Wasn't suggesting it's throwing darts blindfolded. The question remains: What are the odds of getting a sub-100 all-star or even a 2-deep NBA player? Whether a recruiter can accurately detect sub-100 diamonds is a different discussion.
Of the first team All Americans this season Johnny Davis, Ogbaji, and Keegan Murray all outside the consensus top 100.
On second team Mathurin outside top 100.
On 3rd team Gillespie and Notae outside top 100.
I haven't looked at it in enough detail to say for sure but I suspect that the rating services tend to rely on AAU ball that tends to favor the power game and individual play and maybe undervalues defense. They tend to identify bigs and athletic power players but more often miss less athletic shooters and elite non-power finesse players.
Based on this season's all americans the odds are 5/15=33% of an all american being outside top 100 and for first team all american 60% chance outside top 100.
My conclusion is that definitely worth your time to see as many players as you can outside the Top 100. You have a good chance of finding undervalued and under-recruited players that can hugely impact a program. Everyone looks at Top 100 and so outside Top 100 is an excellent resource for a program that has excellent eyes-on scouting and doesn't over rely on the AAU program.
I looked at 2019 All Americans and again 3 first team outside Top 100-Ja Morant, Rui Hachimura, and Grant Williams.
On 2019 second team All Americans 3 were outside Top 100-Culver, Edwards, and Happ.
