Communist California Sets Economic Growth Record. Budget SURPLUS hits $75 billion

freeboardescapee

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i'm in clayton. the median list price here is $800,000. new construction north of maryland ave goes from 2-5 mil. it's insane, and stupid. homes are 4 mil and two hundred yards from delmar. by way of comparison home prices in palm beach county have risen 21% in the last year and the median sales price is still just $370k. anyway, that's all secondarily important to the point that you just ruined my father's day with your story. napa. lucky bastard.
Did I mention that wildfire season is approaching out here? I guess I conveniently left that part out.
 
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mcmurtry66

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Did I mention that wildfire season is approaching out here? I guess I conveniently left that part out.
i know but you know how boring it is here. you're in paradise. any city that's as obsessed as they are here with the cardinals has a dearth of things to do. make babies and sign em up for soccer.

this crazy housing market, everywhere, is going to be an issue in the years to come if there isn't a correction because it's going to price a shit ton of first time buyers out of the market when rates go up
 
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hookyIU1990

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this crazy housing market, everywhere, is going to be an issue in the years to come if there isn't a correction because it's going to price a shit ton of first time buyers out of the market when rates go up
I'm wondering how many people have borrowed against equity that will be lost when rates go up.

Just another bubble.
 

Stuffshot

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Agree with much of this. I have two buddies in Manhattan beach. Years ago they were telling me people were starting to get 50 year mortgages in SoCal
Not to worry though -- according to this, some of those fires only occur once every 100 years:

"Unlike Western forests, coastal chaparral and sage scrub may burn only once every 100 years, and the inland ridges every 30 years."


Those people can actually have two 50-year mortgages before the next big fire. Who knows? They may well have to declare bankruptcy before then.
 

Stuffshot

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I'm wondering how many people have borrowed against equity that will be lost when rates go up.

Just another bubble.
You should Google "variable rate mortgages" and "housing crisis" to make some of your wonder go away.

Before you stick all your money in rural real estate (reputedly stable and safe) as an alternative, you should Google "savings and loan scandal" and "Charles Keating."

There are tons of rental homes available right now. No one should be buying a house at these inflated prices at this time unless (1) they really, really like the house/neighborhood/ community, (2) want to actually live in that house for 8-10-12 years and (3) trust their employer not to fire them because they're over 50 or to move the whole operation to someplace cheap like Singapore or Mexico or Mississippi. Wait to buy when the house prices fall and take pride in being a selfish cheapskate like employers.
 

HooDatGuy

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I have a few friends who have moved from California in the past few years. Without exception, they were not thriving in their careers. California is tough in that scenario. The herd gets thinned.
Eh. That’s not true. The professionals in California are not any more talented or meritorious than anywhere else in the country. And the hiring really isn’t that much more competitive.

The cost of living is high there, companies have to pay people accordingly. That’s really it.
 

mcmurtry66

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You should Google "variable rate mortgages" and "housing crisis" to make some of your wonder go away.

Before you stick all your money in rural real estate (reputedly stable and safe) as an alternative, you should Google "savings and loan scandal" and "Charles Keating."

There are tons of rental homes available right now. No one should be buying a house at these inflated prices at this time unless (1) they really, really like the house/neighborhood/ community, (2) want to actually live in that house for 8-10-12 years and (3) trust their employer not to fire them because they're over 50 or to move the whole operation to someplace cheap like Singapore or Mexico or Mississippi. Wait to buy when the house prices fall and take pride in being a selfish cheapskate like employers.
"No one should be buying a house at these inflated prices at this time..." The problem is we have no idea 1) if it's a bubble and 2) how long it'll last. so do you sit out waiting a year and that year turns to two and then to five....
 

Stuffshot

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"No one should be buying a house at these inflated prices at this time..." The problem is we have no idea 1) if it's a bubble and 2) how long it'll last. so do you sit out waiting a year and that year turns to two and then to five....
The issue is risk. Can today's buyer afford to be wrong about the risk?

I pointed out some of the risks of buying a house right now and stand by that. How do you justify jumping into this high housing market (which is what it appears you might be suggesting)?
 

mcmurtry66

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The issue is risk. Can today's buyer afford to be wrong about the risk?

I pointed out some of the risks of buying a house right now and stand by that. How do you justify jumping into this high housing market (which is what it appears you might be suggesting)?
Yeah moving to fla. in the next year to whenever really. Last go around the bubble was predictable with subprime, stated income, no docs, robo foreclosures etc. now you’ve got New Yorkers moving down there paying 50 percent over price and it’s still cheaper than what they left. These are flush, qualified people. So maybe it’s not a bubble and just the way it is now. Price increases will slow down but there’s no bubble to pop.

There’s a weird dichotomy of people who saved dough and made out like bandits during Covid and people who lost their ass. I’m squarely in the latter
 
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hookyIU1990

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You should Google "variable rate mortgages" and "housing crisis" to make some of your wonder go away.

Before you stick all your money in rural real estate (reputedly stable and safe) as an alternative, you should Google "savings and loan scandal" and "Charles Keating."

There are tons of rental homes available right now. No one should be buying a house at these inflated prices at this time unless (1) they really, really like the house/neighborhood/ community, (2) want to actually live in that house for 8-10-12 years and (3) trust their employer not to fire them because they're over 50 or to move the whole operation to someplace cheap like Singapore or Mexico or Mississippi. Wait to buy when the house prices fall and take pride in being a selfish cheapskate like employers.
No need to Google it to understand what it is. My wonder is to what extent will the problem be? That'll depend on how many people have done it relative to how far prices will fall.
 

hookyIU1990

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you think so re bubble? i don't really know a lot about that stuff. i know that buyers were actually qualified this go around as compared to the stated income insanity of 08
Yeah, I do. It's not just crazy in the usual places. It's crazy in small towns without much going for them too. My little dink hometown (closest to the family farm anyway) where the largest employer is a meatpacking plant is seeing a boom. The town has lost half it's population since I left for school in the 80s.

It's not subprime like it was. I think it's people who borrowed against the equity they got in this run up during historically low rates. If a 30 year fixed goes north of 7 or 8, people are gonna be stuck in that house for a long time.
 
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freeboardescapee

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Eh. That’s not true. The professionals in California are not any more talented or meritorious than anywhere else in the country. And the hiring really isn’t that much more competitive.

The cost of living is high there, companies have to pay people accordingly. That’s really it.
Oh, I don't believe the professionals out here are any better than other parts of the country. I see plenty of hacks in my line of work. Hell, I'm not even that great of a lawyer.
 

hookyIU1990

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Oh, I don't believe the professionals out here are any better than other parts of the country. I see plenty of hacks in my line of work. Hell, I'm not even that great of a lawyer.
A buddy left the consulting firm we worked at and moved to San Diego to do the same thing out there. On a visit the following year, he tried to convince me to move out and start our own practice. His cornerstone argument was that a guy willing to work a solid 40-50 hour work week would quickly have more business than he could handle. To him it wasn't about the smarts, but rather the want to.
 
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DANC

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A buddy left the consulting firm we worked at and moved to San Diego to do the same thing out there. On a visit the following year, he tried to convince me to move out and start our own practice. His cornerstone argument was that a guy willing to work a solid 40-50 hour work week would quickly have more business than he could handle. To him it wasn't about the smarts, but rather the want to.
My brother-in-law had a friend who moved to LA to be an actor. He grew up on a farm and had great success as a handyman and contractor and worked on many stars' homes. He got to know some of them and they found him parts, but he made a great living just doing home repair. This was 40 years ago, before finding a good handyman was damn near impossible and expensive.
 
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hookyIU1990

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My brother-in-law had a friend who moved to LA to be an actor. He grew up on a farm and had great success as a handyman and contractor and worked on many stars' homes. He got to know some of them and they found him parts, but he made a great living just doing home repair. This was 40 years ago, before finding a good handyman was damn near impossible and expensive.
I don't doubt that at all.

Along the same lines, look up Burton Gilliam. You'll recognize him right off. Great story about how he fell into acting
 
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HooDatGuy

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Oh, I don't believe the professionals out here are any better than other parts of the country. I see plenty of hacks in my line of work. Hell, I'm not even that great of a lawyer.
I’ve worked for a couple of Silicon Valley giants in my young career. I’ve been in and out of SFO more than a Thai hooker.

A lot of really brilliant people, a lot of morons as well.
 
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freeboardescapee

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My brother-in-law had a friend who moved to LA to be an actor. He grew up on a farm and had great success as a handyman and contractor and worked on many stars' homes. He got to know some of them and they found him parts, but he made a great living just doing home repair. This was 40 years ago, before finding a good handyman was damn near impossible and expensive.
"A lot of really brilliant people, a lot of morons as well."

That's the same answer God gave when asked for his one sentence tag line for Earth.
 
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Crayfish57

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My brother-in-law had a friend who moved to LA to be an actor. He grew up on a farm and had great success as a handyman and contractor and worked on many stars' homes. He got to know some of them and they found him parts, but he made a great living just doing home repair. This was 40 years ago, before finding a good handyman was damn near impossible and expensive.
Harrison Ford I presume?

I can't imagine it myself trying to buy anywhere now . I pd cash for a house at 18 . What you say is true about trades and a lot of people that think they are really intelligent yet don't know how to actually do much of anything to take care of themselves.

All a perspective on how you want to live and what you see as quality of life. I really cant imagine making mortgage payments and interest. I bought an old brick farmhouse and did a lot of work . Never understand why people like to argue about who wants to live where and how to pay for it other than their own self esteem . I can tell you this,having never had a mortgage or rent payment coming due makes life a lot easier even if some other parts are harder like working around remodeling your bathroom or kitchen.

I have a friend in SD She will always pay rent somewhere in a tiny apartment and she is happier there. There seems to be a lot recently on here ,the Mayor Lightfoot thread for one that people seem to feel a need to feel superior to others because of where they live . We are all different the bigger question is are you happy where you live?
 
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sglowrider

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Tiny Red Dot
Calif is uniquely unique and by far my favorite state, but I don’t know how people live there.

Calif’s median home is $813,000. It’s median household income is $75,000. Indiana’s median home is like $160,000 and median income is $58,000.

In the last decade 700,000 people have moved from calif to Texas. No state income taxes and I presume the American Dream of home ownership matters. Calif is now trying to grow it’s fractional ownership opps bc home ownership there has become so far out of reach.

I’ll be interested to see how this economic growth impacts population etc

If you are going to judge a place (or country) primarily based on the median price of a home then you are missing the point and from a pinhole.
You are also missing all the intangibles. You need to look at the quality of life, lifestyle elements.

But on the other hand, it depends how & where you were brought up -- and what your matrices are. I had relatives that shook their heads when I said I was going to Indiana.
My nephew's in law's entire family have lived in the Bay Area all their lives ... and weirdly are more comfortable visiting SG than going to the MidWest. They wouldn't live anywhere else ie outside the Bay Area. Personally, I think they are a tad parochial.

So having lived in quite a few places, I can see all sides. But median prices of homes ain't the only way to judge. You should see the prices of cars & homes in SG. Your teeth would fall out.
 
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Aloha Hoosier

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You should Google "variable rate mortgages" and "housing crisis" to make some of your wonder go away.

Before you stick all your money in rural real estate (reputedly stable and safe) as an alternative, you should Google "savings and loan scandal" and "Charles Keating."

There are tons of rental homes available right now. No one should be buying a house at these inflated prices at this time unless (1) they really, really like the house/neighborhood/ community, (2) want to actually live in that house for 8-10-12 years and (3) trust their employer not to fire them because they're over 50 or to move the whole operation to someplace cheap like Singapore or Mexico or Mississippi. Wait to buy when the house prices fall and take pride in being a selfish cheapskate like employers.
Singapore is very expensive, not cheap.
 

mcmurtry66

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If you are going to judge a place (or country) primarily based on the median price of a home then you are missing the point and from a pinhole.
You are also missing all the intangibles. You need to look at the quality of life, lifestyle elements.

But on the other hand, it depends how & where you were brought up -- and what your matrices are. I had relatives that shook their heads when I said I was going to Indiana.
My nephew's in law's entire family have lived in the Bay Area all their lives ... and weirdly are more comfortable visiting SG than going to the MidWest. They wouldn't live anywhere else ie outside the Bay Area. Personally, I think they are a tad parochial.

So having lived in quite a few places, I can see all sides. But median prices of homes ain't the only way to judge. You should see the prices of cars & homes in SG. Your teeth would fall out.
Oh I know. One of my goiod friends lives in Singapore. IU guy. Agreed on the endless intangibles of calif but home price and ownership has always been one of the defining markers in the US. THE American Dream as evidenced by the 700,000 that have left for tx in the last decade in search of cheaper homes, and the dream fund or whatever calif Dems call it to help people buy homes with “silent partners”
 
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twenty02

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Oh I know. One of my goiod friends lives in Singapore. IU guy. Agreed on the endless intangibles of calif but home price and ownership has always been one of the defining markers in the US. THE American Dream as evidenced by the 700,000 that have left for tx in the last decade in search of cheaper homes, and the dream fund or whatever calif Dems call it to help people buy homes with “silent partners”

That's great.... until they wake up and realize that they live in fkn Texas.
 
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jsig

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I get that, but there are "only" 188 billionaires in California. They're not all going to move to Texas. I personally can't stand Texas. But I've spent most of my time, by far, in Houston, Dallas, and Austin (overrated).

Texas 4th friendliness state. Indiana is 6th. California is 40th. Don't know if you live in Indiana but if so, one must wonder if the Indiana could move up the list and pass Texas if you moved to Cali and joined your unfriendly buddies. You could all hate and not stand things together. .


Everyone knows the property taxes in Texas are not good. My house has more than doubled in price the last 5 years in Austin. It sux because it just makes it more difficult for the kids when they want to get a home. What's the point of selling. I'm not going to find a reasonably priced house until the market drops abck to norm.

The good news is I can rent out the house to make enough to easily pay rent for a nice place in Arequipa. I could hike in the mountains in the morning and head for the beach after that. Not sure why that is so desirable but people in California sure talk about doing it in the same day a lot. Hopefully the Arequipa prices remain reasonable as I have 5 or so years until retirement. I'll have to figure out the healthcare. i'm sure had the Federal govt. not stolen medicare taxes for my lifetime, I could have invested it to pay whatever the cost of private healthcare. The US govt. is so good at lowering our quality of life with the regulations and taxes. Even then the rent income from our house might pay all our expenses to live in such a great place along with the property tax on the house being rented.


Peru just beat Colombia so that really helps in their group play as they try to get to the Copa knockout phase.
 

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