecking order.
Jacob: Do you ever see the season expanding past 56 games?
Kendall Rogers: Never say never. If anything, I think the NCAA would be more apt to shorten the season a hair. There was some talk a few years ago about going from 56 to 52 overall games, but it lost a lot of steam because of COVID, etc. I like where the season is right now. It’s the sweet spot.
Brent: As a native Omahan, cold weather baseball will always have a special place in my heart. But at one point does the committee think it’s a bridge too far to award Iowa for a 189 non-con SOS, which at best has a tie against OSU and a single win against USF and also features 2 games (one was cancelled) against non-D1 opponents?
Aaron Fitt: It’s a tough one! I do think winning the Big Ten matters, if they can pull that off — that would probably get them in with a 60ish RPI, even despite that NSOS you mentioned. And I’m certainly sympathetic to the challenges facing a cold-weather team that is geographically isolated, and there for quite limited with its midweek options. But that means they really have to make hay in their nonconference weekends, and losing 3 of 4 on a neutral field against a Washington State team that is 18-32 overall feels problematic… and then they had a golden opportunity to really give their case a huge jolt this weekend against Oregon State in front of lots of fans in Des Moines, and they couldn’t win a game. So yeah…. their resumé feels a little light. It’s a fascinating case, and ultimately I think it boils down to this weekend against Oregon. Win that series and I suspect they play their way in, despite the warts.
Derek: Does Iowa have to take the series against Oregon this weekend for any chance at an NCAA bid?
Kendall Rogers: Derek — I wouldn’t say they HAVE to, but I think the case for Iowa being in the tournament is pretty weak if it doesn’t win that series. As of right now, Iowa doesn’t have a single series win over a team that will sniff the NCAA tournament as of today + non-conference series losses to South Florida and Washington State. I think Iowa is a good club, but not a ton of meat on the bone.
Eric Simmons: After Iowa went winless against Oregon State this weekend is there a path for them to get an at large bid? I think if they win that Oregon Series and win the Big Ten I think they could make it
Kendall Rogers: If Iowa gets swept this weekend, the Hawkeyes, IMO, would need to win the Big Ten tournament to make the tournament field.
RPI Sucks!: If we all realize RPI is a flawed metric. Why is that the cornerstone of what we use to determine host sites?
Aaron Fitt: I mean I think EVERY metric is flawed, is the thing — if there were one infallible formula we could rely upon, we could just let the computers pick the field and not bother having any of these debates. That said, the RPI’s flaws are well documented, and the committee has at least (finally!) taken steps toward improving the process, first by incorporating the KPI last year, and we think there’s a real chance that DSR becomes part of the process soon, perhaps even next year. The committee has shown an interest in modernizing the process, and that’s encouraging. But for now, RPI is still king (even if the power of its monarchy is showing signs of crumbling), so that’s what we have to go by.
Ducks!: Can you be specific on what Oregon needs to do to solidify a spot for a host? Feels
Kendall Rogers: I think Oregon is a lock to host if it wins that Iowa series this weekend. That would assure a very high finish in the Big Ten to go with a Top 18-19 RPI and a pretty solid overall resume. Right now, UO is 7-0 vs. Q1 and 4-2 vs. Q2. Those are pretty solid marks. I also think the eye test will matter (and help) Oregon in the pecking order.
Jacob: Do you ever see the season expanding past 56 games?
Kendall Rogers: Never say never. If anything, I think the NCAA would be more apt to shorten the season a hair. There was some talk a few years ago about going from 56 to 52 overall games, but it lost a lot of steam because of COVID, etc. I like where the season is right now. It’s the sweet spot.
