Dear Tevin,
First, congratulations on an incredible year. Post Nate getting injured, defenses really keyed on you and you still managed to do a fantastic job surpassing 2,000 yards this year. Your teammates of course get credit too, but without the normally strong passing game, you shouldered a major load and your talents and effort were recognized and appreciated by many.
I know you and your family are taking in the information, praying and will come to a decision soon on whether to declare for the NFL or return for your senior season. Whatever you do we will support as you've earned that right. But here are a few potential reasons why one final year might be worth your consideration.
1. NFL doesn't value RB's like they used to
There is more of a "treat them like cattle" mentality these days with RBs. Most teams want to platoon two to keep them healthy and though some of the special RB's do rise, it is less and less like the old days when RB's were the marquee player on an offense (Billy Sims, Walter Payton, Eric Dickerson), just look at the Colts and Patriots, they are QB/Passing driven, and both seem to have a decent to good running game without an all-pro or even highest caliber RB.
Most of the really talented good backs have not been going higher than 2nd round. If you go out and somehow go in 2nd - 4th rounds, I'm sure you'll make that team, but contract won't be off the charts, not like a #1 pick which I think you can guarantee next year if you put anything close to this season together, which as you'll see seems very possible.
2. IU offense AND defense will be much better next season than this year
Let's be honest, ZD was not quite ready to play and the Freshmen receivers weren't either. ZD did improve each week, but the passing game was about 25% of what it normally is. The WR's dropped way too many passes as well which didn't help his cause either. Hence everyone knew it was coming to you which didn't make things easy.
Next year, Nate should be back and we know he can throw the football. If the Kelly Juco kid comes to IU that will be a legit #2 QB option and maybe ZD is more viable next year. (I hope Covington moves back to LB to keep bolstering the Defense) The current WR's will have this season's experience, spring ball and summer/fall camp to improve. There is a good looking Florida WR freshman coming in whose getting rave reviews and could be a Juco added too. Plus the TE play will be better and Fuchs will be bigger/stronger as well as Friend in the mix. With a legit, viable passing game, things open up for you.
Defense this year under Knorr is one we would have love to have any of last few years. Playing hard, getting turnovers, gave us ball back twice vs. Ohio St. only down 8 pts in 4th Q. So many young players getting time and really improving. Add more talent to their experience this year and add an offense that can keep them off the field longer and this will be a solid group to help give the offense the ball back more often - so you can keep breaking big ones.
3. Offensive line will be solid
You should have about 3 returning starters, another 3-4 who have played and there are 3 massive guys who RS this year who will be a year older and bigger ready and wanting playing time. You know how much they respect you now. If you show the team the love and come back, I guarantee they will try to move mountains for you next year given you will be...(#4)
4. A legit Heisman Candidate from Day 1
This year the bowl chances went out the door when Nate went down and very hard to win the Heisman with a losing record. The revamped offense is discussed in #2-#3 above. The defense has improved tremendously with a lot of young players starting or getting major minutes. Like the WR's, they will surely be better next year too.
There are no gimmies, but the first 4 games next year all seem winnable. Given the way team played this year and having you, improved passing game on offense and the much improved defense all on same page, I can't see how IU does NOT win at least 2 B10 games, and mabye up to 4 if things break nicely. An 8-4 IU team would go to a very respectable bowl game and no question you could remain firmly in the Heisman mix all season long.
I know you don't play for your own accolades, but that media attention could/would help the IU program immensly. And as a senior, with a great line and passing game, you may see holes you could only dream of this season. It would be an amazing chance to do back to back 2,000 yard seasons, go out with great bowl game and a serious chance to win the Heisman trophy, which very few people have that opportunity and you are uniquely situated next year to be one of those who could.
5. Insurance Policy
In today's world of athletics, I believe the NCAA even can help pay for or at least provide guidance on a potential insurance policy to cover you for loss of proceeds if you were to have a career threatening injury. I don't like to see anyone play in fear and don't think you should either. But having that peace of mind in your back pocket could allow you to play hard, enjoy the season, your teammates and know you have a legitimate annuity for yourself should an injury happen.
6. A degree
I don't know how close you are to graduating already, but I know your family values education and with a degree, there is both pride of completion as well as knowledge you have an education for a day when football could go away and playing days are over. I know you could still get it in the off-season, but once you are a pro, there are training demands, a desire to rest your body and doing online classes or going back to school during off-season may not be as appealing as getting it done for good next year. My guess is with summer school, you could graduate in January next year and then just train for the draft from Jan - April. Imagine: Bowl game, Heisman experience, graduation and take that momentum with you to the NFL!
That's enough rationale that I'm sure you already realize. You are only young once and the working world can be a tad over-rated! To be on a college campus, playing with teammates who love each other/have each other's back is truly rare, unique opportunity that people look back on forever in positive light. Holding a Heisman could be a life time financial game changer too as golf outings and personal appearances can be had for years, or college TV commentary, or like AT, future athletic department opportunities.
The NFL would be awesome and I hope you get a chance to shine at the next level. But for a program that has been down for awhile and is inches away from crossing over to the other side, you could have a profound impact on making that change permanent in what would potentially be an amazing senior year for you and a breakout turnaround bowl year for the team.
But as promised, there are no wrong answers or hard feelings if you go to the NFL this year in the end. You have been awesome to watch and you've earned the support for whatever decision you make. You'll have lifetime fans whenever you go pro, but times that by 5x if you come back for one more year to IU. You could write your lifetime ticket in Indiana!
Best of luck!
First, congratulations on an incredible year. Post Nate getting injured, defenses really keyed on you and you still managed to do a fantastic job surpassing 2,000 yards this year. Your teammates of course get credit too, but without the normally strong passing game, you shouldered a major load and your talents and effort were recognized and appreciated by many.
I know you and your family are taking in the information, praying and will come to a decision soon on whether to declare for the NFL or return for your senior season. Whatever you do we will support as you've earned that right. But here are a few potential reasons why one final year might be worth your consideration.
1. NFL doesn't value RB's like they used to
There is more of a "treat them like cattle" mentality these days with RBs. Most teams want to platoon two to keep them healthy and though some of the special RB's do rise, it is less and less like the old days when RB's were the marquee player on an offense (Billy Sims, Walter Payton, Eric Dickerson), just look at the Colts and Patriots, they are QB/Passing driven, and both seem to have a decent to good running game without an all-pro or even highest caliber RB.
Most of the really talented good backs have not been going higher than 2nd round. If you go out and somehow go in 2nd - 4th rounds, I'm sure you'll make that team, but contract won't be off the charts, not like a #1 pick which I think you can guarantee next year if you put anything close to this season together, which as you'll see seems very possible.
2. IU offense AND defense will be much better next season than this year
Let's be honest, ZD was not quite ready to play and the Freshmen receivers weren't either. ZD did improve each week, but the passing game was about 25% of what it normally is. The WR's dropped way too many passes as well which didn't help his cause either. Hence everyone knew it was coming to you which didn't make things easy.
Next year, Nate should be back and we know he can throw the football. If the Kelly Juco kid comes to IU that will be a legit #2 QB option and maybe ZD is more viable next year. (I hope Covington moves back to LB to keep bolstering the Defense) The current WR's will have this season's experience, spring ball and summer/fall camp to improve. There is a good looking Florida WR freshman coming in whose getting rave reviews and could be a Juco added too. Plus the TE play will be better and Fuchs will be bigger/stronger as well as Friend in the mix. With a legit, viable passing game, things open up for you.
Defense this year under Knorr is one we would have love to have any of last few years. Playing hard, getting turnovers, gave us ball back twice vs. Ohio St. only down 8 pts in 4th Q. So many young players getting time and really improving. Add more talent to their experience this year and add an offense that can keep them off the field longer and this will be a solid group to help give the offense the ball back more often - so you can keep breaking big ones.
3. Offensive line will be solid
You should have about 3 returning starters, another 3-4 who have played and there are 3 massive guys who RS this year who will be a year older and bigger ready and wanting playing time. You know how much they respect you now. If you show the team the love and come back, I guarantee they will try to move mountains for you next year given you will be...(#4)
4. A legit Heisman Candidate from Day 1
This year the bowl chances went out the door when Nate went down and very hard to win the Heisman with a losing record. The revamped offense is discussed in #2-#3 above. The defense has improved tremendously with a lot of young players starting or getting major minutes. Like the WR's, they will surely be better next year too.
There are no gimmies, but the first 4 games next year all seem winnable. Given the way team played this year and having you, improved passing game on offense and the much improved defense all on same page, I can't see how IU does NOT win at least 2 B10 games, and mabye up to 4 if things break nicely. An 8-4 IU team would go to a very respectable bowl game and no question you could remain firmly in the Heisman mix all season long.
I know you don't play for your own accolades, but that media attention could/would help the IU program immensly. And as a senior, with a great line and passing game, you may see holes you could only dream of this season. It would be an amazing chance to do back to back 2,000 yard seasons, go out with great bowl game and a serious chance to win the Heisman trophy, which very few people have that opportunity and you are uniquely situated next year to be one of those who could.
5. Insurance Policy
In today's world of athletics, I believe the NCAA even can help pay for or at least provide guidance on a potential insurance policy to cover you for loss of proceeds if you were to have a career threatening injury. I don't like to see anyone play in fear and don't think you should either. But having that peace of mind in your back pocket could allow you to play hard, enjoy the season, your teammates and know you have a legitimate annuity for yourself should an injury happen.
6. A degree
I don't know how close you are to graduating already, but I know your family values education and with a degree, there is both pride of completion as well as knowledge you have an education for a day when football could go away and playing days are over. I know you could still get it in the off-season, but once you are a pro, there are training demands, a desire to rest your body and doing online classes or going back to school during off-season may not be as appealing as getting it done for good next year. My guess is with summer school, you could graduate in January next year and then just train for the draft from Jan - April. Imagine: Bowl game, Heisman experience, graduation and take that momentum with you to the NFL!
That's enough rationale that I'm sure you already realize. You are only young once and the working world can be a tad over-rated! To be on a college campus, playing with teammates who love each other/have each other's back is truly rare, unique opportunity that people look back on forever in positive light. Holding a Heisman could be a life time financial game changer too as golf outings and personal appearances can be had for years, or college TV commentary, or like AT, future athletic department opportunities.
The NFL would be awesome and I hope you get a chance to shine at the next level. But for a program that has been down for awhile and is inches away from crossing over to the other side, you could have a profound impact on making that change permanent in what would potentially be an amazing senior year for you and a breakout turnaround bowl year for the team.
But as promised, there are no wrong answers or hard feelings if you go to the NFL this year in the end. You have been awesome to watch and you've earned the support for whatever decision you make. You'll have lifetime fans whenever you go pro, but times that by 5x if you come back for one more year to IU. You could write your lifetime ticket in Indiana!
Best of luck!
