As we prepare for the post-season (BTT)...

[outlawyer]

Wisky has dominated us for quite a number of years. They're playing for a 3 or 4 seed in the BTT, we're playing for a 10 so we can avoid the Wednesday 11-14 and 12-13 games. I never thought I would say we're a bottom-feeder in the standings, but that's where we are. Positive note, though, we've beaten the 1 seed on the road and have the potential for a sweep of MSU. Rutgers and Illinois (both at 6 conf wins) will probably each win at least one more game. If that happens, IU would need to beat both of them plus either Wisky or MSU to get the 10 seed. We've lost 12 of last 13. Lose tonight and we have to win out to get to 7 conference wins (maybe winning a 3-way tie-breaker for 10 seed?). Wow. Who would have thought this when we were 12-2 overall and 3-0 in conference on Jan 3?

10 seed is intriguingly set up well for BTT. Only top 6 teams will have winning records in conference, and right now tO$U sits at No. 7 (though it likely needs another win to stay ahead of Minny). I like the potential BTT match-up with tO$U, Minny not so much. Getting the 10 seed and a W would put us in a Saturday game against a rested 2 seed (probably MSU/PU/Mich). Maybe we have no chance to beat Mich, but we've proved we can play with/beat MSU/PU. Could we make a run here and get to the BTT final? I know that's a pipe dream, but right now that's all I've got. And, it's another "must win" game tonight.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Wisky has dominated us for quite a number of years. They're playing for a 3 or 4 seed in the BTT, we're playing for a 10 so we can avoid the Wednesday 11-14 and 12-13 games. I never thought I would say we're a bottom-feeder in the standings, but that's where we are. Positive note, though, we've beaten the 1 seed on the road and have the potential for a sweep of MSU. Rutgers and Illinois (both at 6 conf wins) will probably each win at least one more game. If that happens, IU would need to beat both of them plus either Wisky or MSU to get the 10 seed. We've lost 12 of last 13. Lose tonight and we have to win out to get to 7 conference wins (maybe winning a 3-way tie-breaker for 10 seed?). Wow. Who would have thought this when we were 12-2 overall and 3-0 in conference on Jan 3?

10 seed is intriguingly set up well for BTT. Only top 6 teams will have winning records in conference, and right now tO$U sits at No. 7 (though it likely needs another win to stay ahead of Minny). I like the potential BTT match-up with tO$U, Minny not so much. Getting the 10 seed and a W would put us in a Saturday game against a rested 2 seed (probably MSU/PU/Mich). Maybe we have no chance to beat Mich, but we've proved we can play with/beat MSU/PU. Could we make a run here and get to the BTT final? I know that's a pipe dream, but right now that's all I've got. And, it's another "must win" game tonight.

Hope I'm wrong, but I fully expect a loss tonight I don't like the Happ-Morgan match-up in particular. Morgan lacks the height to affect Happ. Happ will also probably have 2 fouls each on Morgan and Davis within 10 minutes. Also, our guys have been lazy/inept all year at doubling the post and getting back and/or rotating to the IDed 3 point threats. Bad recipe for playing Wisconsin.

Illinois will be interesting. Our emotionless team seems to play relatively well on the road (v. MSU, v. Iowa), but seems to get little bump from playing at home (Iowa. Nebraska, OSU). If Phinisee & Green can handle Illinois' pressure relatively well (a big if), we match up well on the inside. Also, they only have a couple of 3 pt shooters, who are off & on....if they're off, we have a good shot.

As for a 'run' in the BTT, I think the 'best' scenerio would be a win v. OSU or Minnesota followed by another heart-breaking loss to UM, MSU or Purdue. But we'll see....

 

[kkott]

Wisky has dominated us for quite a number of years. They're playing for a 3 or 4 seed in the BTT, we're playing for a 10 so we can avoid the Wednesday 11-14 and 12-13 games. I never thought I would say we're a bottom-feeder in the standings, but that's where we are. Positive note, though, we've beaten the 1 seed on the road and have the potential for a sweep of MSU. Rutgers and Illinois (both at 6 conf wins) will probably each win at least one more game. If that happens, IU would need to beat both of them plus either Wisky or MSU to get the 10 seed. We've lost 12 of last 13. Lose tonight and we have to win out to get to 7 conference wins (maybe winning a 3-way tie-breaker for 10 seed?). Wow. Who would have thought this when we were 12-2 overall and 3-0 in conference on Jan 3?

10 seed is intriguingly set up well for BTT. Only top 6 teams will have winning records in conference, and right now tO$U sits at No. 7 (though it likely needs another win to stay ahead of Minny). I like the potential BTT match-up with tO$U, Minny not so much. Getting the 10 seed and a W would put us in a Saturday game against a rested 2 seed (probably MSU/PU/Mich). Maybe we have no chance to beat Mich, but we've proved we can play with/beat MSU/PU. Could we make a run here and get to the BTT final? I know that's a pipe dream, but right now that's all I've got. And, it's another "must win" game tonight.

winning, are you talking about winning? (Say that with either the Iverson "talking about practice" tone and inflection or the Jim Mora "playoffs" rant. I can't decide which is a better fit, so pick the one you like best!)

 

[TR32]

No one wants to play IU as a low seed except maybe Michigan. It is a very unique year.

IU has a chance tonight. They have to defend the 3 well, and try to force the drive and bad interior feeds, and as was alluded, they need Morgan and Davis to stay out of foul trouble which has been exceedingly difficult all season.

Offensively, if they can hit shots and free throws who knows what could happen?

There is bound to be another breakout win sooner or later.

 

[kkott]

No one wants to play IU as a low seed except maybe Michigan. It is a very unique year.

IU has a chance tonight. They have to defend the 3 well, and try to force the drive and bad interior feeds, and as was alluded, they need Morgan and Davis to stay out of foul trouble which has been exceedingly difficult all season.

Offensively, if they can hit shots and free throws who knows what could happen?

There is bound to be another breakout win sooner or later.

That's funny. I think everyone wants to play IU right now. Everyone's going to feel like if they just tough it out, they're going to beat us in the end, regardless if they "play well".

 

[mushroomgod_1]

That's funny. I think everyone wants to play IU right now. Everyone's going to feel like if they just tough it out, they're going to beat us in the end, regardless if they "play well".

Sad to say, I don't like our chances if we're tied with 2 minutes to go...........if we win, we'll probably have a 5-6 point lead fairly late, and just hold on. I could see that possibility.....this is a mediocre Wisconsin defensive team.

 

[kkott]

Sad to say, I don't like our chances if we're tied with 2 minutes to go...........if we win, we'll probably have a 5-6 point lead fairly late, and just hold on. I could see that possibility.....this is a mediocre Wisconsin defensive team.

I thought that when we had a 4 pt lead vs IA w 2 minutes left.

 

[LetsGoRed!]

this is a mediocre Wisconsin defensive team.

Scoring Defense: 10th nationally
Field-Goal Percentage Defense: 13th nationally

 

[T.M.P.]

this is a mediocre Wisconsin defensive team

What?

They rate 6th in overall defense. Which is the best defensive rating Gard has had since he took over for Bo.

 

[bailey777]

Wisky has dominated us for quite a number of years. They're playing for a 3 or 4 seed in the BTT, we're playing for a 10 so we can avoid the Wednesday 11-14 and 12-13 games. I never thought I would say we're a bottom-feeder in the standings, but that's where we are. Positive note, though, we've beaten the 1 seed on the road and have the potential for a sweep of MSU. Rutgers and Illinois (both at 6 conf wins) will probably each win at least one more game. If that happens, IU would need to beat both of them plus either Wisky or MSU to get the 10 seed. We've lost 12 of last 13. Lose tonight and we have to win out to get to 7 conference wins (maybe winning a 3-way tie-breaker for 10 seed?). Wow. Who would have thought this when we were 12-2 overall and 3-0 in conference on Jan 3?

10 seed is intriguingly set up well for BTT. Only top 6 teams will have winning records in conference, and right now tO$U sits at No. 7 (though it likely needs another win to stay ahead of Minny). I like the potential BTT match-up with tO$U, Minny not so much. Getting the 10 seed and a W would put us in a Saturday game against a rested 2 seed (probably MSU/PU/Mich). Maybe we have no chance to beat Mich, but we've proved we can play with/beat MSU/PU. Could we make a run here and get to the BTT final? I know that's a pipe dream, but right now that's all I've got. And, it's another "must win" game tonight.

They have all been must win games since Nebraska.

 

[iubud]

Hope I'm wrong, but I fully expect a loss tonight I don't like the Happ-Morgan match-up in particular. Morgan lacks the height to affect Happ. Happ will also probably have 2 fouls each on Morgan and Davis within 10 minutes. Also, our guys have been lazy/inept all year at doubling the post and getting back and/or rotating to the IDed 3 point threats. Bad recipe for playing Wisconsin.

Illinois will be interesting. Our emotionless team seems to play relatively well on the road (v. MSU, v. Iowa), but seems to get little bump from playing at home (Iowa. Nebraska, OSU). If Phinisee & Green can handle Illinois' pressure relatively well (a big if), we match up well on the inside. Also, they only have a couple of 3 pt shooters, who are off & on....if they're off, we have a good shot.

As for a 'run' in the BTT, I think the 'best' scenerio would be a win v. OSU or Minnesota followed by another heart-breaking loss to UM, MSU or Purdue. But we'll see....

I assume Davis would defend Happ. They both might have to with foul trouble. This would be a good time for Fitzner to back up his last performance. Moore hasn't been on the court for a long time and we may not ever see him play again.

Playing the first round would give us an opportunity for an extra win to make some sort of post season. I don't see us winning the BTT so we might as well use it to get a win or two. Outside of winning the BTT, the NIT is the best we can hope for.

It is important for this team to have post season experience even if it is the NIT. It isn't so much winning it, but getting a taste of a tournament format. I hope we can win a few games and put ourselves into the NIT.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

What?

They rate 6th in overall defense. Which is the best defensive rating Gard has had since he took over for Bo.

Did not realize that.......

I do see they don't force a lot of TOs (tied #315/351 teams) and they're only tied for 220 in rebounding margin at -.5.

All of which would seem to indicate we need to get out and run when we can, and be overly patient otherwise.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

I assume Davis would defend Happ. They both might have to with foul trouble. This would be a good time for Fitzner to back up his last performance. Moore hasn't been on the court for a long time and we may not ever see him play again.

Playing the first round would give us an opportunity for an extra win to make some sort of post season. I don't see us winning the BTT so we might as well use it to get a win or two. Outside of winning the BTT, the NIT is the best we can hope for.

It is important for this team to have post season experience even if it is the NIT. It isn't so much winning it, but getting a taste of a tournament format. I hope we can win a few games and put ourselves into the NIT.

They might put Fitzner on Happ some, with instructions to move his feet, keep on his feet, and keep his hands up. It seems to me that height generally bothers Happ more than strength. Also, I'd rather Fitzner foul out than Morgan or Davis.

Don't you need at least a.500 record to play in the NIT? If so, not much hope there.

If we did play in the NIT, would Romeo sit out?

 

[IUINSB]

Don't you need at least a.500 record to play in the NIT? If so, not much hope there.

If we did play in the NIT, would Romeo sit out?

If we play in the NIT I don't care who sits it out.

 

[bailey777]

If we play in the NIT I don't care who sits it out.

Or the CBI! Freddie boy would be all over the CBI

 

[HoosiersChamps]

Did not realize that.......

I do see they don't force a lot of TOs (tied #315/351 teams) and they're only tied for 220 in rebounding margin at -.5.

All of which would seem to indicate we need to get out and run when we can, and be overly patient otherwise.

They do get a lot of deflections though.

 

[T.M.P.]

I do see they don't force a lot of TOs (tied #315/351 teams) and they're only tied for 220 in rebounding margin at -.5.

They never have. They don't gamble, instead playing good containment and position based defense, and they don't crash offensive boards, as to get better balance on transition defense and not allow break aways. Wisconsin will always rate lower in those two stats.

Gard's did a good job with that team this year.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

+ Add in the factor that Wisconsin owns us more than any conference team over the last 20 years.....yeah, it’s a loss coming our way but, hey...”the kids played hard tonight.”

 

[bailey777]

+ Add in the factor that Wisconsin owns us more than any conference team over the last 20 years.....yeah, it’s a loss coming our way but, hey...”the kids played hard tonight.”

Wisconsin usually just slices us apart. Heck they even sliced apart the Zeller / Olidipo teams

 

[Paterfamilias]

They never have. They don't gamble, instead playing good containment and position based defense, and they don't crash offensive boards, as to get better balance on transition defense and not allow break aways. Wisconsin will always rate lower in those two stats.

Gard's did a good job with that team this year.

Your last line there is a good one. At one point last year Bucky had lost 10 of 12, including some embarrassments. They even lost three in a row at Kohl!

Gard in just his second year had managed to run Wisconsin completely off the rails according to many message board pundits. Early season injury woes took a toll, but come on man Bo would have found a way... right?

I know I'm right there giving Archie the business with the rest of the mob, but one thing that I've learned watching sports over the years is that the mob typically is wrong more than it's right... Vegas banks on it

Speaking of Vegas, the line is kind of weird tonight. IU has scored 52 or less at Assembly Hall in 4 of 6 games since Christmas. The two times we went over were vs Illinois and Iowa, ranked 70th and 109th respectively on defense. Wisconsin is ranked 6th and 339th in tempo, yet the implied score (based on spread and over/under) is 63-60.5 in favor of Wisconsin.

Just based on my contrarian approach to handicapping, I'm taking IU and the over tonight.