CFB projections
- Thread starter zeke4ahs
- Start date
Unless we get absolutely murdered in Columbus, AND the ACC gets 2 teams, AND the B12 gets 2 teams, AND TX A&M wins the SEC, we are in the CFP. Beat O$U and we probably host a 1st round game.
I mean they're all but clinched after the win against Michigan barring several unseen scenarios playing out. IU has the 5th best odds to make the CFP, ahead of every SEC team with the exception of texas.
Beat OSU, IU/Oregon will be 1 vs 2 in the B10 championship game. Winner gets the #1 overall seed and the loser gets the 5th seed.
I totally agree that we host a 1st round game if we beat O$U and lose to Oregon in the B10 championship game.
Indiana has the defense to play Ohio State straight up. Indiana has the defense to stop Ohio State enough to give the Hoosiers a serious chance at the upset.
When you're 10-0 and ranked in the top 5 in the country, you roll into Columbus EXPECTING to upset them. Hell, you roll into Columbus PISSED off at the lack of respect from everyone in America!!!
You absolutely do not cede a damn thing to anyone, including OSU. It's time to get mean, bottom line. It's time to play the underdog role to the hilt!! Anyone can win with 4* and 5* players....
When you're 10-0 and ranked in the top 5 in the country, you roll into Columbus EXPECTING to upset them. Hell, you roll into Columbus PISSED off at the lack of respect from everyone in America!!!
You absolutely do not cede a damn thing to anyone, including OSU. It's time to get mean, bottom line. It's time to play the underdog role to the hilt!! Anyone can win with 4* and 5* players....
Basically...outside of just worrying about IU handling their own business... looking at all the 1 and 2 loss SEC teams will probably end up determining whether IU makes it or not. And thats really only IF teams like ND and PSU win out, and if BYU goes undefeated in regular season, then loses B12 title game...THEN we might need to worry about the top SEC teams.
Here are the current 1 and 2 loss SEC teams to keep an eye on.
Tennessee (1 loss)
Texas (1 loss)
Texas A&M (2 loss)
Georgia (2 loss)
Ole Miss (2 loss)
Alabama (2 loss)
Missouri (2 loss, but likely too far out for consideration)
If my math is correct, it would take 4 of the teams above beating IU out for an at large, to bump IU completely out of the CFP. And again, that's only if B12 gets two, and ND and PSU win out.
It might not even be possible with how the SEC still has matchups within these teams, to weed themselves out.
In short, this is why IU's chances are so high right now to make the CFP.
This team has answered every question, and every challenge presented to them. They have a pretty big one right now...everyone saw what an elite defensive line, combined with an athletic back 7, can do to IU's vaunted offense.
Cig and the staff will have some answers for that, I'm sure. And I wouldn't bank on as many drops and/or missed throws by Rourke against OSU. And then I can't fathom ANY team putting up a ton of points on our defense.
It really should be a very good game. Obviously winning is a tall task, but the only result that will genuinely surprise me would be IU getting thumped.
You're right, our chances are high because if any team drops a game that they're not expected to lose down the stretch, and/or we keep it close or win against OSU, we're likely in the playoff.
I just have a bad feeling that we're going to see a 2021 MSU-OSU type of game after what I saw the offense become in the 2nd half vs Michigan. A bad performance in Columbus will give the committee justification to potentially put a 3-loss SEC team in over us.
BYU has had multiple miracles this year against mediocre teams. They are a decent team that is getting very lucky. FPI has them 27th, TeamRankings has them 24th. IU is 8.5 points better than BYU on a neutral field.
I would be more worried about Texas A&M running the table - if they upset Texas and we lose to OSU, they will likely jump us. We would need a LOT to happen to make it.
I can’t see the Committee leaving out 11-1 Indiana given that IU is the story of the season in college football.
I wouldn't say period to that. If BYU runs the table, but then loses to Colorado in B12 championship game, I'd be surprised if they didn't still get in.
ACC is very likely a 1 bid league though, yes. The only way that changes is if teams like ND and PSU lose a game or two coming home, and the SEC seriously weeds themselves out. Still don't think a 2 loss ACC team gets in though.
No doubt they will be left out with all the SEC two loss teams. I hate it but you can already see it happening. It will be a very easy thing for them to sell showing our strength of schedule and zero wins over top 25 CFP ranked teams. Powerhouse SEC names are allowed to lose to unranked opponents because they have big name wins on their resume. I would give us a 25 percent chance to get in with 1 loss and that’s assuming we play well at Ohio state. A blowout takes us out completely.
7 seed vs 10 seed Bama.
Weird semi-full circle for Cig on that one AND for DeBoer, Sheridan, and Wommack.
Weird semi-full circle for Cig on that one AND for DeBoer, Sheridan, and Wommack.
Projected to play Bama at IU now! I think it’s bs Pedo St is ahead of us, but I’d rather play Bama than Ole Miss! Now, question is, do we want this type of draw with a 1st round home game or a bye week if we beat OhSht!?
Committee actually getting this right is the sign of the apocalypse. Barring a disastrous beat down in Columbus, IU is going to be playing in the CFP. No way they fall 8 spots for losing on the road to the #2 team in a semi-competitive game.
Keep winning. Get some hardware by winning B10 title game. Hope we get ND in the Rose Bowl.
Not the same as what you said, but Georgia dropped like a stone with a road loss to a current at large team.
Bye would mean we’re undefeated and the #1 overall seed. Would mean they’re playing the winner of Boise St/most likely Oregon who’d fall from 1 to 5. Beating Oregon back to back games would be a monumental task but would feel so vindictive.
That was Georgia’s 2nd loss and Georgia has looked like absolute piss this year with the exception of their game in Austin. Ole Miss was 15th not 2nd.
Guessing they don’t care if it’s their first loss or their 2nd loss. But agree with the rest.
Lose to Ohio and IU is out of the CFP. If it can happen to Georgia it would definitely happen to IU.
lol. We’ll see. Remember when the rules were changed to ensure Ohio went to the championship game instead of IU?
Making a blanket statement like that is ridiculous.
A close loss keeps us in the CFP but we’d be playing on the road in the first round.
Georgia is out right now because they have two losses. Both of those losses are to the two SEC teams directly in front of them. Can’t put Georgia in over Ole Miss and Alabama because of H2H.
This is correct. The thing is that they will try to get in as many 2 loss SEC teams as possible. Ole Miss is now in and Georgia out.
Tonight’s bracket that was released has IU as a 7 seed playing 12 seed Alabama in Bloomington.
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