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CFP Rankings Prediction

daddyhoosier

daddyhoosier

Junior
Aug 31, 2019
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CFP Ranking Projection

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn St
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise St
12. **Alabama/Clemson/Arizona St??

Wow! A lot went right for us. I project that Indiana is pretty safely in with only the pretty low hurdle of beating Purdue (by double-digits) remaining.

Alabama, Ole Miss, A&M all fall to 3 losses in the SEC.

BYU loss virtually guarantees nobody from the Big XII will leapfrog us.

I would put us ahead of Boise but that is technically academic because they will be seeded ahead of us either way.

I now assess that even if the ACC gets two teams in we are still safe.

Good night all!! Beat Purdue!!
 
Last edited:
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daddyhoosier said:
CFP Ranking Projection

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn St
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise St
12. Clemson

Wow! A lot went right for us. I project that Indiana is pretty safely in with only the pretty low hurdle of beating Purdue (by double-digits) remaining.

Alabama, Ole Miss, A&M all fall to 3 losses in the SEC.

BYU lost but I'm not sure that it actually matters must since in my view that Conference is only getting one team in regardless.

I would put us ahead of Boise but that is technically academic because they will be seeded ahead of us regardless the way it's set up.

I now assess that even if the ACC gets two teams in we are still safe.

Good night all!! Beat Purdue!!
Click to expand...
I don’t think this should happen, for what it’s worth. But if Bama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M all win next week and finish with 3 losses. I think, in a weird way, that opens the door more for a 3 loss SEC team to get in. Similar concept to Clemson beating South Carolina, and making the debate about more teams in the ACC increasing the pressure to put 2 ACC teams in. I think with more 3 loss SEC teams, with them having to consider them now in all likelihood, it “legitimizes” the 3 loss teams more.

And I know it shouldn’t be this way, but I do think they’ll be lumping a 1 loss IU team in with 2nd ACC teams and then the 3 loss SEC teams.
 
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IUNorth said:
I don’t think this should happen, for what it’s worth. But if Bama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M all win next week and finish with 3 losses. I think, in a weird way, that opens the door more for a 3 loss SEC team to get in. Similar concept to Clemson beating South Carolina, and making the debate about more teams in the ACC increasing the pressure to put 2 ACC teams in. I think with more 3 loss SEC teams, with them having to consider them now in all likelihood, it “legitimizes” the 3 loss teams more.

And I know it shouldn’t be this way, but I do think they’ll be lumping a 1 loss IU team in with 2nd ACC teams and then the 3 loss SEC teams.
Click to expand...
If a 3 loss SEC team gets in before a 1 loss B1G team, i’m gonna lose my sh!t.
 
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daddyhoosier said:
CFP Ranking Projection

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn St
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise St
12. Clemson

Wow! A lot went right for us. I project that Indiana is pretty safely in with only the pretty low hurdle of beating Purdue (by double-digits) remaining.

Alabama, Ole Miss, A&M all fall to 3 losses in the SEC.

BYU virtually guarantees nobody from the Big XII will leapfrog us.

I would put us ahead of Boise but that is technically academic because they will be seeded ahead of us either way.

I now assess that even if the ACC gets two teams in we are still safe.

Good night all!! Beat Purdue!!
Click to expand...
CLEM has no argument to get in unless SYR beats MIA. Their loss to LOU is really bad.

I really don’t think the ACC gets two in. As bad as the bottom of the B1G is, the bottom of the ACC is worse.
 
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IUFreak said:
If a 3 loss SEC team gets in before a 1 loss B1G team, i’m gonna lose my sh!t.
Click to expand...
Me too. But IU was only a couple spots ahead of Bama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee, with 2 less losses. And that was without the poor performance we put out today.
 
IUNorth said:
I don’t think this should happen, for what it’s worth. But if Bama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M all win next week and finish with 3 losses. I think, in a weird way, that opens the door more for a 3 loss SEC team to get in. Similar concept to Clemson beating South Carolina, and making the debate about more teams in the ACC increasing the pressure to put 2 ACC teams in. I think with more 3 loss SEC teams, with them having to consider them now in all likelihood, it “legitimizes” the 3 loss teams more.

And I know it shouldn’t be this way, but I do think they’ll be lumping a 1 loss IU team in with 2nd ACC teams and then the 3 loss SEC teams.
Click to expand...
Definitely hear what you are saying. If we were literally just about any other program we probably wouldn't have to consider what you are saying, but you are likely right to predict there will be discussion. You know one of the hot-take artists will leap at the opportunity. We do have the Cinderella storyline working in our favor.
 
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SRIV94 said:
CLEM has no argument to get in unless SYR beats MIA. Their loss to LOU is really bad.

I really don’t think the ACC gets two in. As bad as the bottom of the B1G is, the bottom of the ACC is worse.
Click to expand...
I think both SMU and Miami will get in, at this point.
 
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daddyhoosier said:
Definitely hear what you are saying. If we were literally just about any other program we probably wouldn't have to consider what you are saying, but you are likely right to predict there will be discussion. You know one of the hot-take artists will leap at the opportunity. We do have the Cinderella storyline working in our favor.
Click to expand...
So far the committee hasn’t completely rewarded good SOS, or hurt poor SOS. One thing I haven’t been thinking of until now basically, they’d have to change their mentality, probably, to valuing SOS more…to put these 3 loss SEC teams in over teams like IU.
 
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SRIV94 said:
CLEM has no argument to get in unless SYR beats MIA. Their loss to LOU is really bad.

I really don’t think the ACC gets two in. As bad as the bottom of the B1G is, the bottom of the ACC is worse.
Click to expand...
I am legitimately curious to see who they put at 12. If it's not Clemson it will have to be 3-loss Alabama wouldn't it? BYU, A&M and Colorado all lost.
 
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IUNorth said:
I don’t think this should happen, for what it’s worth. But if Bama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M all win next week and finish with 3 losses. I think, in a weird way, that opens the door more for a 3 loss SEC team to get in. Similar concept to Clemson beating South Carolina, and making the debate about more teams in the ACC increasing the pressure to put 2 ACC teams in. I think with more 3 loss SEC teams, with them having to consider them now in all likelihood, it “legitimizes” the 3 loss teams more.

And I know it shouldn’t be this way, but I do think they’ll be lumping a 1 loss IU team in with 2nd ACC teams and then the 3 loss SEC teams.
Click to expand...
I was with you, but now you’re paranoid. These SEC teams didn’t lose to good teams. Bama and Texas AM both lost to teams that have 1 conference win tonight. They’re finished.
 
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Bucket Getter said:
Beat the brakes off Purdue and still have a slim chance to host. I’m actually damn glad we aren’t forced to play in a quasi-meaningless B1G championship game. Just another chance to lose frontline players before the tournament.
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Yeah, the Conference Championship Games have a weird dynamic because you are playing a team you might have to face again. Ohio State and Oregon could end up playing 3 times. Rourke will have an extra week for his thumb to heal. While it would be amazing to play in that game you can certainly argue that no having to bother with it sets us up better for whomever we play in the Playoff.
 
daddyhoosier said:
CFP Ranking Projection

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn St
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise St
12. **Alabama/Clemson/Arizona St??

Wow! A lot went right for us. I project that Indiana is pretty safely in with only the pretty low hurdle of beating Purdue (by double-digits) remaining.

Alabama, Ole Miss, A&M all fall to 3 losses in the SEC.

BYU loss virtually guarantees nobody from the Big XII will leapfrog us.

I would put us ahead of Boise but that is technically academic because they will be seeded ahead of us either way.

I now assess that even if the ACC gets two teams in we are still safe.

Good night all!! Beat Purdue!!
Click to expand...
Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe this means we would be seeded #12 as the Big XII and Go5 Champs would both skip ahead of us. Which also means we would likely play one of them as the 5 - 12 match-up, and possibly even be favored. 😅
 
IUNorth said:
I don’t think this should happen, for what it’s worth. But if Bama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M all win next week and finish with 3 losses. I think, in a weird way, that opens the door more for a 3 loss SEC team to get in. Similar concept to Clemson beating South Carolina, and making the debate about more teams in the ACC increasing the pressure to put 2 ACC teams in. I think with more 3 loss SEC teams, with them having to consider them now in all likelihood, it “legitimizes” the 3 loss teams more.

And I know it shouldn’t be this way, but I do think they’ll be lumping a 1 loss IU team in with 2nd ACC teams and then the 3 loss SEC teams.
Click to expand...
No 3 loss team that didn't win their conference should be allowed into a 12 team playoff. That's just me.
 
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Penn State will drop further. IU should be ahead of SMU. If you check their schedule the two rated teams they played are now both 7-4. Just don't think SMU will jump up that far.
IU should come in at #9.
 
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daddyhoosier said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe this means we would be seeded #12 as the Big XII and Go5 Champs would both skip ahead of us. Which also means we would likely play one of them as the 5 - 12 match-up, and possibly even be favored. 😅
Click to expand...
I don’t think that’s right. The 12 seed for IND I think is correct, but the 5 seed would be OSU in your mock (highest ranked non-champion). So we’d have a rematch in Columbus.

EDIT: Or if we’re ahead of AZST, then AZST would be 12 and IND 11, meaning it’d be ND we play.
 
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IUNorth said:
I think both SMU and Miami will get in, at this point.
Click to expand...
IUNorth said:
I don’t think this should happen, for what it’s worth. But if Bama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M all win next week and finish with 3 losses. I think, in a weird way, that opens the door more for a 3 loss SEC team to get in. Similar concept to Clemson beating South Carolina, and making the debate about more teams in the ACC increasing the pressure to put 2 ACC teams in. I think with more 3 loss SEC teams, with them having to consider them now in all likelihood, it “legitimizes” the 3 loss teams more.

And I know it shouldn’t be this way, but I do think they’ll be lumping a 1 loss IU team in with 2nd ACC teams and then the 3 loss SEC teams.
Click to expand...
IUNorth said:
I think both SMU and Miami will get in, at this point.
Click to expand...


I think that, as bad as we looked, the committee will be searching for ways to screw us over.

I also think they will be searching for ways to get 4 SEC teams in. Problem for them is...its hard to see how.

They'd LOVE to get Bama in. But, Bama's loss was probably even worse than ours. There's no evidence after OK's win that they can even throw the ball with their present QB. They beat Bama by running the ball.

Before yesterday we were $5 and Bama was #7. I would think that with the respective losses there's still a 2 spot gap between IU and Bama. If they kill Auburn at home and we play like crap v. Purdue, it could happen.

The only other logical SEC candidates would be Ole Miss and A& M. Ole Miss lost at home to UK and before yesterday were 4 spots behind us. They look to be out.

A&M would be interesting if they beat TX. Their losses are a close loss to ND at home, at Auburn, and at S. Carolina. I guess some would look at Auburn as a bad loss, but Auburn's not that bad. IF they beat TX I think they'd probably be in EXCEPT that they would then be in the SEC championship game, which presumably they will lose to GA. No way they get in with 4 losses. IF they beat TX and GA they deserve to be in, imo.

So..........on the face of it I don't see how they get 4 SEC teams in. It will be interesting to see how they get it done. Maybe South Carolina, if they rout Clemson? Their best wins in that case would be at OK soundly, at UK soundly, at Clemson, Missouri at home, and A & M soundly at home. Not bad. Their losses would be LSU and Ole Miss at home, and at Bama. And I believe they had some injuries during the year.

If there are only 3 SEC teams, 2 ACC teams doesn't leave us out...unless Clemson rolls South Carolina

Oregon
OSU
PSU
IU
TN
GA
TX
Boise St
ND
Big 12 champ
SMU
Miami

Clemson??
South Carolina??

If Miami beats SMU we look to be in in any scenerio.
 
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