I get the whole "MSU is much better in March" narrative, but this MSU team (that just lost to Minnie) is just not quite that good. Their metrics (NET, Kenpom, etc.) are much better than their record.
They have left:
Illinois
@PSU
@Mich
Iowa
OSU
@PU
NW
@IU
That's a pretty nasty slate. I could see them dropping five of those games (Ill, @PSU, @PU, NW, @IU). That leaves them at 17-14 going into the BTT with only 2 quad 1 wins (Baylor, ISU...and ISU is just one bad shooting night away from picking up a Quad 2 loss and dropping out of the top 25 in the NET).
That's 10 seed territory at best.