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All tied up going into the 9th Polls

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mcmurtry66

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Mar 14, 2019
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I remember when bush won in 04 I believe. It was a clear victory and I guess either heritage or Claremont or somewhere declared it The Mandate. Some similarities to today. Family life. Culture. I think what we’re going to have today is the opposite of a mandate. Two polar candidates with constituents with polar views of the country and culture. Hardly a mandate.

It’d be nice if the winner would be cognizant of same and temper policy and rhetoric. But after Biden’s first year I guess that’s off the table. Winner take all unfortunately
 
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Ditching Biden for somebody -- even Harris, who is a mediocre politician -- was a wise move for the Democrats. He seemed all but certain to lose and the data on that had only been getting more convincing and irrefutable. The conventional wisdom is that it was the debate from hell that made them scramble in favor of the switch. But clearly it had been a topic of conversation in Dem quarters for a while.

I used to think it was unwise to wait as long as they did to change horses -- that the new candidate, whoever it was, would need time to mesh with voters. But I'm starting to think it was actually pretty shrewd. Trump is widely known, but very unpopular by historical standards. It seems to me that the short time window has been working in her favor -- because she can just be kind of blank-slatish and say "Whatever I am...I'm not him."

And that just may be enough for her.

Also, it would be fascinating to learn the nature of all the discussions that ultimately led to that debate being scheduled in late June. In retrospect, Trump was foolish to agree to that.
 
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crazed_hoosier2 said:
Ditching Biden for somebody -- even Harris, who is a mediocre politician -- was a wise move for the Democrats. He seemed all but certain to lose and the data on that had only been getting more convincing and irrefutable. The conventional wisdom is that it was the debate from hell that made them scramble in favor of the switch. But clearly it had been a topic of conversation in Dem quarters for a while.

I used to think it was unwise to wait as long as they did to change horses -- that the new candidate, whoever it was, would need time to mesh with voters. But I'm starting to think it was actually pretty shrewd. Trump is widely known, but very unpopular by historical standards. It seems to me that the short time window has been working in her favor -- because she can just be kind of blank-slatish and say "Whatever I am...I'm not him."

And that just may be enough for her.

Also, it would be fascinating to learn the nature of all the discussions that ultimately led to that debate being scheduled in late June. In retrospect, Trump was foolish to agree to that.
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Shrewd is a good word. The Dems played this perfectly - in all ways: from dumping Biden, to nominating Harris fast, to having her sanitize her record and move to the middle ish in her rhetoric. It’s really been a masterful job by the Dems. And reading between the lines I do believe the Dems timed the debate to set Biden up to fail. He was insistent on running and polling terribly. A master class in politics

While Vance talks about cat ladies and trump calls a woman miss piggy
 
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mcmurtry66 said:
to having her sanitize her record and move to the middle ish in her rhetoric.
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I saw where Bernie Sanders kind of let the cat out of the bag on Meet the Press over the weekend when he was asked about her modifying so many positions to ones that are more moderate and less progressive.

He made what used to be called a "Kinsley Gaffe" -- which is when a politician says something that's true but that he would be well-advised to leave unsaid. He said that VP Harris was being "pragmatic" and making these shifts (which he also lamented) just to win the election.

Well, anybody with half a brain would know this is the case. But surrogates like Sanders aren't supposed to say it publicly.

 
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crazed_hoosier2 said:
I saw where Bernie Sanders kind of let the cat out of the bag on Meet the Press over the weekend when he was asked about her modifying so many positions to ones that are more moderate and less progressive.

He made what used to be called a "Kinsley Gaffe" -- which is when a politician says something that's true but that he would be well-advised to leave unsaid. He said that VP Harris was being "pragmatic" and making these shifts (which he also lamented) just to win the election.

Well, anybody with half a brain would know this is the case. But surrogates like Sanders aren't supposed to say it publicly.

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Lol yeah. As the recruits say we’re being honey dicked by her. Her record speaks for itself. Asking us to believe otherwise is silliness
 
crazed_hoosier2 said:
I saw where Bernie Sanders kind of let the cat out of the bag on Meet the Press over the weekend when he was asked about her modifying so many positions to ones that are more moderate and less progressive.

He made what used to be called a "Kinsley Gaffe" -- which is when a politician says something that's true but that he would be well-advised to leave unsaid. He said that VP Harris was being "pragmatic" and making these shifts (which he also lamented) just to win the election.

Well, anybody with half a brain would know this is the case. But surrogates like Sanders aren't supposed to say it publicly.

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Its such a crazy dynamic. The Democrats are still clinging to whatever shred of normalcy they can find. Even some of your descriptions of Sanders and his comments, are just taken as they are because that's conventional wisdom and common knowledge.

Are there "surrogates" on the GOP side any more? Really, practically, there's just Trump. Strategies and pragmatic approaches really shouldn't apply any more on the GOP side.

Its one of the more fascinating phenomena I've ever witnessed. And seemingly every time I start to warm up to the notion that the disruption and fundamental changes in approach and thoughts that Trump forces, are a good thing...he'll go on some weird Truth Social bender, or I'll hear him in an interview, and I'm immediately pulled back..."Nope, he's awful. Historically awful. I can't square it."
 
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IUNorth said:
Its such a crazy dynamic. The Democrats are still clinging to whatever shred of normalcy they can find. Even some of your descriptions of Sanders and his comments, are just taken as they are because that's conventional wisdom and common knowledge.

Are there "surrogates" on the GOP side any more? Really, practically, there's just Trump. Strategies and pragmatic approaches really shouldn't apply any more on the GOP side.

Its one of the more fascinating phenomena I've ever witnessed. And seemingly every time I start to warm up to the notion that the disruption and fundamental changes in approach and thoughts that Trump forces, are a good thing...he'll go on some weird Truth Social bender, or I'll hear him in an interview, and I'm immediately pulled back..."Nope, he's awful. Historically awful. I can't square it."
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Donald Trump takes counsel from absolutely nobody. Of all the enemies he sees around him (and there are a lot), none is more formidable than himself. And these aspects of his character are insuperable. I don't think he's ever even considered the possibility that he was wrong about something...or that somebody else might know more about a subject than he does.

And, of all his many flaws, this is almost certainly the most problematic.

I was a little bit hopeful that he would choose somebody like DeSantis, Haley, or even Burgum as his runningmate -- somebody who strikes me as being a plausible POTUS. I've never been a big Mike Pence fan. But he at least cleared that bar. Nothing against JD Vance as a person, but he doesn't exactly strike me as being cut out for that office. And I can't honestly say for sure that this wasn't a feature, rather than a bug, of his being chosen.

It's not hard for me to understand why there are prominent conservatives who would rather have a left-wing POTUS than Donald Trump. And I'm not talking about the RINO types. I mean actual, card-carrying conservatives.

Personally, I can't see any compelling reason to vote for Kamala. Most of her policy ideas (even the "moderate" ones) strike me as awful. But it's not enough to get me to pull the lever for Trump again.
 
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crazed_hoosier2 said:
Donald Trump takes counsel from absolutely nobody. Of all the enemies he sees around him (and there are a lot), none is more formidable than himself. And these aspects of his character are insuperable. I don't think he's ever even considered the possibility that he was wrong about something...or that somebody else might know more about a subject than he does.

And, of all his many flaws, this is almost certainly the most problematic.

I was a little bit hopeful that he would choose somebody like DeSantis, Haley, or even Burgum as his runningmate -- somebody who strikes me as being a plausible POTUS. I've never been a big Mike Pence fan. But he at least cleared that bar. Nothing against JD Vance as a person, but he doesn't exactly strike me as being cut out for that office. And I can't honestly say for sure that this wasn't a feature, rather than a bug, of his being chosen.

It's not hard for me to understand why there are prominent conservatives who would rather have a left-wing POTUS than Donald Trump. And I'm not talking about the RINO types. I mean actual, card-carrying conservatives.

Personally, I can't see any compelling reason to vote for Kamala. Most of her policy ideas (even the "moderate" ones) strike me as awful. But it's not enough to get me to pull the lever for Trump again.
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Trump is a narcissist. Not a good quality
 
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crazed_hoosier2 said:
Donald Trump takes counsel from absolutely nobody. Of all the enemies he sees around him (and there are a lot), none is more formidable than himself. And these aspects of his character are insuperable. I don't think he's ever even considered the possibility that he was wrong about something...or that somebody else might know more about a subject than he does.

And, of all his many flaws, this is almost certainly the most problematic.

I was a little bit hopeful that he would choose somebody like DeSantis, Haley, or even Burgum as his runningmate -- somebody who strikes me as being a plausible POTUS. I've never been a big Mike Pence fan. But he at least cleared that bar. Nothing against JD Vance as a person, but he doesn't exactly strike me as being cut out for that office. And I can't honestly say for sure that this wasn't a feature, rather than a bug, of his being chosen.

It's not hard for me to understand why there are prominent conservatives who would rather have a left-wing POTUS than Donald Trump. And I'm not talking about the RINO types. I mean actual, card-carrying conservatives.

Personally, I can't see any compelling reason to vote for Kamala. Most of her policy ideas (even the "moderate" ones) strike me as awful. But it's not enough to get me to pull the lever for Trump again.
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does anybody really think kamala, if elected, will be making the policy decisions?
 
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dr.jb said:
does anybody really think kamala, if elected, will be making the policy decisions?
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I don't know. But does it really matter?

A good leader seeks and accepts counsel and advice from people who have expertise in the field/fields that are relevant to whatever issue is being deliberated. There are usually different schools of thought among the people who do have the proper expertise. And I think leaders are best served when they hear a range of arguments -- most importantly arguments that cut against any grain of organizational groupthink.

It's certainly true that poor leaders can and will be guided by manipulative advisors (think: Harvey Korman's character in Blazing Saddles). But, for me, what matters most isn't who is actually making the calls, but what those calls are.
 
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dr.jb said:
agreed, but she will be "handled" just like they did the big guy

maybe even more so
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FWIW, back in 2016, somebody asked Bob Dole who he would prefer between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. He said that he'd prefer Trump over Cruz, because Trump could be more easily manipulated (or words to that effect).

And he was probably right about that.
 
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crazed_hoosier2 said:
FWIW, back in 2016, somebody asked Bob Dole who he would prefer between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. He said that he'd prefer Trump over Cruz, because Trump could be more easily manipulated (or words to that effect).

And he was probably right about that.
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bob dole's humor came out too late. he was on leno or one of those after the election and leno asked him how he's been doing. and dole goes
oh great great. yeah just been keeping myself busy. joined a law firm in dc
leno goes oh that's wonderful. how long have you been with the firm.
dole goes a little over six months now.
leno oh that's wonderful. good guys?
dole definitely! one of these days i'm going to have get over there and meet em

😆😆😆😆
 
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Every male inside Kamala’s orbit seemingly needs to behave like a sitcom dad. Walz, Biden. “I like Ice Cream, Choco, Choco, Chip!”

Serious men, need not apply. That would be sexist.
 
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I hate to break up this old man crying fest, but we’re starting to run away with this. We got Harris back on her heels.



People don’t care about mean tweets. They care that ribeyes costs 15 bucks and their city has been invaded by Haitians who are eating their ducks and cats.




 
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snarlcakes said:
I hate to break up this old man crying fest, but we’re starting to run away with this. We got Harris back on her heels.

View embedded media


People don’t care about mean tweets. They care that ribeyes costs 15 bucks and their city has been invaded by Haitians who are eating their ducks and cats.

View embedded media



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I don’t follow polls religiously. But, from what I have looked at, I have a hard time understanding why Trump would be so heavily favored in some of those swing states.

I’m not saying it’s not possible. I just haven’t looked at polling data that would explain these kinds of odds.
 
crazed_hoosier2 said:
I don’t follow polls religiously. But, from what I have looked at, I have a hard time understanding why Trump would be so heavily favored in some of those swing states.

I’m not saying it’s not possible. I just haven’t looked at polling data that would explain these kinds of odds.
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He's not. Look at the RCP poll averages.
 
mcmurtry66 said:

I remember when bush won in 04 I believe. It was a clear victory and I guess either heritage or Claremont or somewhere declared it The Mandate. Some similarities to today. Family life. Culture. I think what we’re going to have today is the opposite of a mandate. Two polar candidates with constituents with polar views of the country and culture. Hardly a mandate.

It’d be nice if the winner would be cognizant of same and temper policy and rhetoric. But after Biden’s first year I guess that’s off the table. Winner take all unfortunately
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M66, given as you state,"two polar candidates with constituents with polar views of the country and culture" how can there be a winner?

It has often been said a democracy with the people too divided cannot stand.

Everyone ends up a loser.
 
crazed_hoosier2 said:
I don’t follow polls religiously. But, from what I have looked at, I have a hard time understanding why Trump would be so heavily favored in some of those swing states.

I’m not saying it’s not possible. I just haven’t looked at polling data that would explain these kinds of odds.
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That one always skews towards Trump. They all have swung back the past couple of weeks in Trump's direction. It's basically a toss up at this point in my opinion.
 
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Aloha Hoosier said:
He's not. Look at the RCP poll averages.
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At some level I can understand it. But only if you’re willing to engage in poll-skewing.

I know that polls in Wisconsin badly underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020.

The final RCP avg in Wisconsin 2020 was Biden +6.7. The actual result was Biden +0.7%. The final RCP avg in Wisconsin 2016 was Clinton +6.5. The actual result was Trump +0.7%.

So it’s not unreasonable to speculate that they could miss a third time. But I don’t think other battleground states had nearly that much error.

Anyway, only time will tell.
 
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crazed_hoosier2 said:
I don’t follow polls religiously. But, from what I have looked at, I have a hard time understanding why Trump would be so heavily favored in some of those swing states.

I’m not saying it’s not possible. I just haven’t looked at polling data that would explain these kinds of odds.
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Those are betting odds, not polls. I think a lot of people realize Trump is polling much better than he did vs Biden in swing states and so, their money is on him pulling in those swing states.

I think I heard today that he lost because of 80,000 total votes in swing states. That's not much to make up.
 
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mcmurtry66 said:
Arrogance and confidence aren’t the same as narcissism. It’s a personality disorder evident with him
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Ok..... And not disagreeing. But to relax others of this---expecially Biden, is being quite naive. Even more so when you figure that Joe was found guklity of abusing his Presidential powers, to benefit his son, himself, etc...putting this country in "danger".
 
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IUfanBorden said:
Ok..... And not disagreeing. But to relax others of this---expecially Biden, is being quite naive. Even more so when you figure that Joe was found guklity of abusing his Presidential powers, to benefit his son, himself, etc...putting this country in "danger".
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Biden was horrible. And Harris her first year and record disqualify her as a radical lefty. I’m all in on trump but doesn’t mean he’s still not an awful choice
 
IUfanBorden said:
Ok..... And not disagreeing. But to relax others of this---expecially Biden, is being quite naive. Even more so when you figure that Joe was found guklity of abusing his Presidential powers, to benefit his son, himself, etc...putting this country in "danger".
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Found guilty? You embarrass yourself.
 
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IUfanBorden said:
But Trump is mean...slept around...Blah, blah and blah...

People biting off their noses, to spite thier face.
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There is no comparison in the 250 year history of this country to Trump. Not even close. Murt is right. He’s a pathological narcissist and is also showing signs of dementia now. I wouldn’t let him drive my lawnmower now let alone lead this country
 
WhyisIUBBcursed said:
There is no comparison in the 250 year history of this country to Trump. Not even close. Murt is right. He’s a pathological narcissist and is also showing signs of dementia now. I wouldn’t let him drive my lawnmower now let alone lead this country
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I’ll still vote for him. I’ll take anyone over a progressive.
 
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WhyisIUBBcursed said:
There is no comparison in the 250 year history of this country to Trump. Not even close. Murt is right. He’s a pathological narcissist and is also showing signs of dementia now. I wouldn’t let him drive my lawnmower now let alone lead this country
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Riiiiiiiiiight.....

Dementia didnt seem to matter with Joe. And lets talk about being a narcissist----Ummm, Joe.

Go ahead, vote for Harris---Lets see how this turns out. Shes basically lying to you---and you dont care. ANd why? Because she's not Trump.
 
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Aloha Hoosier said:
Found guilty? You embarrass yourself.
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There ya go, dancing around words....Neve addressing the issue. Again, someone speaks ill of Joe or Kamala, and there you are---defending them like crazy.

You dont wanna "attack" Kamala---but no issue always defending her, while always attacking Trump.

Republican my ass.
 
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IUfanBorden said:
There ya go, dancing around words....Neve addressing the issue. Again, someone speaks ill of Joe or Kamala, and there you are---defending them like crazy.

You dont wanna "attack" Kamala---but no issue always defending her, while always attacking Trump.

Republican my ass.
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Words mean something. Biden wasn’t “found guilty” of any crimes. Not in an impeachment and not in a trial. Fact is they really have no evidence of a crime.

Let’s be clear here. Being a Republican doesn’t require being a liar. It doesn’t require denial of facts either. It also doesn’t require attacking political opponents dishonestly. All this has been taken to extremes since Trump. I find it extremely embarrassing and shameful as a Republican.
 
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