I'm not so sure about that. I think we're in pretty good shape
even if we only finish with 20. The issue is that the bubble (as it has been since the expansion to 68 teams) is extremely soft. I was playing around with some bracket numbers and was struggling to even find more than two teams that would be in the "first four out" let along the "next four out."
The SEC is a mess, because for all intents and purposes, it's UK and the 13 dwarfs. ARK and UGA are likely to get in, but beyond that there's a lot of mediocrity and ineptitude. The Pac-12 is just as bad--they might only get three in themselves (ARIZ, UTAH and STAN). And I don't see any mid-major conferences getting more than one in (I don't consider the Missouri Valley or the A-10 to be mid-majors).
So we're battling primarily with middling high-major teams (SYR in the ACC, MICH in the B1G, DEP/XAV in the Big East, KSU in the B12, BYU/SMC in the WCC, CSU in the MWC, TLSA/TEM/CONN in the AAC, and the logjam in the SEC--ALA/TENN/A&M/MISS/LSU). I think our resume compares favorably to all of those teams even if we stumble a bit. Obviously I hope we don't, but we've built up some equity with the wins over MD/BUT/SMU and two true road wins [some teams would kill to be 3-3 in R/N games]). Was our OOC sked soft? Sure. But that is a black mark amidst a sea of white marks.
This post was edited on 1/24 4:35 PM by SRIV94