yes. IU can win and I think will.
ND and IU. Both with meh SOS. Both won big, mostly.
ND has better wins in Georgia Tech and Texas A&M but also has the bad (really bad) loss to NIU.
IU has no big wins but won big everything they should.
*IU is hammered on their performance at OSU. Question: if that game was played anywhere other than Columbus, how much of a difference would the score be? IMO about 17-20 pts. IU would not have given up 14 by the ST and their offense would have been much more synced, worth at least one or 2 FG's.
Analysts trumpet ND's running game, but it doesn't look overly utilized so their numbers must be inflated by QB scrambles...just as ours are deflated by the OSU game's sack numbers.
| IU Offense | | ND Offense |
Yards/Completion | 13.5 | | 11.0 |
Rush Play % | 56.3% | | 55.7% |
QB Sacked % | 5.7% | | 4.4% |
Pass Play % | 43.7% | | 44.3% |
Completion % | 67.7% | | 66% |
Int Thrown % | 1.6% | | 1.5% |
Notre Dame's most impressive stat is their ability to limit passing yards. It's looking like it's due more to their secondary than their DL. Based on some of the commentary from ND streamers, they have a less traditional linebacker corps, being more like plus-size Safety/LB combo. IU short passing will be less profitable but should open up some longer rush gainers. The set-up allows them to keep tight man-2-man coverage so they create a lot of incompletions.
| IU Defense | | ND Defense |
Sack % | 7.4% | | 8.1% |
Opp Pass Play % | 53.4% | | 45.5% |
Opp Completion % | 62.5% | | 48.7% |
Opp Int Thrown % | 3.5% | | 5% |
I read this as ND's small linebackers will disrupt IU's favored short and mid passing routes and down field routes will be tightly contested.
IU has to establish a run and force those LB's stay close to defend against the 10+ yards rushes.