Let me start off by saying I'm in the camp of if we can get
a sure fire proven winner to come next year, I'm ready to make a change. For
the money CTC is getting (paid as a top 10 coach) we are not getting our money's
worth. However, I'd only put a very few in that category. Stevens, Donovan, and
Marshall come to mind. I don't think our program can handle taking another risk
on an up and comer like Archie Miller, Ben Jacobsen, or Dane Fife.
CTC has some well documented negatives, and
those have been discussed ad naseum on this board. So I decided to ask myself a different question, "If I was CTC agent, and had to make my best case for why should
CTC be granted another year or two, what would I say to Fred Glass?" So here
goes
The case for Tom Crean:
Earns some good will for the clean-up and rebuilding job he
did after Sampson. Not many were ready to sign on for that job.Recruits good kids and a clean program has been clean (with
one major exception earlier this year)Great academics and APR scores; players graduate, often
earlySeems to develop players well as individuals. VO, Cody, and Noah all improved their draft stock at IU. some dramatically.Good representative of the university - i.e. speaking,
appearances, alumni events, marketing, out in the community, etc.Now, on to the basketball court. I know some don't agree,
but I think he gets a pass for the first three years because of the rebuild.
Therefore, in the past 4 years: 3 20+ win seasons in the past 4 years
3 NCAA tourney appearances last 4 years
2 Sweet 16s in the past 4 years (more in past 4 years than
Brey, Shaka Smart, Tony Bennett, Mark Few, Jay Wright, Jamie Dixon)
He can coach offense while some may not like dribble drive
and long for more screening and motion; statistically he gets results. In the
past 4 years Indiana has been top 10 in offensive efficiency 3 out of 4 years.There is evidence that he has put together a good staff. 5
former head coaches are around the staff.I've heard some say Crean only hires old friends, but this
isn't exactly a young impressionable staff that he has put together.6 staffers (including Wardle, Buzz, Seltzer, McClain) have
moved from being his assistant to being D1 head coaching gigs.Recruiting - he seems to be acknowledged as a pretty good
recruiter. Now obviously he had a big whiff with big men recently and I'd like
to see more Indiana kids, but generally this seems to be a strength.
Remember, Glass extended the contract in 2011-12. This was
after our surprise Sweet 16 run, we were preseason #1 in the country for Cody's
sophomore year, We beat KY on the Wat Shot, things were trending up and there was even a little fear about
what happens if Izzo leaves for the NBA would CTC leave for MSU? (very
different times, I know).
So what happened in the last 2 years? If I were Tom Crean
and had to provide an explanation of what happened over the past 2 years to
Fred Glass, here is what could be a plausible explanation:
In order to build the program back up CTC didn't have a
chance to balance classes and develop depth. It was survival mode and getting
quality players to come into a mess. This is understandable but led to some roster
balance problems we are facing today.After 2012-13 - IU lost a lot of minutes and leadership with
Hulls, Watford, and Elston. Cody and Victor left early, which was probable but
not known for sure before the season. That is a lot to recover from, not just
from a points perspective, but also a leadership perspective.2013-2014 - we lost a lot in terms of leadership and Yogi
and Will were not ready or able to step in and provide what was needed for a
young team.2014-2015 - We were a solid team with two huge issues
nobody on the inside and we suck at defense.As to defense, this has never been Crean's strength but I've
also heard Coach K say that freshman need 1 year to learn how to play college
defense. That along with no rim protector may have contributed to the
historically bad defense.But this team was build assuming we would have Noah, Fisher, or Trey L.As to the big men Imagine this team with Vonleh, Fisher, Lyles, Goodluck, or
another legitimate 6-10+ big man who could get us 10 points, 8 boards, and
protect the rim. I'd say that would be worth 3-4 wins this year.So, why don't we have a big man? This is an area where it feels
like we have gotten so close, but a combination of bad luck and close calls
have really put us in a bad spot.
Vonleh - Most people didn't see him as a definite one and
done player coming out of high school. Remember, he actually was young for his
grade and went to college early If he comes back, this is a different team
this year.
Luke Fisher - he would also be a cornerstone to build around
his transfer was a surprise to CTC. This year he averaged 11 points, 5 boards,
2 blocks for Marquette. That would have been nice.
Devin Davis: losing him this year was a blow to our depth if
nothing else. Not that he is an ideal solution in the point, but he was our
best returning rebounder and interior defender from last year.
Near Misses: we came very close to landing Goodluck O; Trey
Lyles, Ray Spaulding all of whom would really help our immediate gap.
Strange Signings: I really think Priller and April were
panic move signings but understandable panic moves. Remember, when they were
signed, we didn't have Holt. I think CTC basically took a flyer on landing some
size at least practice bodies because at one point last year, we didn't have
enough players for a 5 on 5 practice. I don't expect them to come back next year and if CTC has been honest with them since the beginning, i don't have a huge problem with that..
So anyway. The point of this exercise for me was at least to
say while I have my doubts about CTC long term, he is not as bad a coach as
many on here believe and maybe more importantly, if a few things go differently
(Luke F doesn't transfer Trey Lyles follows through on his commitment and
enrolls, Noah stays for 2 years), this is a very different team and record.
I also think it is very difficult once a fanbase has turned on a coach to ever get that turned back around but we will see.
I'd love to hear other thoughts Please save the
comments about me being okay with mediocrity or that CTC
claps too much .
a sure fire proven winner to come next year, I'm ready to make a change. For
the money CTC is getting (paid as a top 10 coach) we are not getting our money's
worth. However, I'd only put a very few in that category. Stevens, Donovan, and
Marshall come to mind. I don't think our program can handle taking another risk
on an up and comer like Archie Miller, Ben Jacobsen, or Dane Fife.
CTC has some well documented negatives, and
those have been discussed ad naseum on this board. So I decided to ask myself a different question, "If I was CTC agent, and had to make my best case for why should
CTC be granted another year or two, what would I say to Fred Glass?" So here
goes
The case for Tom Crean:
Earns some good will for the clean-up and rebuilding job he
did after Sampson. Not many were ready to sign on for that job.Recruits good kids and a clean program has been clean (with
one major exception earlier this year)Great academics and APR scores; players graduate, often
earlySeems to develop players well as individuals. VO, Cody, and Noah all improved their draft stock at IU. some dramatically.Good representative of the university - i.e. speaking,
appearances, alumni events, marketing, out in the community, etc.Now, on to the basketball court. I know some don't agree,
but I think he gets a pass for the first three years because of the rebuild.
Therefore, in the past 4 years: 3 20+ win seasons in the past 4 years
3 NCAA tourney appearances last 4 years
2 Sweet 16s in the past 4 years (more in past 4 years than
Brey, Shaka Smart, Tony Bennett, Mark Few, Jay Wright, Jamie Dixon)
He can coach offense while some may not like dribble drive
and long for more screening and motion; statistically he gets results. In the
past 4 years Indiana has been top 10 in offensive efficiency 3 out of 4 years.There is evidence that he has put together a good staff. 5
former head coaches are around the staff.I've heard some say Crean only hires old friends, but this
isn't exactly a young impressionable staff that he has put together.6 staffers (including Wardle, Buzz, Seltzer, McClain) have
moved from being his assistant to being D1 head coaching gigs.Recruiting - he seems to be acknowledged as a pretty good
recruiter. Now obviously he had a big whiff with big men recently and I'd like
to see more Indiana kids, but generally this seems to be a strength.
Remember, Glass extended the contract in 2011-12. This was
after our surprise Sweet 16 run, we were preseason #1 in the country for Cody's
sophomore year, We beat KY on the Wat Shot, things were trending up and there was even a little fear about
what happens if Izzo leaves for the NBA would CTC leave for MSU? (very
different times, I know).
So what happened in the last 2 years? If I were Tom Crean
and had to provide an explanation of what happened over the past 2 years to
Fred Glass, here is what could be a plausible explanation:
In order to build the program back up CTC didn't have a
chance to balance classes and develop depth. It was survival mode and getting
quality players to come into a mess. This is understandable but led to some roster
balance problems we are facing today.After 2012-13 - IU lost a lot of minutes and leadership with
Hulls, Watford, and Elston. Cody and Victor left early, which was probable but
not known for sure before the season. That is a lot to recover from, not just
from a points perspective, but also a leadership perspective.2013-2014 - we lost a lot in terms of leadership and Yogi
and Will were not ready or able to step in and provide what was needed for a
young team.2014-2015 - We were a solid team with two huge issues
nobody on the inside and we suck at defense.As to defense, this has never been Crean's strength but I've
also heard Coach K say that freshman need 1 year to learn how to play college
defense. That along with no rim protector may have contributed to the
historically bad defense.But this team was build assuming we would have Noah, Fisher, or Trey L.As to the big men Imagine this team with Vonleh, Fisher, Lyles, Goodluck, or
another legitimate 6-10+ big man who could get us 10 points, 8 boards, and
protect the rim. I'd say that would be worth 3-4 wins this year.So, why don't we have a big man? This is an area where it feels
like we have gotten so close, but a combination of bad luck and close calls
have really put us in a bad spot.
Vonleh - Most people didn't see him as a definite one and
done player coming out of high school. Remember, he actually was young for his
grade and went to college early If he comes back, this is a different team
this year.
Luke Fisher - he would also be a cornerstone to build around
his transfer was a surprise to CTC. This year he averaged 11 points, 5 boards,
2 blocks for Marquette. That would have been nice.
Devin Davis: losing him this year was a blow to our depth if
nothing else. Not that he is an ideal solution in the point, but he was our
best returning rebounder and interior defender from last year.
Near Misses: we came very close to landing Goodluck O; Trey
Lyles, Ray Spaulding all of whom would really help our immediate gap.
Strange Signings: I really think Priller and April were
panic move signings but understandable panic moves. Remember, when they were
signed, we didn't have Holt. I think CTC basically took a flyer on landing some
size at least practice bodies because at one point last year, we didn't have
enough players for a 5 on 5 practice. I don't expect them to come back next year and if CTC has been honest with them since the beginning, i don't have a huge problem with that..
So anyway. The point of this exercise for me was at least to
say while I have my doubts about CTC long term, he is not as bad a coach as
many on here believe and maybe more importantly, if a few things go differently
(Luke F doesn't transfer Trey Lyles follows through on his commitment and
enrolls, Noah stays for 2 years), this is a very different team and record.
I also think it is very difficult once a fanbase has turned on a coach to ever get that turned back around but we will see.
I'd love to hear other thoughts Please save the
comments about me being okay with mediocrity or that CTC
claps too much .
