Here are the items related to the B1G. I added yet another item on the Chris Lemonis saga at Mississippi State, and I can't help but think this is it for him at Miss St. if they don't make the Field of 64.
Kelt: At 57 in the RPI, why is Oregon still considered a top-25 caliber team? Kendall talks about INTENT TO SCHEDULE. The Ducks have an objectively weak strength of schedule with 9 losses to Q3 and Q4 teams. Any insight here?
Aaron Fitt: The short answer is, they started out ranked around the top 10 because they returned a LOT of good players from back-to-back super regional teams — they earned that high ranking because of their track record. And they have stayed in the rankings despite a lackluster nonconference schedule because they have only lost one series all year — and they dropped in the rankings for that series loss, but we weren’t gonna run them from the top 10 out of the Top 25. Oregon has kinda muddled along at times this year, definitely hasn’t been the buzzsaw you’d like to see against the schedule they have played… but they do still keep on winning their series. And that’s how a team can stay in the rankings even without high-end wins. I know that’s not a satisfying answer, but that’s just how it works.
Kyle: Iowa is currently 21-11, 14-4 in Big Ten play, which is good for first place over UCLA, but their RPI is 92 right now. Down 20-25 spots over their last 8 games, despite going 6-2. If they won the regular season title with an RPI in the 60’s or even stayed in the top three, they would have to be in a regional regardless of their RPI right? The Big Ten is normally a three-bid league and seemingly added three at-large worthy teams making it tougher to finish near the top.
Aaron Fitt: This will be a very interesting case, Kyle! Ultimately I think the answer is yes — if they win the league with an RPI in the 60s, I think they get in. If they finish in the top 3 and finish in the 60s… that would be dicey, but certainly they’d have a legitimate chance. The track record is mixed for teams in the Big Ten and Pac-12 with RPIs in the 60s but strong conference records, but there is some precedent for it. I think everyone is still trying to figure out the lay of the land with all the realignment, but ultimately I think the new-look Big Ten will get a little wiggle room.
DDawg: How big was that series win for USC at Penn State?
Kendall Rogers: Big in terms of some breathing room. We already had USC right there on the tournament bubble, and the Trojans went up 9 spots in the RPI over the past week to 39, along with a fourth-place conference standing. That means the Trojans almost definitely will be in this year’s Field of 64, but we’ll see if everyone else agrees on Tuesday.
Brendan: Assuming Iowa keeps up their pace, would a large quantity of wins be enough to combat their poor SOS and RPI at the ends of the season or will they need an autobid?
Kendall Rogers: Iowa just got off to a rough start this season and racked up some stinky wins, but the committee will be in quite a dilemma if the Hawkeyes win the Big Ten regular season title as the No. 5 RPI conference but still have an RPI in the 60s or something. I think it would be similar to that year Washington won the Pac 12 and made the tourney with an RPI in the 60 range. That’s my best comp for this situation. I think they’d get in if they win the regular season crown, personally.
Shane: Bruins have been great all season, but now have their most difficult part of the schedule coming up…vs. Oregon State, @ Oregon, @ UCI…if they can come out of that in decent shape (3-4 wins?)…will that place them anywhere near the top 8 discussion?
Kendall Rogers: Shane — if the Bruins win series over Oregon and UC Irvine, there’s a good chance they won’t lose a series all-season long. If that happens the RPI will probably be in a very good spot and probably Top 8 worthy.
Guest: What does Mississippi State’s RPI need to be at with 13 conference wins to be in a regional? I see a lot of people saying if we get to 13 we would be in. Based on playing with the predictive RPI numbers it looks like RPI would be in the 40s unless they win series against OM or Auburn
Kendall Rogers: I think the biggest thing for Mississippi State right now is winning enough games to get to that 12 and ideally, 13, mark in terms of conference wins. If State accomplishes that goal, the RPI will take care of itself.
Kelt: At 57 in the RPI, why is Oregon still considered a top-25 caliber team? Kendall talks about INTENT TO SCHEDULE. The Ducks have an objectively weak strength of schedule with 9 losses to Q3 and Q4 teams. Any insight here?
Aaron Fitt: The short answer is, they started out ranked around the top 10 because they returned a LOT of good players from back-to-back super regional teams — they earned that high ranking because of their track record. And they have stayed in the rankings despite a lackluster nonconference schedule because they have only lost one series all year — and they dropped in the rankings for that series loss, but we weren’t gonna run them from the top 10 out of the Top 25. Oregon has kinda muddled along at times this year, definitely hasn’t been the buzzsaw you’d like to see against the schedule they have played… but they do still keep on winning their series. And that’s how a team can stay in the rankings even without high-end wins. I know that’s not a satisfying answer, but that’s just how it works.
Kyle: Iowa is currently 21-11, 14-4 in Big Ten play, which is good for first place over UCLA, but their RPI is 92 right now. Down 20-25 spots over their last 8 games, despite going 6-2. If they won the regular season title with an RPI in the 60’s or even stayed in the top three, they would have to be in a regional regardless of their RPI right? The Big Ten is normally a three-bid league and seemingly added three at-large worthy teams making it tougher to finish near the top.
Aaron Fitt: This will be a very interesting case, Kyle! Ultimately I think the answer is yes — if they win the league with an RPI in the 60s, I think they get in. If they finish in the top 3 and finish in the 60s… that would be dicey, but certainly they’d have a legitimate chance. The track record is mixed for teams in the Big Ten and Pac-12 with RPIs in the 60s but strong conference records, but there is some precedent for it. I think everyone is still trying to figure out the lay of the land with all the realignment, but ultimately I think the new-look Big Ten will get a little wiggle room.
DDawg: How big was that series win for USC at Penn State?
Kendall Rogers: Big in terms of some breathing room. We already had USC right there on the tournament bubble, and the Trojans went up 9 spots in the RPI over the past week to 39, along with a fourth-place conference standing. That means the Trojans almost definitely will be in this year’s Field of 64, but we’ll see if everyone else agrees on Tuesday.
Brendan: Assuming Iowa keeps up their pace, would a large quantity of wins be enough to combat their poor SOS and RPI at the ends of the season or will they need an autobid?
Kendall Rogers: Iowa just got off to a rough start this season and racked up some stinky wins, but the committee will be in quite a dilemma if the Hawkeyes win the Big Ten regular season title as the No. 5 RPI conference but still have an RPI in the 60s or something. I think it would be similar to that year Washington won the Pac 12 and made the tourney with an RPI in the 60 range. That’s my best comp for this situation. I think they’d get in if they win the regular season crown, personally.
Shane: Bruins have been great all season, but now have their most difficult part of the schedule coming up…vs. Oregon State, @ Oregon, @ UCI…if they can come out of that in decent shape (3-4 wins?)…will that place them anywhere near the top 8 discussion?
Kendall Rogers: Shane — if the Bruins win series over Oregon and UC Irvine, there’s a good chance they won’t lose a series all-season long. If that happens the RPI will probably be in a very good spot and probably Top 8 worthy.
Guest: What does Mississippi State’s RPI need to be at with 13 conference wins to be in a regional? I see a lot of people saying if we get to 13 we would be in. Based on playing with the predictive RPI numbers it looks like RPI would be in the 40s unless they win series against OM or Auburn
Kendall Rogers: I think the biggest thing for Mississippi State right now is winning enough games to get to that 12 and ideally, 13, mark in terms of conference wins. If State accomplishes that goal, the RPI will take care of itself.
