All these tariffs....and not a one on Russia.

[UTFO]

Does anything else need be said?

What does this tell the free world? WHAT DOES THIS TELL RUSSIA?

The markets have lost over 12% since Trump took over. That's almost as bad as GWB's first 90 days.

 

[All4You]

Does anything else need be said?

What does this tell the free world? WHAT DOES THIS TELL RUSSIA?

The markets have lost over 12% since Trump took over. That's almost as bad as GWB's first 90 days.

In case you hadn't noticed, Russian imports to the US and US exports to Russia have dropped by 90% since the Ukraine invasion due to sanctions. Literally, the total import/export between the two countries is around 4 billion a year, with most being medicine exported there and fertilizer being imported here. Very basic, very small.

 

[ribbont]

Does anything else need be said?

What does this tell the free world? WHAT DOES THIS TELL RUSSIA?

The markets have lost over 12% since Trump took over. That's almost as bad as GWB's first 90 days.

Tells me he is in the middle of a peace. Of course, you just want the Biden strategy: let the killing keep on rolling! Woohoo!

As for 12%? Big f'ng deal. Biden's economic decisions gave us -18% painfully over a 12 month period with no safe haven in bonds, down 13% that year.

You are such a tool.

 

[Eppy99]

Tells me he is in the middle of a peace. Of course, you just want the Biden strategy: let the killing keep on rolling! Woohoo!

As for 12%? Big f'ng deal. Biden's economic decisions gave us -18% painfully over a 12 month period with no safe haven in bonds, down 13% that year.

You are such a tool.

What year are you referring to Biden’s market loss? There certainly are numbers that were up and down. He inherited a Covid market but enjoyed the success of a tech boom, mainly because of AI (of which he had no control over).

As for the 12% loss, let’s not be so dismissive. That number really hurts for a lot of people. I’m losing money in the face of sending 2 kids to college with a 3rd down the road. And if you’re in retirement or planning to do so soon you’re also scared. So please don’t be such an A-hole and let’s watch the markets together hoping for a rebound. I think we all can agree on that.

As for spending, I can’t speak for everyone but we’re cutting back significantly until we have a greater sense of where the economy is going.

 

[ribbont]

What year are you referring to Biden’s market loss? There certainly are numbers that were up and down. He inherited a Covid market but enjoyed the success of a tech boom, mainly because of AI (of which he had no control over).

As for the 12% loss, let’s not be so dismissive. That number really hurts for a lot of people. I’m losing money in the face of sending 2 kids to college with a 3rd down the road. And if you’re in retirement or planning to do so soon you’re also scared. So please don’t be such an A-hole and let’s watch the markets together hoping for a rebound. I think we all can agree on that.

As for spending, I can’t speak for everyone but we’re cutting back significantly until we have a greater sense of where the economy is going.

2022. SP500 down 18%, AGG down 13%, NASDAQ down 33%.

And 12% only hurts if your selling today. I am like you with 2 in college and one starting in the fall. And I am planning for retirement and actually am a planner. Have been doing it for 26 years.

Some history:

The S&P 500 experiences a market correction of more than 5% roughly once a year, and a correction of 10% or more occurs about once every 30 months.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
5% or more decline: Occurs about once a year.
10% or more decline: Occurs about once every 30 months.
15% or more decline: Occurs about once every 5 years.
20% or more decline (bear market): Occurs about once every 6 years.
Historical Context: Since the early 1980s, there's been a greater than 5% drawdown in the S&P 500 Index in every year but two (1995 and 2017).

So this not abnormal, especially after a good market in 23 and 24.

And I'll not be an a-hole to Mr. Drive-By when he decides to engage in a discussion instead of being a tool.

 

[BCCHoosier]

2022. SP500 down 18%, AGG down 13%, NASDAQ down 33%.

And 12% only hurts if your selling today. I am like you with 2 in college and one starting in the fall. And I am planning for retirement and actually am a planner. Have been doing it for 26 years.

Some history:

The S&P 500 experiences a market correction of more than 5% roughly once a year, and a correction of 10% or more occurs about once every 30 months.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
5% or more decline: Occurs about once a year.
10% or more decline: Occurs about once every 30 months.
15% or more decline: Occurs about once every 5 years.
20% or more decline (bear market): Occurs about once every 6 years.
Historical Context: Since the early 1980s, there's been a greater than 5% drawdown in the S&P 500 Index in every year but two (1995 and 2017).

So this not abnormal, especially after a good market in 23 and 24.

And I'll not be an a-hole to Mr. Drive-By when he decides to engage in a discussion instead of being a tool.

You are correct that drops are normal. But this was ham handed and forced. It didn't have to go down this way.

Unless his goal is to crash us fast and force the Fed to lower rates.

Either way I've enjoyed the volatility. I seldom trade my 401k but this was too easy to miss. Moved a lot to cash Feb 20 and 21st. Deciding whether to buy back in today or wait a bit more. I know I can't time the absolute bottom.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

In case you hadn't noticed, Russian imports to the US and US exports to Russia have dropped by 90% since the Ukraine invasion due to sanctions. Literally, the total import/export between the two countries is around 4 billion a year, with most being medicine exported there and fertilizer being imported here. Very basic, very small.

It is very small, but probably more than the two islands only inhabited by penguins. It isn't a big deal at the same point, the visual sucks.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

And I'll not be an a-hole to Mr. Drive-By when he decides to engage in a discussion instead of being a tool.

You are right, we could deal with his flame bait if he stuck around to defend it. But drive by posting should not be respected.

 

[Bill4411]

Does anything else need be said?

What does this tell the free world? WHAT DOES THIS TELL RUSSIA?

The markets have lost over 12% since Trump took over. That's almost as bad as GWB's first 90 days.

He did tariff Ukraine probably because they are such freeloading bastards

 

[Eppy99]

What year are you referring to Biden’s market loss? There certainly are numbers that were up and down. He inherited a Covid market but enjoyed the success of a tech boom, mainly because of AI (of which he had no control over).

As for the 12% loss, let’s not be so dismissive. That number really hurts for a lot of people. I’m losing money in the face of sending 2 kids to college with a 3rd down the road. And if you’re in retirement or planning to do so soon you’re also scared. So please don’t be such an A-hole and let’s watch the markets together hoping for a rebound. I think we all can agree on that.

As for spending, I can’t speak for everyone but we’re cutting back significantly until we have a greater sense of where the economy is going.

I took a look and you’re correct, the SAP dropped 18% but we should look at the entire picture for his remaining two years. The S&P rebounded in 2023 with a 26% gain and continued its rise in 2024 with another 25%. Yes inflation sucked, but let’s not cook stats that only work for a single argument.

Given that my kid #2 is starting school this fall I am worried. I have enough money for each to get through undergrad school, but I’m now worried about grad school at this rate. My middle daughter already has her mind set on law school. She’ll be a freshman this fall at Loyola of Chicago. I’m praying we’ll see a rebound. It’s just anxiety provoking as you know.

As for playing the long game, I’m with you. I’m not one that jumps ship and takes a loss. At times I’ve gone down with the titanic on certain stocks. It hasn’t scared me from putting money in the market, but taught me to be a little more selective. I learned this lesson when I bought Dryships. I was taking advantage of dry shipping that was having a boom because of china’s building. And then the dry Baltic index fell and they stock went from like $100 down to under $5. I was green and didn’t know what to do, so I held onto it. I was experiencing FOMO when I bought it. After that I learned to do my own research. It’s taught me well in fantasy sports too.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

2022. SP500 down 18%, AGG down 13%, NASDAQ down 33%.

And 12% only hurts if your selling today. I am like you with 2 in college and one starting in the fall. And I am planning for retirement and actually am a planner. Have been doing it for 26 years.

Some history:

The S&P 500 experiences a market correction of more than 5% roughly once a year, and a correction of 10% or more occurs about once every 30 months.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
5% or more decline: Occurs about once a year.
10% or more decline: Occurs about once every 30 months.
15% or more decline: Occurs about once every 5 years.
20% or more decline (bear market): Occurs about once every 6 years.
Historical Context: Since the early 1980s, there's been a greater than 5% drawdown in the S&P 500 Index in every year but two (1995 and 2017).

So this not abnormal, especially after a good market in 23 and 24.

And I'll not be an a-hole to Mr. Drive-By when he decides to engage in a discussion instead of being a tool.

Markets came in excited about Trump. The way he has gone about things has spooked them. Markets don’t like volatility and uncertainty. Period.

 

[Mark Milton]

2022. SP500 down 18%, AGG down 13%, NASDAQ down 33%.

And 12% only hurts if your selling today. I am like you with 2 in college and one starting in the fall. And I am planning for retirement and actually am a planner. Have been doing it for 26 years.

Some history:

The S&P 500 experiences a market correction of more than 5% roughly once a year, and a correction of 10% or more occurs about once every 30 months.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
5% or more decline: Occurs about once a year.
10% or more decline: Occurs about once every 30 months.
15% or more decline: Occurs about once every 5 years.
20% or more decline (bear market): Occurs about once every 6 years.
Historical Context: Since the early 1980s, there's been a greater than 5% drawdown in the S&P 500 Index in every year but two (1995 and 2017).

So this not abnormal, especially after a good market in 23 and 24.

And I'll not be an a-hole to Mr. Drive-By when he decides to engage in a discussion instead of being a tool.

I understand that correction aspects of the market happen a ton. It isn't done correcting--if that is even what this is. These were policy decisions that drove the market down, and it will keep going down ---Market set for a 1400 drop today with only China announcing its 34% tariffs on all US goods. We haven't seen what the EU and Canada will do at this point. At what point does a correction become a bed shitting moment?

I represent one of the largest US electrical engineering and contracting firms--we rewrote their standard terms and conditions 3 weeks ago to include a paragraph regarding potential tariffs and building a pricing matrix based upon % of tariffs. In the last week, two projects in the middle of design development were cancelled because of escalation of materials costs that exists now (copper/steel/lumber), and the guaranteed further increase from tariffs.

These are clear policy decisions that will weigh heavily for months--not just simple corrections.

 

[All4You]

It is very small, but probably more than the two islands only inhabited by penguins. It isn't a big deal at the same point, the visual sucks.

Hey, those penguins are assholes and have been avoiding paying their fair share for decades...dws.

But to your point whatever the motivations for Russia not being on the list, the last thing this Trump Administration has control (or probably care TBH) over is optics/narratives in the press.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Does anything else need be said?

What does this tell the free world? WHAT DOES THIS TELL RUSSIA?

The markets have lost over 12% since Trump took over. That's almost as bad as GWB's first 90 days.

Because we already have sanctions against Russia dumb ass. And even Morning Joe admits that Trump has been tough on Russia.

 

[outside shooter]

We also already have sanctions against other countries that ARE on the list, such as Iran, dbm-ass

 

[ribbont]

I took a look and you’re correct, the SAP dropped 18% but we should look at the entire picture for his remaining two years. The S&P rebounded in 2023 with a 26% gain and continued its rise in 2024 with another 25%. Yes inflation sucked, but let’s not cook stats that only work for a single argument.

Given that my kid #2 is starting school this fall I am worried. I have enough money for each to get through undergrad school, but I’m now worried about grad school at this rate. My middle daughter already has her mind set on law school. She’ll be a freshman this fall at Loyola of Chicago. I’m praying we’ll see a rebound. It’s just anxiety provoking as you know.

As for playing the long game, I’m with you. I’m not one that jumps ship and takes a loss. At times I’ve gone down with the titanic on certain stocks. It hasn’t scared me from putting money in the market, but taught me to be a little more selective. I learned this lesson when I bought Dryships. I was taking advantage of dry shipping that was having a boom because of china’s building. And then the dry Baltic index fell and they stock went from like $100 down to under $5. I was green and didn’t know what to do, so I held onto it. I was experiencing FOMO when I bought it. After that I learned to do my own research. It’s taught me well in fantasy sports too.

Wait, you want me to look at the remaining picture for Biden but it seems you are not willing to do the same for Trump? We have a history of Trump's markets from 2017-2020, +19%, -6. (thanks Fed), +27, +16. We know in late 2018, the market dropped ~20% in 3 months due to interest rate hikes. Stuff like this happens all the time.

As for you daughter, you have 4 years to make up basically 10-12k (you said you had her undergrad covered so that's about 100k and the market has dropped 10-12%). And the first payment isn't due until July or Aug. I bet you'll be fine. If you are that worried, move her money into money market.

 

[ribbont]

I understand that correction aspects of the market happen a ton. It isn't done correcting--if that is even what this is. These were policy decisions that drove the market down, and it will keep going down ---Market set for a 1400 drop today with only China announcing its 34% tariffs on all US goods. We haven't seen what the EU and Canada will do at this point. At what point does a correction become a bed shitting moment?

I represent one of the largest US electrical engineering and contracting firms--we rewrote their standard terms and conditions 3 weeks ago to include a paragraph regarding potential tariffs and building a pricing matrix based upon % of tariffs. In the last week, two projects in the middle of design development were cancelled because of escalation of materials costs that exists now (copper/steel/lumber), and the guaranteed further increase from tariffs.

These are clear policy decisions that will weigh heavily for months--not just simple corrections.

And we have seen this before. As I have stated in countless threads and linked a study from the SF Fed Reserve Bank, Biden's policy decisions on oil, ARP, IRA , and the bi-partisan $900B relief bill of Dec 2020 ushered in an inflationary time that is still having a negative impact on us 4+ years later. So yes, these decisions will weigh heavily for months, probably years. But how it turns out, we don't know.

 

[Eppy99]

Wait, you want me to look at the remaining picture for Biden but it seems you are not willing to do the same for Trump? We have a history of Trump's markets from 2017-2020, +19%, -6. (thanks Fed), +27, +16. We know in late 2018, the market dropped ~20% in 3 months due to interest rate hikes. Stuff like this happens all the time.

As for you daughter, you have 4 years to make up basically 10-12k (you said you had her undergrad covered so that's about 100k and the market has dropped 10-12%). And the first payment isn't due until July or Aug. I bet you'll be fine. If you are that worried, move her money into money market.

No offense, but I was responding to your first post which singled out Biden only. I’m sure I could have done the same for Trump. But you’re correct the first 4 years the market was positive.

I agree if the market rebounds soon this shouldn’t be a big deal. But these are uncertain times. We’ve never had an administration try to do what Trump is doing during my lifetime. This obviously is a knee jerk reaction, but I think it has merit and of course the market doesn’t like insecurity.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

6. (thanks Fed

So the Fed should just keep expansionary monetary policy in place forever? Seems like a great idea when growth is accelerating.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

And we have seen this before. As I have stated in countless threads and linked a study from the SF Fed Reserve Bank, Biden's policy decisions on oil, ARP, IRA , and the bi-partisan $900B relief bill of Dec 2020 ushered in an inflationary time that is still having a negative impact on us 4+ years later. So yes, these decisions will weigh heavily for months, probably years. But how it turns out, we don't know.

You can take off your party glasses and agree that Biden’s policies were not sound (pretty sure I’ve been complaining about them for the last four years), while also admitting the Trump’s current fiscal policy is anti-growth. That’s the antithesis of how he ran his first term.

 

[ribbont]

No offense, but I was responding to your first post which singled out Biden only. I’m sure I could have done the same for Trump. But you’re correct the first 4 years the market was positive.

I agree if the market rebounds soon this shouldn’t be a big deal. But these are uncertain times. We’ve never had an administration try to do what Trump is doing during my lifetime. This obviously is a knee jerk reaction, but I think it has merit and of course the market doesn’t like insecurity.

True, we haven't seen this but we never went thru a Y2K, or an attack on our soil like 9/11, or a financial crisis, or a pandemic, or Obama taking over healthcare, or Biden wanting to destroy the oil industry, or this or that. I try not to get worked up about these things. I believe the US is bigger than any one president and we will be fine in the long run.

 

[ribbont]

So the Fed should just keep expansionary monetary policy in place forever? Seems like a great idea when growth is accelerating.

I didn't say that. But I didn't think the Fed needed to raise rates 4 times in 4q 2018. Only to cut them in 2019.

 

[ribbont]

You can take off your party glasses and agree that Biden’s policies were not sound (pretty sure I’ve been complaining about them for the last four years), while also admitting the Trump’s current fiscal policy is anti-growth. That’s the antithesis of how he ran his first term.

I can't say anything yet about Trump's current policies as they have not been implemented. I don't like the tariffs, at least not at this point, but it's been a little over 2 months and it's too soon to tell what affect his policies will have in '26, '27, etc.

 

[iuwclurker]

 

[BCCHoosier]

True, we haven't seen this but we never went thru a Y2K, or an attack on our soil like 9/11, or a financial crisis, or a pandemic, or Obama taking over healthcare, or Biden wanting to destroy the oil industry, or this or that. I try not to get worked up about these things. I believe the US is bigger than any one president and we will be fine in the long run.

I like your reasonable posting but not sure I agree Biden tried to destroy oil industry. Oil output exceeded Trump era, permits in the Gulf and public land, Willow Project in Alaska, etc.

I know he put the brakes on Keystone and did emphasize alternative energy, but not sure saying he tried to destroy oil is fair.

 

[ribbont]

I like your reasonable posting but not sure I agree Biden tried to destroy oil industry. Oil output exceeded Trump era, permits in the Gulf and public land, Willow Project in Alaska, etc.

I know he put the brakes on Keystone and did emphasize alternative energy, but not sure saying he tried to destroy oil is fair.

Just taking the man at his word. He said it was a goal of his.

 

[outside shooter]

Just taking the man at his word. He said it was a goal of his.

No, a goal was increasing alternative energy production, while also being the most drill-baby-drill president in US history

 

[ribbont]

No, a goal was increasing alternative energy production, while also being the most drill-baby-drill president in US history

From AP story:

Biden denied the donor’s association to the fossil fuel industry before calling the young woman “kiddo” and taking her hand. He said, “I want you to look at my eyes. I guarantee you. I guarantee you. We’re going to end fossil fuel.”

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

I can't say anything yet about Trump's current policies as they have not been implemented. I don't like the tariffs, at least not at this point, but it's been a little over 2 months and it's too soon to tell what affect his policies will have in '26, '27, etc.

While I agree not all is known and played out, his actions thus far are anti-growth, which is not what he championed but previously. That’s why the markets are reacting the way they are.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

 

[ribbont]

While I agree not all is known and played out, his actions thus far are anti-growth, which is not what he championed but previously. That’s why the markets are reacting the way they are.

Well, he did an EO for energy: pro-growth. He has deregulated: pro-growth. He has DOGE cutting spending: pro- growth. He wants to cut taxes: pro-growth.

I wish he would have waited to do tariffs (since he's hell bent to do them) AFTER these other moves had time to bake in. Biden handed Trump a weakening economy so to me, tariffs could have waited.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

He has DOGE cutting spending: pro- growth

Cutting government spending and tariffs are anti-growth. Economic definitions explain this rather clearly.

not only that, the way in which these things have been done have caused business decision making to grind to a halt. We should expect serious slowing of Capex and business investment in the coming months.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

 

[ribbont]

Cutting government spending and tariffs are anti-growth. Economic definitions explain this rather clearly.

not only that, the way in which these things have been done have caused business decision making to grind to a halt. We should expect serious slowing of Capex and business investment in the coming months.

Cutting govt spending is not anti-growth. Less spending means less borrowing which leads to more capital for the private sector and lower rates. It also means less chance of tax increases leaving more capital for the private sector. Finally, lower spending can help keep inflation lower.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I like your reasonable posting but not sure I agree Biden tried to destroy oil industry. Oil output exceeded Trump era, permits in the Gulf and public land, Willow Project in Alaska, etc.

I know he put the brakes on Keystone and did emphasize alternative energy, but not sure saying he tried to destroy oil is fair.

It’s fair. His words and actions. Over 200 of them. He lost the house. And thankfully manchin stopped him. Until that point he was the worst president in modern history. And it’s not close. The people pushing his buttons are still waiting in the wings. It makes trump’s actions all the more worrisome

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Cutting govt spending is not anti-growth. Less spending means less borrowing which leads to more capital for the private sector and lower rates. It also means less chance of tax increases leaving more capital for the private sector. Finally, lower spending can help keep inflation lower.

Brush up on your formula

GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)

Right now, two of those are getting hammered. I about to be next bc of uncertainty.

 

[snarlcakes]

Cutting government spending and tariffs are anti-growth.

 

[IUclover]

Anyone else upgrade their Toyota this week?

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Do you want to confuse fiscal and monetary policy again?

 

[ribbont]

Brush up on your formula

GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)

Right now, two of those are getting hammered. I about to be next bc of uncertainty.

Yep. But currently excess G is hurting I. In the short term, G spending can boost GDP, but long term, if excessive, it negatively impacts private investment, increases inflation, and impact tax policy.