I was doing some research about the one-and-done potential of our offers and decided to share it. Specifically 2018 point guards after I saw this quote by Darius Garland: "If I have the chance to go one-and-done, I’ll take it. If it takes me two, I just want to get there. That’s my ultimate goal." We have seen the benefits of four-year college players (Yogi, most recently), and the downfall of taking a risk on a one-and-done (Noah Vonleh --- that was a wildly forgettable season for me). Since I've been writing about the NBA draft on a Bulls website, I've had prospects on my mind.
Before I begin, it's of utmost importance to site the NBA's amended CBA and the issuance of two "two-way contracts" to each of the 30 teams. Under said contract, these players earn $75k guaranteed, with the ability to make upwards of a quarter million if they get "called up" from the D-League to the NBA. That is a higher starting salary than what I landed after graduating from IU, and it wasn't even my dream job. 60 extra slots to play professional basketball domestically, read into it what you will. Here we go.
Darius Garland, 6-foot, 155lb: We'll start with Garland since he outright said his ultimate goal is to play in the pros. Kansas senior Frank Mason is the only guard (at 5-foot-11) that is smaller than Garland projected to get drafted this year. Since 2013, Tyler Ulis is the only guard to get drafted who is aged 20 or younger, and 6-foot-1 or shorter. Garland will need to play a flawless freshman season while showing the maturity to lead a team if he wants to be a one-and-done. Or he has to grow - then everything changes. I think the safest bet is to say he'll leave for the NBA after two college seasons (like Ulis) because he is a superior talent and will be aggressively pursuing his "ultimate goal". In other words, Archie will need another PG in 2020, with a legitimate emergency plan for 2019 if Garland is his guy. I fully trust our staff in any situation; just offering my two cents.
Jalen Carey, 6-foot-4, 170lb: Carey has the game-changing advantage of height on his side. Rivals has him at 53, but I could see him rising beyond that if he plays well and stays healthy his senior year. Carey can play both on and off the ball, but IIRC he would like to play the point. His quotes consist mostly of his vows to become a better player. I only found one instance of him mentioning the pros when he said that, if he went to Notre Dame, TJ Gibbs could help him "get to the next level." This is a curious case as I don't like to read too much into highlight reels. He has one-and-done potential, or he could be a three-year player. Let's go down the middle and say we get two years of Carey. If he wants to be "the guy" at point, Archie will have to have an emergency plan in case he goes pro. If he'll play off the ball things change.
Rob Phinisee, 5-foot-11, 155lb: Though this will change, Phinisee is currently ranked 111 spots behind Garland on Rivals. From everything I've absorbed, the gap isn't that wide. Rob is shorter than Darius, making it even harder for him to get drafted unless he has a growth spurt. I think it's clear that Phinisee is the best chance at landing a three or four-year true point guard. I know @Jordan Wells is a huge fan, and I'm becoming one myself. It's extremely important to weigh longevity over immediate impact.
Davide Moretti, 6-foot-3, 170lb: Size on his side and a European flair, Moretti is tough to judge. He is ranked 26th in his age group on Draft Express. Some players ahead of him on this list will be drafted this year, but it is still extremely hard to judge. Davide could thrive in the NCAA and leap to the pros sooner than we think. He will be 20 years old by the conclusion of his first college season if he plays this upcoming year. Maybe he's using the NCAA to showcase his skills for a few months and go pro; maybe not. Either way I have confidence in getting more years out of Phinisee than Moretti. You never know, I'm obviously speculating here.
Langford is likely going to be a one-and-done and maybe some other 2018 offers have plans to go pro, but I'll leave it there. I've rambled enough already, but it's fun to speculate. I don't know any of these kids personally, nor have I dug deep into their film. My thought is, if you want a one-and-done, get a wing player because they tend to be more replaceable. I'm sure Archie has a plan for any possible scenario as he places a premium on roster management. But hey, if you have a chance to land a long-term, true point guard --- do it.
Before I begin, it's of utmost importance to site the NBA's amended CBA and the issuance of two "two-way contracts" to each of the 30 teams. Under said contract, these players earn $75k guaranteed, with the ability to make upwards of a quarter million if they get "called up" from the D-League to the NBA. That is a higher starting salary than what I landed after graduating from IU, and it wasn't even my dream job. 60 extra slots to play professional basketball domestically, read into it what you will. Here we go.
Darius Garland, 6-foot, 155lb: We'll start with Garland since he outright said his ultimate goal is to play in the pros. Kansas senior Frank Mason is the only guard (at 5-foot-11) that is smaller than Garland projected to get drafted this year. Since 2013, Tyler Ulis is the only guard to get drafted who is aged 20 or younger, and 6-foot-1 or shorter. Garland will need to play a flawless freshman season while showing the maturity to lead a team if he wants to be a one-and-done. Or he has to grow - then everything changes. I think the safest bet is to say he'll leave for the NBA after two college seasons (like Ulis) because he is a superior talent and will be aggressively pursuing his "ultimate goal". In other words, Archie will need another PG in 2020, with a legitimate emergency plan for 2019 if Garland is his guy. I fully trust our staff in any situation; just offering my two cents.
Jalen Carey, 6-foot-4, 170lb: Carey has the game-changing advantage of height on his side. Rivals has him at 53, but I could see him rising beyond that if he plays well and stays healthy his senior year. Carey can play both on and off the ball, but IIRC he would like to play the point. His quotes consist mostly of his vows to become a better player. I only found one instance of him mentioning the pros when he said that, if he went to Notre Dame, TJ Gibbs could help him "get to the next level." This is a curious case as I don't like to read too much into highlight reels. He has one-and-done potential, or he could be a three-year player. Let's go down the middle and say we get two years of Carey. If he wants to be "the guy" at point, Archie will have to have an emergency plan in case he goes pro. If he'll play off the ball things change.
Rob Phinisee, 5-foot-11, 155lb: Though this will change, Phinisee is currently ranked 111 spots behind Garland on Rivals. From everything I've absorbed, the gap isn't that wide. Rob is shorter than Darius, making it even harder for him to get drafted unless he has a growth spurt. I think it's clear that Phinisee is the best chance at landing a three or four-year true point guard. I know @Jordan Wells is a huge fan, and I'm becoming one myself. It's extremely important to weigh longevity over immediate impact.
Davide Moretti, 6-foot-3, 170lb: Size on his side and a European flair, Moretti is tough to judge. He is ranked 26th in his age group on Draft Express. Some players ahead of him on this list will be drafted this year, but it is still extremely hard to judge. Davide could thrive in the NCAA and leap to the pros sooner than we think. He will be 20 years old by the conclusion of his first college season if he plays this upcoming year. Maybe he's using the NCAA to showcase his skills for a few months and go pro; maybe not. Either way I have confidence in getting more years out of Phinisee than Moretti. You never know, I'm obviously speculating here.
Langford is likely going to be a one-and-done and maybe some other 2018 offers have plans to go pro, but I'll leave it there. I've rambled enough already, but it's fun to speculate. I don't know any of these kids personally, nor have I dug deep into their film. My thought is, if you want a one-and-done, get a wing player because they tend to be more replaceable. I'm sure Archie has a plan for any possible scenario as he places a premium on roster management. But hey, if you have a chance to land a long-term, true point guard --- do it.
