Another Example of the "Star" Ratings Often Being Meaningless

[76-1]

http://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sp...me-top-defensive-backs-journey-nfl/846401001/

If a guy believes that the other guy is better than him based on some recruiting hacks "star" ranking opinion made on some junior year of high school game tape, then that sort of belief can often become a self fulfilling prophecy.

Let's hope our guys realize that it's not where you start it's how and where you finish that matters...

 

[76-1]

To expand on the above:

According to an article by Bud Elliot in SB Nation,
this years ESPN, top 50 NFL draft picks will break down as follows:
26 4 or 5 "star" guys
24 3 or less "star" guys (17-3,6-2,1-0)

Take Heart all you 3 "star" or less recruits!
It's still statistically daunting for anyone to get drafted but don't let your high school "star" rating inhibit your efforts to try and get there...

It's what you do once you reach college that matters not what you did in high school...

 

[mushroomgod_1]

To expand on the above:

According to an article by Bud Elliot in SB Nation,
this years ESPN, top 50 NFL draft picks will break down as follows:
26 4 or 5 "star" guys
24 3 or less "star" guys (17-3,6-2,1-0)

Take Heart all you 3 "star" or less recruits!
It's still statistically daunting for anyone to get drafted but don't let your high school "star" rating inhibit your efforts to try and get there...

It's what you do once you reach college that matters not what you did in high school...

Understand what you're saying, but ..in any given year there may be (just guessing on the #s) 100 4 & 5* v. 900 guys who are rated as 3* (and many more 2* or not rated). So you are statistically many times more likely to be a top 50 pick if you are rated a 4 or 5*, Not because of the # of stars, but because the stars, taken as a whole, reflect reality.

Also, the stars are awarded just as much because of who is recruiting a kid v. actual study of film. The initial ratings affect recruiting, and the recruiting affects the ratings. so that in the end they have relevance for fans.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

http://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sp...me-top-defensive-backs-journey-nfl/846401001/

If a guy believes that the other guy is better than him based on some recruiting hacks "star" ranking opinion made on some junior year of high school game tape, then that sort of belief can often become a self fulfilling prophecy.

Let's hope our guys realize that it's not where you start it's how and where you finish that matters...

Because he's a good guy and grateful to Iowa, he'll probably come back and end up hurting his draft stock,

Assuming he's not hurt, he'll get the Desmond King treatment and nobody will throw in his direction. In the meantime, the scouts will start focusing on whatever things he's not really good at......

 

[iueyedoc99]

Understand what you're saying, but ..in any given year there may be (just guessing on the #s) 100 4 & 5* v. 900 guys who are rated as 3* (and many more 2* or not rated). So you are statistically many times more likely to be a top 50 pick if you are rated a 4 or 5*, Not because of the # of stars, but because the stars, taken as a whole, reflect reality.

Also, the stars are awarded just as much because of who is recruiting a kid v. actual study of film. The initial ratings affect recruiting, and the recruiting affects the ratings. so that in the end they have relevance for fans.

I see your point, but your theoretical stats are exagerated. There are at least 250 4* or higher players (see Rivals 250), and no way are there 900 3* guys (7 for every BCS team in the country). The stats support your point, just to a smaller degree than you are claiming.

Someone with more time than me could find or count the actual numbers.

 

[turney333]

Understand what you're saying, but ..in any given year there may be (just guessing on the #s) 100 4 & 5* v. 900 guys who are rated as 3* (and many more 2* or not rated). So you are statistically many times more likely to be a top 50 pick if you are rated a 4 or 5*, Not because of the # of stars, but because the stars, taken as a whole, reflect reality.

Also, the stars are awarded just as much because of who is recruiting a kid v. actual study of film. The initial ratings affect recruiting, and the recruiting affects the ratings. so that in the end they have relevance for fans.

To me the biggest takeaway from all of this is that the rating services miss to enough of a degree that it is highly plausible for teams to "overachieve" relative to ratings if they are good at evaluating talent.

 

[76-1]

To me the biggest takeaway from all of this is that the rating services miss to enough of a degree that it is highly plausible for teams to "overachieve" relative to ratings if they are good at evaluating talent.

My opinion is simply that the recruiting services pander (understandably, that's their paying customers) to the top 30 fan bases, which often influences the difference between a 4 and a 3 star ranking.

While its relatively easy to identify the 4 and 5 star guys as being up and comers, it's pretty tough to sort thru all of the 3s, 2s and the rest based on a couple of Jr year film clips and it's totally impossible to tell from those clips who has the Drive and the Will to better themselves from their Jr year of high school to their Jr year of college...

If a guy has the desire and the Will to do so, overachieving beyond their "star" rating (based on some recruiting service hacks high school evaluation of them) should simply be an expectation rather then a surprise...

 

[boilerpt]

I see your point, but your theoretical stats are exagerated. There are at least 250 4* or higher players (see Rivals 250), and no way are there 900 3* guys (7 for every BCS team in the country). The stats support your point, just to a smaller degree than you are claiming.

Someone with more time than me could find or count the actual numbers.

A quick search of 2018 recruits (Rivals database) shows 423 recruits with 4 or 5 stars. There are 1390 3-star recruits in this class. Adding in the 2-star and unrated players, there are nearly 15,000 that are 3-star or less. Assuming the same breakdown as in the original post (26/24), one is around 8 times more likely to end up in that top 50 if rated 4 or 5-star than 2 or 3-star...about 30 times more likely if we add in the unrated players.

 

[iueyedoc99]

A quick search of 2018 recruits (Rivals database) shows 423 recruits with 4 or 5 stars. There are 1390 3-star recruits in this class. Adding in the 2-star and unrated players, there are nearly 15,000 that are 3-star or less. Assuming the same breakdown as in the original post (26/24), one is around 8 times more likely to end up in that top 50 if rated 4 or 5-star than 2 or 3-star...about 30 times more likely if we add in the unrated players.

Very surprised by how high both numbers are. Where are all these kids going?

Looks like the original ratio was much closer than I would have guessed.

 

[YOTHN]

When I look at recruiting classes the stars matter as do the volume of stars. I tend to think that one out of every two (or better) 5 star recruits are pro caliber players when they leave college. One out of every four 4 star players are pro type talent when they leave college. One out of nine or ten 3 stars are that type of talent. So the volume of 3 stars improves your odds of finding more. Obviously the better the stars, the more likely you will end up with that diamond but it in no way determines who the top diamonds are going to be. Definitely not an exact science but just looking back at rosters, that tends to play itself out.

 

[sparkeyreturns]

To expand on the above:

According to an article by Bud Elliot in SB Nation,
this years ESPN, top 50 NFL draft picks will break down as follows:
26 4 or 5 "star" guys
24 3 or less "star" guys (17-3,6-2,1-0)

Take Heart all you 3 "star" or less recruits!
It's still statistically daunting for anyone to get drafted but don't let your high school "star" rating inhibit your efforts to try and get there...

It's what you do once you reach college that matters not what you did in high school...[/QUOTE

To expand on the above:

According to an article by Bud Elliot in SB Nation,
this years ESPN, top 50 NFL draft picks will break down as follows:
26 4 or 5 "star" guys
24 3 or less "star" guys (17-3,6-2,1-0)

Take Heart all you 3 "star" or less recruits!
It's still statistically daunting for anyone to get drafted but don't let your high school "star" rating inhibit your efforts to try and get there...

It's what you do once you reach college that matters not what you did in high school...