This isn’t close to being accurate.
ESPN FPI has IU at 93%
Yea. I’d love to believe ESPN’s model, whatever it is, but betting markets more accurate as we know. ESPN has us as the 2nd best chance to make the playoff — something is off with ESPN.
Tell me why. They will look at our schedule for wins over ranked teams and find none. Ole Miss has the win over Georgia. Alabama has big wins. Tennessee beat Alabama and will finish with 2 losses. Georgia will finish with 2. Need Texas to run the table and win the SEC title game to give A&M 3 losses and give another SEC team a 3rd loss.
Because 5 two loss SEC teams aren’t getting in over a 1 loss B10 team whose only loss is on the road to arguably the best team in the country. A&M isn’t getting in over Notre Dame, a team who beat them at home, and if they do somehow get in, it will be at the expense of Texas who checks notes….hasn’t beaten anybody.
ND is a lock at this point. A&M gets in the SEC title game if they beat Texas which gives them a shot. A&M vs Ole Miss for the SEC title which is nice because 1 of those teams gets a 3rd loss and is out. I agree Texas hasn’t beaten anyone but they will value the win at Michigan by 19 more than our 5 point win at home. Plus it’s Texas and they care more about that name than ours.
It’s more likely 4 SEC teams and an extra ACC or Big 12 team takes our spot. SEC is not getting 5. That precedence won’t be set year one.
ESPN projects an Ore v OSU Big Championship game. And, projects IU’s record at 11-1. They don’t project IU lower than 12th in the final rankings. MI was a de facto play-in game for IU, at 10-2 would be bypassed by a two loss SEC team.
A&M isn’t getting in over Notre Dame, a team Notre Dame beat and Notre Dame won’t get in over IU. If A&M beats Texas, Texas will be out…their best win will have been against Vanderbilt. Ole Miss lost at home to Kentucky, they need a lot to go their way.
Betting markets not buying it. -220 looks great for those confident we’re in and/or like the ESPN model.
We’ll see where they put us Tuesday. But if we’re still behind Miami, and/or Georgia…that might be a big uh oh moment. Obviously still a lot of football to be played after Tuesday. But if we’re 6th or 7th and still behind those teams, I fear what a loss at OSU would put us at. 10th, 11th maybe. At that point, beating Purdue won’t help. And we won’t have a conf champ game to help either.
Miami is done, it doesn’t matter where they are ranked. They have to win the ACC.
Whomever wins the ACC is in(of course) but if SMU wins it that might give them a reason to put two ACC teams in. Then the Big 12 mess. BYU needs to win out and Miami too. That would get us in.
They aren’t going to take a 2 loss ACC team who didn’t win their conference over a 1 loss B10 team. They left out an undefeated Florida State team last year.
We should be ahead of Miami but I think we will still be behind Georgia.
Not sure, sorry, I just did a google search for the odds.
More likely Bama jumps us than Georgia being ahead of us.
The committee will consider the conference runner up even with 2 losses. They may not view that as an actual loss. It’s been hinted at. It’s more likely than 5 SEC teams getting in.
And that’s the precedent I’m worried about. An undefeated B10 team behind a 2 loss SEC team. Opens the door wide open for the committee to put all sorts of 2, maybe even 3 loss teams over a 1 loss IU team, when it all shakes out.
The math is still probably in our favor, but if IU loses to OSU, they’ll end up one of the last at larges. And if BYU loses their conf title game, it’ll be very iffy.
It all hinges on Tuesday. We will know where we stand and if we can absorb a loss. If we can’t we will just have to win out.
I think even if we’re still at 6 or 7. We can, and probably will, still get in with a loss to OSU. It’ll just be a lot tighter than it should be.
As long as Memorial is 53K IU will have to win their way into a home game. If the committee has any option, even a BS one, we play on the road
Agreed. I have us as the first team out.
Betting markets may be trying to balance the books. IU started the season in plus territory.
And of course, the SEC (in true SEC fashion) plays only 8 conference games and almost always throws in a pud team around the 10th or 11th game of the year for the heavyweights.
